Matchday 5 of this season's UEFA Women's Champions League league phase is in the books and there are plenty of talking points beginning to crop up.
OL Lyonnes made light work of Manchester United on Wednesday, while Chelsea hit six past cellar-dwelling Roma.
Elsewhere, Bayern Munich and Oud-Heverlee Leuven both impressed, securing creditable draws away from home, but it's Barcelona that remain top of the table and -- for now -- favorites for the title.
Read on as ESPN experts Emily Keogh, Yash Thakur and Sam Marsden offer their thoughts on some of our burning questions.
- Hamilton: Man Utd's UWCL ambitions tempered by OL Lyonnes' brilliance
- Keogh: Wasteful Wolfsburg allow Madrid to join UWCL contenders
- As it happened: OL Lyonnes beat Man United, Chelsea roll past Roma
Q1: Who will take the final two places in the top 4?
Keogh: With goalkeeper Stina Johannes a possible doubt to face Chelsea after taking a boot to the face against Real Madrid, and their current lack of clinical finishing and poor final touch in front of goal, I am not convinced VfL Wolfsburg will have enough in the tank to defeat Chelsea. That's especially true after the Blues' recent loss to Everton sparked them into a ruthless performance against Roma on Wednesday -- so I think Chelsea will claim third place.
Bayern Munich or Real Madrid are realistically best placed to clinch fourth, while Juventus will face a wounded Manchester United. A draw feels likely between the two teams, who have been pretty evenly matched thus far. Bayern and Madrid both have fairly easy draws against minnows in comparison to their history and financial backing so, assuming they both claim three points, I think Real Madrid will sneak in with their goal difference already significantly higher than Bayern's.
Thakur: I feel Real Madrid are one of the best positioned teams to take one of the spots after their win against Wolfsburg this week. With a final game against FC Twente remaining, Las Blancas will feel confident of securing another three points. Linda Caicedo and Caroline Weir are back to their best and have put the side on their backs again. After a 6-0 win this matchday, Chelsea is the other likely contender for the final two spots. Despite a tricky fixture against former European champions Wolfsburg, Sonia Bompastor's side will feel confident to edge it. However, the last time these two sides met in the UWCL, the She-Wolves beat Chelsea 4-0 and knocked them out of the group stage in 2021-22.
Marsden: Chelsea, with 11 points, are in pole position behind Barcelona and OL Lyonnes, but they have the hardest game of the teams in the chasing pack. If they fail to win away at Wolfsburg, Juventus, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, all on 10 points, are waiting to pounce. A Wolfsburg win could even propel them into the top four, so it's all to play for when it comes to claiming a direct spot in the quarterfinals.
Given Wolfsburg are still in the running, I'm going to pick them to frustrate Chelsea, Juve to fail to beat Manchester United at home and Madrid and Bayern to sneak into the top four. They have the most winnable games on paper -- Madrid at Twente and Bayern at home to Vlerenga -- but do need other results to go their way.
Q2: Bayern have really turned things around since that mauling by Barcelona. What's been the catalyst?
Marsden: A shout out to coach Jos Barcala and the belief demonstrated by the Bayern players to bounce back from that Bara humbling, but it certainly helps when you have the quality of Klara Bhl and Pernille Harder. Harder's scored big goals in big moments, including two more against Atltico this week, but Bhl has been sensational when it comes to driving her team on. With seven assists and one goal, she has more goal contributions than anyone else in the group stage. She has created a whopping 27 chances in five games, 10 more than Lyon's Melchie Dumornay, who ranks second in chance creation in the competition. If Bayern are going to go far in this competition, it's going to be at the feet of Bhl.
Keogh: Realistically, the only way Bayern could have responded to that humbling defeat at the hands of Barcelona was by going on an extended unbeaten run. That crushing loss served as a wake-up call; none of those players would ever want to experience a performance or the emotions that came with it again. In many ways, it jolted them into gear. Since then, individual performances have risen sharply, and the result has been a noticeably improved team as a whole. Their press has become far more cohesive and organised, and their patience, something evident in both meetings with Arsenal last season and this one, has allowed them to withstand pressure with real resilience and grind out results. In the past, Bayern might have crumbled in those moments, so this shift in approach and mentality is clearly paying off.
Thakur: I feel Bayern Munich and Barcala had the worst audition at the European stage that belied their true level. The club has since gone on a 13-game unbeaten run, including 12 straight wins until the draw on Wednesday. Barcala's approach forces them to be slightly braver on the ball and aggressive off it. This urge to play vertical and press high can leave the side exposed in moments. Against Barcelona, all such moments were punished and the team lost morale as the game went on. Since then, the Bavarian giants have put their squad depth -- especially in attacking areas -- to great use. Bhl's otherworldly form has quite literally been the difference maker on multiple occasions. The German winger has been involved in 46% of Bayern's goals this season, creating 20 goals before mid-December.
Q3: Did you expect Juventus to be so good, and Paris Saint-Germain so bad?
Thakur: I feel Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain are two sides of the same coin. The two teams are closer in their performances than the table might suggest. One team has had the lion's share of the fortune compared to the other. Juventus have scored 11 non-penalty goals from a non-penalty expected goals (npxG) value of 7.7 while PSG have three goals from a npxG of 8.1. The Parisian club has conceded 11 times as compared to Juventus' seven times, despite both clubs conceding the same xG so far (6.9). The Turin based club has had some freakish moments, especially in that Lyonnes game, where everything they tried turned to gold. Unfortunately, PSG haven't had that luxury this campaign.
Marsden: Yash is right, the points difference between Juve and PSG is perhaps not completely representative of how matches have always gone, but I also want to take this chance to gloat about suggesting Italy's success at the European Championship last summer could propel Juve on in the Champions League this season. Eight members of that Italy squad played for Juve, who have an experienced squad and will be eyeing a quarterfinal spot at least now. As for PSG, however fine the margins have been, it's unacceptable to only have one point from five games. I did not expect them to be exiting the competition after the league phase -- and certainly not with one game to spare.
Keogh: PSG are probably finally feeling the real repercussions of having their talent pool drained summer after summer by French rivals Lyonnes. It has been a conveyor belt of top players moving from Paris to Lyon, and while Lyonnes have continued to strengthen, PSG have unmistakably regressed. That doesn't excuse their frankly unforgivable performances, but when you compare last season's squad to the one that they have now, the gaps are obvious, and they go a long way toward explaining why this season has unravelled so badly.
As for Juventus, they've grown steadily, keeping pace with the evolution of the women's game without trying to accelerate too quickly, and that patience has paid off. As Sam mentioned, Italy's successful Euros campaign has also boosted development, investment, and overall player quality. On top of that, Juve's smart summer business has ensured they remain competitive. They have assessed the conditions of each of their games well and adapted quickly, which has led to their current standing.
Q4: How impressive have Oud-Heverlee Leuven been this tournament?
Keogh: Reaching the knockout stages in their first-ever European campaign would be an extraordinary achievement, especially for a club that had never even reached the qualifiers before this season. I'm a sucker for a fairytale, and I can't help but hope Leuven complete theirs by making it to the playoffs. It isn't always about the results. They may not beat Arsenal, yet they've already exceeded all expectations with a win and three draws.
In truth, they probably would have been delighted simply to experience their first European adventure, however condescending that might sound from the outside. Perhaps having nothing to lose and an opportunity to shake up the competition without any real expectations is what has aided their impressive run. Having spent a lot of time researching the club for a piece, I can say the project behind their rise is genuinely impressive. And the core group of fans who have been with them every step of the way has made the journey even more special. Their support for the minnows of the competition is what makes this story so heartwarming.
Thakur: Mighty impressive. The debutants from Belgium have been the surprise package with just one loss in five games. They have made themselves a difficult side to score against, conceding just seven times so far. They even managed to keep the mighty Barcelona out for almost the entirety of the first half. Belgian goalkeeper Lowiese Seynhaeve has been a standout performer. She made 11 and 14 saves against Roma and Barcelona respectively and made another six against PSG this matchday. Her spectacular shot stopping skills have saved their blushes on multiple occasions. Unless Valerenga -- without star striker Karina Saevik -- upset Bayern Munich in their final game, the Belgium side have all-but secured their place in the top 12, irrespective of their result against Arsenal in the final matchday.
Marsden: With Christmas coming, shall I play Scrooge? Leuven look set to reach the knockout round and that will be a remarkable and unexpected feat, but hindsight does put a slightly different gloss on their performances. Apart from Barcelona, who they lost to, they haven't played anyone higher than 10th in the standings. Three of their five matches have been against teams who have already been eliminated in PSG, Twente and Roma. Of course, reaching this stage with just one defeat so far is impressive. They should make the next round now -- save defeat to Arsenal next week and an unlikely Vlerenga win at Bayern -- but it's hard to see them causing any major upsets.
