EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsSince his Week 6 return from a hamstring injury, Caleb Williams has completed 73% of his throws while playing the best football of his career from the pocket, and the Chicago Bears have averaged 31.5 points over this three-game stretch. Williams is taking the available options, which will need to continue versus a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that leans on zone pressures and three-deep coverage under Todd Bowles -- see it fast and get the ball out, as the Buccaneers own a top-five blitz rate.In the run game, D'Andre Swift will continue to see heavy volume, but the Bears aren't the same team on the ground without Kyle Monangai, a pile pusher with high-end burst. And Bowles' unit is the league's best versus the run, allowing only 80 yards per game.On the Buccaneers' side, we have to throw out the Week 8 tape versus the Falcons because of the weather in that one. However, Baker Mayfield, who didn't complete a pass in that matchup, has thrown for only 64 total yards in his first two games back from a thumb injury and will be tasked with managing the pocket versus a Bears front that now features defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. Simmons is a game changer, and Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will get creative, using his blitz fronts to manipulate protection. The critical matchup, however, is Allen's unit against running back Bucky Irving, who has topped the 100-yard rushing mark in three of his past four.Betting outlookThe Buccaneers' defensive identity is built on pressure, so keep an eye on Williams using outlet throws and taking advantage of coach Ben Johnson's screen game. This is where bettors can focus on completion overs while also targeting specific players who work the middle of the field and underneath levels.Yes, I know what Irving is doing right now in the run game for the Bucs, but the Bears' defensive front -- with the addition of Simmons -- is for real. And let's not forget about Mayfield when it comes to perimeter matchups, as the eye discipline of Bears cornerbacks Tyrique Stevenson and Jaylon Johnson can be tested with double moves. Mayfield also has to move in this game to extend plays as a runner versus the Bears' rush.Notable player props, betsNote: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.Caleb Williams completions OVER 20.5 (-120)Bowen: Williams has completed at least 22 passes in each of his past three games, and the line fits here versus the Buccaneers' coverage/pressure plan. Look for Williams to take the under routes and for Ben Johnson to scheme voids for him to attack Tampa Bay's Cover 3.Colston Loveland receiving yards OVER 53.5 (-114)Bowen: Loveland should be a priority target for Williams on Sunday night, running the leveled concepts and finding space on crossers and in-breakers. The second-year tight end has 65 or more yards receiving in three straight games.Luther Burden III receiving yards OVER 65.5 (-110)Liz Loza: Burden's exceptional yards-after-catch ability (third among wideouts in YAC efficiency) allows him to regularly turn short receptions into explosive gains. Though Tampa Bay boasts a strong pass defense, it struggles to limit post-catch yardage, surrendering the fifth-most YAC to wide receivers. Furthermore, the Buccaneers can be had via the inside, allowing the highest catch rate and the third-most receiving yards to the slot. As Chicago's primary slot option, Burden is well positioned to exploit these defensive voids, and he should flirt with 70 receiving yards.
