The 2025 WNBA season continues to bring plot twists. From expansion teams beating expectations to recent dynasties struggling to break .500 to this year's rookies excelling to last year's marquee rookie rivalries missing in action, this season has defied easy narratives and storylines -- that's part of what has made this such an intriguing campaign.
What we thought we knew ... well, it turns out we didn't.
With that in mind, let's unpack the four biggest surprises -- as well as the three biggest disappointments -- of the season, spinning forward to what the future might hold in each case.
Biggest surprises
Success of the expansion Valkyries
It wasn't clear how high the ceiling would be for the new Golden State Valkyries. The WNBA had not added an expansion team to its ranks since 2008, when the Atlanta Dream went just 4-30 in their debut season. And the six previous expansion clubs went a combined 47-149 (.240), worth 10.6 wins in a modern 44-game WNBA season.
Of course, the league's talent pool has deepened in recent years, and the Valkyries had built their roster around some interesting players. Still, ESPN BET set their preseason win total at only 8.5, the lowest in the league.
It's fair to say Golden State has blown past those expectations, winning nine of its first 16 games before a recent slowdown. Guard Tiffany Hayes has been as reliable as expected, but it's really been the breakouts of Kayla Thornton, Veronica Burton, Temi Fagbenle and Monique Billings, among others, who drove the Valkyries past their projections -- and continue to give them a shot at the playoffs. According to a forecast based on Elo ratings, Golden State is tracking to finish the season with 20.8 wins, more than double its preseason win total.
What's next: Unfortunately, Thornton was injured in mid-July and underwent season-ending knee surgery, a huge blow to Golden State's surprising campaign. The Valkyries needed her scoring and especially her defense, where they've been one of the league's better teams. Now there is even more pressure on Burton -- who is having a strong all-around season with a plus-3.1 estimated RAPTOR rating -- and the rest to keep the playoff push going.
Rookie guards are standing out
The long-standing rule of predicting WNBA rookies is to give forwards, and especially centers, the benefit of the doubt but worry about guards' ability to seamlessly transition into the pro ranks. We have long seen bigs such as Candace Parker, Breanna Stewart, Tina Charles, A'ja Wilson, Lauren Jackson and, more recently, Aliyah Boston hit the ground running in the W, but perimeter prospects such as Kelsey Plum, Sabrina Ionescu and even Caitlin Clark typically take more time to hit their strides in the advanced metrics. When I studied this trend last year, I found that -- among top-five draft picks -- rookie centers averaged a plus-1.5 RAPTOR and rookie forwards a plus-0.6, while rookie guards were below-average at minus-0.5.
So the learning curve for this class was expected to be similarly steep, but it has begun to find its way in the league with comparative ease. Paige Bueckers is on pace to match Clark and Odyssey Sims (2014) for the most Consensus Wins -- a metric that blends the value estimates of RAPTOR, Win Shares and player efficiency rating -- per 44 team games by a rookie guard since Candice Wiggins in 2008. Sonia Citron is just a fraction of a win behind that pace, too. Along with Monique Akoa Makani, each of this year's three most valuable rookies so far are guards.
What's next: If Bueckers follows in the footsteps of Clark to win Rookie of the Year, it will be the first time guards won the honor in consecutive seasons since Diana Taurasi, Temeka Johnson, Seimone Augustus and Armintie Price won it four straight years between 2004 and 2007. This generation of young guards is challenging conventional wisdom about early expectations for the position.
The Dream's dream season
The last time the Dream had either a winning record or a positive point differential was 2018: seven seasons, five head coaches and several roster overhauls ago for a franchise that went a cumulative 71-133 in the intervening years. But after moving on from Tanisha Wright to hire Karl Smesko and shuffling around players in the offseason -- notably adding Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner -- Atlanta had the potential to improve this season. And has it ever.
It ranks third in net (plus-5.3) and offensive ratings (plus-106.1), trailing only the powerhouse Lynx and Liberty in both categories. Despite worries that Jones and Griner were poor fits in Smesko's system, both have played important roles in Atlanta's improvement -- and the holdovers have been even better. Allisha Gray has had flashes of being an MVP candidate, Rhyne Howard continues to be one of the W's best two-way guards and Naz Hillmon and Jordin Canada have improved on last year's RAPTOR scores.
What's next: Howard's knee injury, suffered just before the All-Star break, threatens to slow Atlanta's turnaround season if she's out much longer. She still ranks third on the team in Consensus Wins behind Gray and Jones. But the Dream are 4-3 since losing Howard, and they ought to be good enough to at least snag a top-four seed and have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Azura Stevens, Gabby Williams have leveled up
Every season, it seems at least one player explodes for a career-best performance after years of average to good play. (My favorite example of this was Nneka Ogwumike's sudden transformation from Swiss Army knife supporting star to league MVP with historic advanced metrics in 2016.) This year, we have two such cases: Stevens of the Los Angeles Sparks and Williams of the Seattle Storm.
Both were top-six picks in the 2018 draft but neither averaged double figures in scoring nor posted an estimated RAPTOR above average levels in their prior seasons. Stevens had 9.4 points per game with a minus-0.7 RAPTOR, while Williams scored 7.3 PPG with a minus-0.4 RAPTOR. This year, however, both have dramatically improved on their previous numbers, with Stevens rising to 14.7 points per game with a plus-2.7 RAPTOR and Williams averaging 12.8 points and plus-5.1 marks, all career best rates.
According to Consensus Wins, both rank among the top 20 most valuable players in the league this season, a huge level up for a pair of players who had seldom been top-40 performers in any of their earlier WNBA campaigns.
What's next: For Williams and the Storm, it's about continuing to play an increased supporting scoring role next to Skylar Diggins and Ogwumike while helping to anchor Seattle's elite defense ahead of a very likely playoff trip.
As for Stevens and the Sparks, they're in a more precarious postseason position, fighting with the Mystics and Valkyries for the final spot in the bracket. With her contributions at both ends, Stevens is as important a part of that effort as any L.A. player.
Biggest disappointments
The Caitlin Clark-Angel Reese rivalry has been a nonfactor
Coming off a pair of dueling rookie seasons that helped change the WNBA, Clark and Reese were expected to have another dramatic year. Clark in particular seemed poised to fix her few remaining flaws and have an MVP-level season in 2025, while there were plenty of reasons to believe Reese would become more efficient while continuing her solid rebounding performances. But that isn't how the season has unfolded.
While the opening week matchup between the two was watched by 2.7 million people, making it the WNBA's most viewed regular-season contest since 2000, the rivalry itself was no contest -- Clark and Indiana rolled over Reese and Chicago in both the result and individual stats. Since then, both have faced their share of difficulties.
Clark has played only 12 of Indiana's 27 games since. Given her history of durability, it's surprising how much time Clark has missed this year. Her shooting numbers have also cratered since last season despite improvements in other areas, such as in her assist-to-turnover ratio and defensive metrics. The story of Reese's season, meanwhile, has been the opposite: She is shooting better but with worse efficiency elsewhere and an uncharacteristically poor plus/minus, unable to help the Sky rise above the second-worst net rating in the league.
Worse yet, Clark was unavailable for all subsequent Fever-Sky games and both stars missed the July 27 matchup.
What's next: With Clark still sidelined and the Sky gaining no traction in the playoff chase, there is only one realistic remaining tilt between the pair on the calendar: Sept. 5 in Indiana. But the truth is that while the league keeps moving forward in an era of new popularity, the premier rivalry has had no role this season.
The Aces no longer look like a dynasty
After wrapping up the 2023 WNBA title -- their second championship in as many years -- the Las Vegas Aces ended the playoffs with the highest Elo rating in league history, unseating the legendary 2000 Houston Comets that featured Cynthia Cooper, Sheryl Swoopes and Tina Thompson.
A'ja Wilson and the Aces had reached the mountaintop and played at quite possibly the highest level the women's game had ever seen. But two years later, they have little resemblance to that greatness. After carrying a league-best plus-15.6 net rating and a 1738 Elo when the confetti settled in 2023, their net rating is underwater (minus-0.6), and their Elo (1542) has only recently climbed back above average after spending most of the past month below 1500.
What changed? Well, it's not Wilson. She still ranks among the top-two players in the league, even if a handful of missed games lost her ground in the MVP race against Napheesa Collier. But the team as a whole has taken huge steps back at both ends of the court. Vegas has gone from No. 1 on offense to No. 7 (10.9 points per 100 possessions worse relative to the league) and from No. 1 to No. 9 on defense (6.3 points per 100 worse versus the league), leading to a staggering 17.2-point drop in net efficiency per 100 possessions in two seasons. Jewell Loyd and Chelsea Gray have taken steps back, Plum is with the Sparks and the roster's depth has eroded. Aside from Wilson, Jackie Young and Gray, no other member of the Aces has a positive RAPTOR this season.
What's next: While things were looking surprisingly sketchy for a few moments, the Aces should be in decent shape to return to the playoffs for a seventh consecutive season. But what can they do once they get there? Aside from the edge of having a superstar of Wilson's caliber, nothing in the numbers suggests they're a team to fear on the same level they were a couple years ago. While it is unknown what former All-Star Cheyenne Parker-Tyus can add if she rejoins the club before the playoffs, Las Vegas may not have the depth to dominate anymore.
CBA negotiations remain in flux
While all eyes were supposed to be on Clark and the rest of the WNBA's young talent during this season of increased growth, much of the attention recently has instead focused on the ongoing negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. After a face-to-face summit between WNBPA representatives and commissioner Cathy Engelbert in Indianapolis last month was reportedly characterized as "wasted" and a "missed opportunity," players at the All-Star Game wore T-shirts that read "Pay Us What You Owe Us" while warming up. It was another sign of how much work remains at the negotiating table before the CBA is set to expire on Oct. 31.
While a lockout wouldn't be in either party's interest, at moment when the WNBA is experiencing its greatest levels of investment and fan interest, the thorny questions around how much the players can stake out from that new growth (including skyrocketing league revenue, expansion fees and franchise valuations) remain at the heart of the tensions. Until the parties get closer to a resolution, the off-court business will overshadow much of the basketball being played.
What's next: Like everyone else, we'll be watching to see how the looming deadline shapes the discussions. It's fair to say the next three months will be as pivotal as any in the league's history.
