EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsNEW YORK -- Following a long, grueling day of tennis, which saw both get pushed to a deciding set, No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka and No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula both advanced to the US Open semifinals and set up a clash for the third year in a row at the Slam.There is much at stake for both players.For Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, it's an opportunity to play for her first major title of the year, in a season that has been marred by subpar results by her standards.And for Pegula, the top-ranked American, the semifinal offers the possibility of revenge over Sabalenka, who defeated her in the same round in 2025 and in the final in 2024. It would also keep her hopes for her first major trophy alive.Here's what you need to know ahead of Thursday's must-see semifinal showdown.The case for SabalenkaThere has been no one more consistent at majors in recent years than the 28-year-old Sabalenka. Starting at Wimbledon in 2021, and stretching through the French Open this year, Sabalenka reached the quarterfinals or better at every Slam she played.During that period, she reached eight finals and won four of them, including two at the US Open. This year marks her sixth consecutive semifinal appearance in New York. So, needless to say, she thrives at the event and knows what it takes to win.After being upset in the round of 16 at Wimbledon in July, it seemed as if a return to the hard court would get her back on track. She had reached the final at the Australian Open in January and won the "Sunshine Double" -- Indian Wells and Miami -- in March. But she didn't have quite the same success in her first two events. She lost in the round of 16 at the Canadian Open, and then again in the same round at the Cincinnati Open. She arrived to New York grasping onto her No. 1 -- with Elena Rybakina, Pegula and Coco Gauff all nipping at her heels -- and without much momentum.But Sabalenka has shown few signs of struggle this fortnight. In her first two matches, she lost a total of eight games. Before the quarterfinals, she hadn't had a match last over 89 minutes, nor had she dropped a set. Against Taylor Townsend in the fourth round, she was challenged initially on serve -- getting broken three times in her first four service games of the match -- before regaining her form. Townsend called her a "really phenomenal player" after their match."There were some times [in the match] where I just had to clap it up," Townsend said of Sabalenka. "I'm like, 'Too good.' That's what happens when you are playing the best players in the world."But on Tuesday, against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, Sabalenka was pushed to the limit. After a roller-coaster opening two sets, Noskova got the break in the deciding set to take a 4-2 lead. While she had looked dejected at previous points in the match, Sabalenka suddenly found another gear. She held her serve and then broke back to level the match at 4-all."I just felt at some point in the third set she was definitely serving better than me and putting so much pressure on me, but I'm glad that I kind of threw that thought away and I was able to focus point by point and literally just try to build something bigger in that moment," she explained after the match. "I got, not lucky, but I'm happy the way I broke her serve at 3-4. I think I really played great intensity level of tennis, and that really gave me so much confidence that I still can get the win in this match."She sealed the match in a deciding-set 10-point tiebreak with a second serve ace for the 7-6 (1), 3-6, 7-6 (10-7) victory. Sabalenka later told reporters she was "super happy" to still be in a position to contend for the three-peat but was determined to "shut down all of the noises" -- something she learned from the Australian Open this year -- and simply focus on her game.While Pegula will be a challenge, Sabalenka has history and experience on her side going into the match. She owns a 9-4 career record over Pegula, including those two previous matches at the US Open and all three of their major meetings. While Sabalenka didn't know who she would be playing when speaking to the media Tuesday, she said she would be excited if it was Pegula."Jessica [is a] really challenging player to play against," she said. "I can say that she really improved a lot in [the] last couple of years, improved her game, really putting me under so much pressure."But I'm loving playing against her, because it's a battle, because it's a fight, and I love being under pressure and going through tough challenges. So playing against her, it's going to be really high-intensity level of tennis."During their 2025 clash in New York, Sabalenka needed to rally after losing the opening set for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory. Their four most recent meetings have all gone three sets.The case for PegulaWhile Sabalenka failed to bring much momentum with her into the US Open, Pegula was perhaps one of the most red-hot and in-form players on tour.After reaching the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, the 32-year-old notched final appearances in both Washington D.C. and Cincinnati, and recorded victories over several top players including Iga Swiatek, Amanda Anisimova and Emma Navarro. Her rock-steady play and calm under pressure made her a legitimate US Open contender as the tournament got underway.Pegula, who won the 1000-level title on the surface in Dubai in February, has been equally impressive in New York. Cruising in her first two matches, including a 6-3, 6-1 drubbing of 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin in the Round of 64, Pegula needed to come back after starting with a 6-1 deficit against Leylah Fernandez in the third round. She upped her level, especially on serve, and found a way to answer in the longer rallies. Her efforts resulted in a 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory."I think I always tell myself just to try and hang on to my serve," Pegula said after the match. "I think that's something that's always important just to keep yourself in that set and then try and give yourself chances on return. To me it's definitely focusing on my service game and kind of just honing in on that and then taking maybe a little bit more risk on the return games."She was more clinical in her fourth-round win over No. 16 Sorana Cirstea, but was tested yet again against Navarro in Tuesday's quarterfinal. Struggling again with her serve to start and recording five double faults, Pegula lost the opening set and, uncharacteristically, appeared visibly frustrated. She forced a decider with a late break of serve in the second set.Pegula fell down an early break in the third set but then switched it on by winning the next four games and holding steady for a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 win. Now with 50 wins on the season, the most by any player on tour, Pegula is ready for her toughest challenge yet.While Sabalenka holds a commanding edge in their rivalry, Pegula said that Sabalenka "pushed [her] to become a better player." At the Berlin Open in June, Pegula and Sabalenka traded sets in the semifinals before Pegula recorded a surprising bagel set in the decider.Pegula said she was going to identify and utilize what had worked for her previously in her matches against Sabalenka."I think that when I've been successful, I've been able to play my best as far as making her move, change direction of the ball, take the ball early, not let her dictate too much, kind of, I don't know, play the best that I'm able to play, which is kind of use her pace, but still be aggressive," she explained. "I think changing the direction of the ball, not getting too predictable, and making her have to move and kind of come up with good shots on the run, and I think that's something I've done really well, yeah, when I've done well against her. I think that's going to be key for me."So, who's going to win?The odds and history are in Sabalenka's favor, and she will surely do everything she can to secure her fifth major title and third at the US Open. Having let the title slip away at the Australian Open earlier this year, she will not want to let another opportunity pass her by.Pegula, however, will have the home crowd firmly on her side. While she doesn't have the same major trophies, or even a winning record against Sabalenka, she has been at this stage at the US Open now twice before and knows what it takes to defeat Sabalenka. Although arguably playing the best tennis of her career, at 32, she is aware her chances to reach another Slam final are limited -- and will not go down without a fight.Ultimately it will be a battle of wills between the passionate and fiery Sabalenka and the cool and composed Pegula. Both have proved they are capable of rallying back, no matter how down and out they might seem, and it could be an epic showing. Sabalenka has the ever-so-slight edge entering the match -- but it could go either way and, like Tuesday's matches, come down to the final point.
