Projecting Tuesday's penultimate CFP top 12

Alabama's black (hoodie) magic continued.

What else can explain the Tide's wild, playoff-saving, SEC-title-game-clinching, penalty-laden win against rival Auburn on Saturday night?

While bubble teams like Miami and Texas were hoping for chaos, 11 of the committee's top 12 teams won during Rivalry Week, leaving Texas A&M the lone team to drop in this week's projection.

And that's it.

With the exception of teams that will play for their respective conference championship games, the rsums are complete. While there will likely be some shuffling as a result of what happens in the conference championship games, the fifth and penultimate ranking on Tuesday night will be the best indicator all season of which teams should feel comfortable heading into Selection Day -- and who might need some help.

Here's a prediction of what the group might do in its fifth ranking on Tuesday night.

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Projecting the top 12

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)

Why they could be here: This is where the selection committee has had the Buckeyes in each of its first four rankings, and beating No. 15 Michigan is only going to further cement their place at the top. It was only Ohio State's second win against a CFP top 25 opponent, along with the season-opening win against Texas, but the committee has been wowed by Ohio State's talent and consistent dominance.

Why they could be lower: It wouldn't make sense for the committee to drop the Buckeyes after beating a ranked rival on the road when Indiana defeated a 2-10 Purdue team, 56-3. Following the Texas A&M loss to Texas on Friday night, though, Indiana entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, but Ohio State was No. 1 in Game Control. The Buckeyes have the lowest schedule strength (No. 54) of the top contenders except Texas Tech (No. 57).

Need to know: Given that Ohio State is entering the Big Ten title game undefeated, it still has a strong chance of finishing in the top four with a first-round bye, even if it loses to Indiana. The top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions.

Up next: Ohio State will face Indiana in the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (12-0)

Why they could be here: This is where the committee has had the Hoosiers for four straight weeks -- looking up at No. 1 Ohio State -- and a lopsided win against 2-10 Purdue is unlikely to change that. The Hoosiers' best win was Oct. 11 at Oregon, and it remains their lone win against a CFP top 25 opponent. Ohio State earned its second win against a ranked opponent when it beat Michigan.

Why they could be higher: It would be surprising for the committee to flip Ohio State and Indiana at this point -- not to mention difficult to justify -- but if they win the Big Ten championship game, it's an easy move. The Hoosiers entered Saturday leading the nation in total efficiency -- just a percentage point ahead of No. 2 Ohio State -- and No. 1 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric.

Need to know: No two teams in the country have better chances of earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, according to ESPN Analytics. Indiana leads the country with a 99.7% chance to earn a bye followed by the Buckeyes at 96.8%. Because the Hoosiers will enter the conference title game undefeated, they still have a strong chance of finishing in the top four, even with a loss.

Up next: Indiana will face Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

3. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1)

Why they could be here: The committee will likely bump the Bulldogs up a spot after their win against rival Georgia Tech and Texas A&M's loss to Texas. Georgia also played Texas, and the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns soundly, 35-10. The committee would consider that common opponent along with Georgia's wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech, though the Jackets could fall out of the CFP top 25 this week.

Why they could be lower: Georgia entered Saturday ranked outside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and has trailed in several games this season. Against Georgia Tech, quarterback Gunner Stockton completed 11 of 21 passes for only 70 yards and an interception.

Need to know: Georgia's win against Georgia Tech was critical because it gives the Bulldogs some margin for error in the SEC championship game if they finish as a two-loss runner-up. Georgia's only regular-season loss was by three points to Alabama on Sept. 27. If they lose a close game to the Tide again, the committee would have a hard time ignoring the head-to-head results, which means Georgia would lose its first-round bye, but not its place in the playoff.

Up next: Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1)

Why they could be here: The Red Raiders brought the sledgehammer down on West Virginia -- in the first half -- and could get a bump into the top four after Texas A&M lost to Texas. The committee has been impressed this season with how consistently dominant the Red Raiders have been, ranking No. 2 in the country with an average points margin of 30.4 points per game. Texas Tech is No. 3 in the country with an average of 42 points per game while holding its opponents to 12.27 points per game, No. 3 in the country.

Why they could be lower: The Aggies have entered the one-loss debate, and how far they fall will be one of the biggest questions for the committee this week. Texas Tech has the worst loss (to Arizona State) of any of the one-loss contenders. Texas Tech also trails the Aggies, Oregon and Ole Miss in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule, according to ESPN Analytics.

Need to know: Texas Tech's chance at a first-round bye depends on whether it wins the Big 12 title. The Red Raiders will face BYU in the Big 12 championship game and should feel secure in their playoff place whether they win or lose. The win against WVU gives them a cushion to earn a CFP spot even as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. Nobody else in the country would be able to claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.

Up next: Texas Tech will face BYU in the Big 12 title game on Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

5. Oregon Ducks (11-1)

Why they could be here: The Ducks could get a small promotion this week if the committee drops the Aggies following their loss to Texas on Friday night. Oregon earned a respectable win at Washington, and has impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Even if the committee keeps the Aggies above Oregon, the Ducks should be in a position to host a first-round home game as one of the committee's highest-ranked one-loss teams on Selection Day.

Why they could be lower: With Texas A&M joining the pack of one-loss teams, it's possible the committee still believes the Aggies are a better team than Oregon, which they have indicated for the past four weeks. How much does a loss to Texas change that perception? The Aggies' road win against Notre Dame is better than Oregon's best win, which was at home against USC.

Need to know: It's possible that by Selection Day, Oregon's only loss is to the Big Ten champs. It's one small factor that could help the committee distinguish between the one-loss teams. Oregon's loss to Indiana would likely be viewed as better than both Texas Tech's loss (Arizona State) and Texas A&M's (Texas), but both were on the road, while the Ducks lost to IU at home.

Up next: Oregon will await the Selection Day results.

6. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1)

Why they could be here: The Aggies only have one win against a team currently in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 win at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. It was carrying them before, and it might not be enough now to keep a first-round bye as one of the top-four teams. The Aggies will likely drop to the 4-6 range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins, including a 35-10 drubbing of Texas, a common opponent. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama), and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. There would be a strong debate, though, about whether the Aggies should fall below Texas Tech and/or Oregon. The Ducks have impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Why they could be higher: The committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies' four road wins. The Aggies entered the weekend with a noticeable edge over Texas Tech in both strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It's possible the committee only drops the Aggies one spot, flipping them with Georgia, which means they'd still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed.

Need to know: The top four seeds and first-round byes are no longer reserved for conference champions, so it's still possible for Texas A&M -- or another at-large team -- to earn a first-round bye without winning its league.

Up next: The Aggies have been knocked out of the SEC championship game, and will wait for Selection Day.

7. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)

Why they could be here: With the win against rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, the Rebels should be a lock for the CFP and are still in position to host a first-round game. Their Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives the Rebels an edge against the Sooners. The Sept. 20 win against Tulane is one of their best wins, as the Green Wave is still leading the Group of 5's playoff contenders after it clinched a spot in the American championship game.

Why they could be higher: It would be a bit surprising to see the Aggies fall as far as No. 7, but some committee members could reward the Rebels for their win against No. 8 Oklahoma more than the Aggies' win against No. 9 Notre Dame. Some could also argue that the Aggies' loss to Texas is worse than the Rebels' loss to Georgia. The Bulldogs hosted both schools, but beat the Rebels 45-35 and the Longhorns 35-10.

Need to know: If Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the playoff, the selection committee could consider that. CFP protocol states the group will consider "other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance." Ole Miss won't miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee surmises the team won't be the same without him.

Up next: Ole Miss will await Selection Day results.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)

Why they could be here: The Sooners' defense continues to play at an elite level, helping compensate for what OU has been lacking on offense. Oklahoma has found ways to win all month, including back-to-back road wins at Tennessee and Alabama. The loss to Ole Miss will keep them behind the Rebels, but the setback against Texas is still likely to be overcome because the Longhorns have a third loss.

Why they could be lower: Oklahoma ranked No. 48 in offensive efficiency heading into Saturday -- a glaring discrepancy from the other CFP contenders. The Sooners are No. 101 in the country with 128.2 rushing yards per game, and the selection committee has noted flaws like that. They have done it with Alabama this year, pointing out the Tide's inability to run the ball since its season-opening loss to FSU.

Need to know: Oklahoma likely locked up a spot in the playoff with its win against LSU, but hosting a first-round game is still fluid. The order can still change on Selection Day with conference championship game results. If Alabama and BYU both win their respective conferences, they could both make significant jumps, and OU would lose its first-round home game if it got bumped out of the top eight. The committee would also consider, though, that Oklahoma won at Alabama on Nov. 15, which could be a road win against the eventual SEC champs.

Up next: The Sooners will await Selection Day results.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)

Why they could be here: The Irish earned a decisive win at Stanford, continuing to leave no doubt they're the better team against unranked competition -- something other contenders struggled with during Rivalry Week. While the committee does compare common opponents -- and both Notre Dame and Miami beat Pitt -- the results were similar enough that it wouldn't sway the committee enough to make a change. Notre Dame beat Pitt 37-15 while Miami beat Pitt 38-7. The committee has used losses to help separate Notre Dame and Miami, as the Irish lost to the Canes and Aggies by a combined four points. Miami's loss to SMU looks worse after the Mustangs collapsed against Cal and were knocked out of the ACC championship game picture.

Why they could be lower: If the committee didn't reward Alabama for its schedule strength yet, it's unlikely to change after the Tide beat Auburn. While there has been much public debate about Miami's head-to-head win against Notre Dame, the bigger conversation in the room has focused on Notre Dame and Alabama.

Need to know: Notre Dame isn't a lock for the CFP, though it would be difficult to imagine the Irish being excluded. If Alabama wins the SEC, though, and jumps Notre Dame, the Irish could be in danger of being excluded if two Big 12 teams are in. That could happen if BYU beats Texas Tech and both teams finish in the top 10. That would mean a team currently ranked in the top 10 would have to be excluded to make room for BYU to move in.

Up next: The Irish will await the Selection Day results.

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)

Why they could be here: Alabama will play Georgia in the SEC championship game after punctuating its rsum with a road win against rival Auburn. Alabama continues to have one of the best rsums in the country, including what could be a top-three win at Georgia on Sept. 27. The Oct. 4 win at Vandy continues to boost the Tide's rsum, but Alabama will stay behind Oklahoma for now because of the Nov. 15 home loss to the Sooners. The committee has kept Alabama behind Notre Dame in part because of the Tide's loss to Florida State, which took yet another hit on Saturday after the 5-7 Noles lost to 4-8 rival Florida.

Why they could be higher: The committee has already had an in-depth conversation about Notre Dame and Alabama and made its decision -- and a win against 5-7 Auburn is unlikely to change the votes now. Alabama can definitely leapfrog Notre Dame with an SEC title, though, as it would be one more win against a ranked opponent the independent Irish won't have. The committee would have a difficult decision about how high to rank Alabama if it wins the SEC, though, because of its loss to Oklahoma. Would the head-to-head result keep the Tide behind the Sooners, even with an SEC title?

Need to know: The potential for chaos isn't over. One of the selection committee's biggest decisions could be what to do with Alabama if the Tide finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. Alabama would have lost to Georgia -- a team it beat on the road during the regular season. At No. 10, Alabama is already in a dangerous position if the Big 12 has two teams in the field. Three-loss Alabama could potentially wind up with the same fate as last year -- ranked in the top 12 on Selection Day but excluded during the seeding process to make room for conference champions who are guaranteed spots.

Up next: Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

11. BYU Cougars (11-1)

Why they could be here: The Cougars' lone loss was at Texas Tech, which could be a top-four team on Tuesday. The double overtime road win at Arizona looks a little better with the Wildcats' win against rival Arizona State this week, and the committee will continue to value the 24-21 win against Utah. BYU entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric and No. 6 in total efficiency.

Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami for its convincing 38-7 win against No. 22 Pitt, and the Canes' win against No. 9 Notre Dame trumps anything on BYU's rsum. BYU also hasn't been as consistently dominant as Miami, ranking 14 in Game Control compared to Miami at No. 6 entering Week 14.

Need to know: If BYU doesn't win the Big 12, it's unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the league runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It's not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. It could be as simple as No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 BYU flipping positions on Selection Day. The difference would be that BYU lost to Texas Tech twice, while Alabama would have defeated the eventual SEC champ once -- and it was on the road.

Up next: BYU will face Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game on Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

Why they could be here: The Canes did exactly what they needed to: earned a convincing road win against a ranked Pitt team. They've also shown the committee the consistency it has been looking for. Miami has earned four straight wins by outscoring its opponents 151-41 and still has one of the best wins in the country, against Notre Dame. "I don't think Miami has ever had a problem passing the eye test," committee chair Hunter Yurachek said last week. "When we watch the games and we watch them on film, Miami is a really good team. What we have talked about as a committee in the middle of the season, Miami lacks some consistency especially on the offensive side of the ball. It appears in the last three weeks they have fixed that ..." Now they have to see if it was enough to unseat BYU and Alabama. The committee will also compare the Canes with Texas, and Miami's win against Florida can help separate them from the Longhorns.

Why they could be higher: Miami has scored at least 34 points in each of its past four games, but No. 12 is probably the Canes' ceiling, given there weren't upsets immediately above them. Entering Saturday, Miami was also a notch below Notre Dame in ESPN's Strength of Record, Game Control and Strength of Schedule metrics. The Canes (No. 47) are also significantly behind Alabama (No. 10) in strength of schedule.

Need to know: Virginia and Duke will play for the ACC title, so Miami's only path to the playoff is now through an at-large bid. The committee isn't ignoring the Canes' head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but they're also not only comparing Miami to the Irish. The Canes also need to earn an edge against Alabama and BYU -- two teams the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point.

Up next: Miami will await Selection Day results.

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