EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsInjuries play a key role in the (mis)fortunes of every team over the course of the NFL season. Nearly a quarter of the way through the 2026 campaign, the list of star players facing significant injuries is staggering, leaving bettors and bookmakers alike scrambling to adjust.Quarterbacks play the most important position in the game and are, naturally, perennial favorites for Most Valuable Player. Thus far, five quarterbacks who began the season as starters have sustained serious injuries: Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart (who is out for the season).A sampling of names from other offensive skill positions include Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne Jr., A.J. Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and De'Von Achane (who is also out for the season). There have been several big names to go down on the defensive side of the ball as well, though those generally have less impact for betting purposes.Individual games are usually a starting point for sportsbooks when adjusting for injuries. Every player has a value that plays into any given game's line, so when an injury occurs -- whether before a game or during it -- sportsbooks take into account how many points to the spread that player is worth.For example, the Chicago Bears opened as 1.5-point home favorites in lookahead lines for their Week 3 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, but when Williams sustained his hamstring injury in Week 2, the line ultimately moved to Bears +4.5, a five-point swing based essentially on one player.That said, sportsbooks can sometimes overrate a player's importance or underrate a team's resilience in those situations: The Bears are 2-0 straight up and against the spread with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent under center."One of the biggest lessons from this season has been that we've probably undervalued the backups," Caesars Sportsbook's head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN over email. "Time and time again, reserve quarterbacks and 'next men up' have stepped in and performed above expectations, and the book has found itself on the wrong side of more than a few of those results."Feazel says that a star player leaving a game injured means the sportsbook has to adjust its numbers "immediately." The Baltimore Ravens, for example, ended up not covering their pregame line of -11.5 after Jackson left injured against the Tennessee Titans, meaning a confident bettor could have gotten nice value on the Titans spread in the second half, when the Ravens offense scored zero points.Most of the major sportsbooks also now offer some form of injury insurance -- a more popular feature in recent seasons -- that refunds player props should a player leave hurt. However, it often only covers the first half unless bettors pay a premium to cover the whole game.Looking towards futures, a major injury will have an obvious effect on the given player's season statistical props, as well as their odds to win awards.For players that have already been ruled out for the season, like Dart and Achane, their chances to hit their preseason yardage or touchdown props as well as win any awards are already zero. Unfortunately for bettors, those are generally not the type of wagers sportsbooks offer insurance policies on.But then there are players like Williams, Jackson and Chase, who have not been ruled out for the year and will still have their season-long props affected. For yardage and touchdown props, it amounts to another case of bad luck, as players facing a multi-game absence will have a very hard time hitting their preseason numbers.DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that bookmakers clearly cannot account for injuries happening, but rather have to work under the assumption that a player is going to play the whole season and create his props accordingly. From there, all they can do is rework awards and team futures."For us, adjustments galore on awards, adjustments on week-to-week propositions, adjustments on team futures when we know that a quarterback is going to be out an extended period of time. Even if he's out a couple of games and depending on who they're playing, that's probably going to hurt their chances a little," Avello said. "But as far as the season-beginning stuff that we put up, those things are closed and whatever the bettors bet at that point they get."Williams was one of the most popular picks for MVP, showing 12-1 odds coming into the season and shortening to +600 after a dazzling Week 1 performance. His preseason action made him a serious sportsbook liability, but he is now out to 50-1 as he remains sidelined.On the flip side, the Bears' Super Bowl odds immediately fell from 21-1 to 30-1 upon Williams' injury, but they've shortened to 18-1 after consecutive strong showings without him.Jackson -- an MVP favorite -- and Chase -- an Offensive Player of the Year liability -- were both just injured in Week 4 and while their awards odds did take an immediate hit, it's probably too early to tell how the maladies might affect the bigger picture."The traders only react to injuries once the timeline for the absence is confirmed, although small adjustments are made, it's 'let's see what the doctor says' first before making any significant changes," said Feazel.
