EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsThe season's fourth major -- the Open Championship -- will kick off at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, beginning Thursday. The course figures to play firm and fast with little to no rain in the forecast.Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion and the favorite entering the week, with Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood among other top contenders.Who do our golf experts think will win? What kind of betting advice does Pamela Maldonado have?Jump ahead to: Pamela Maldonado's betting and fantasy advice for the weekExperts' picksMatt Barrie: Matt FitzpatrickHe's been a trendy major championship pick all year and has come up short. Royal Birkdale's firm conditions, plus Fitzpatrick's game, and the final major of the season, make the perfect fit.Tory Cabrera: Scottie SchefflerScheffler hasn't won since his first event of the season -- and he's coming off of his first missed cut in nearly four years. I expect him to take that personally (think Michael Jordan in "The Last Dance" personal). Scheffler finishes the major season with a redemptive lift of the Claret Jug.Michael Collins: Tyrrell HattonHis entertaining self-deprecating antics on the golf course shouldn't take away from his prowess and results. Two of his past three majors in 2026 have resulted in top-seven finishes, and he can now draw inspiration from fellow countryman Aaron Rai on getting his first major win.Michael Eaves: Tommy FleetwoodEurope hasn't had an Open Championship winner since 2019. It's time, and it's beyond time for Fleetwood to finally win his first major.Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroyMcIlroy started the year with the Masters, why not finish it with the Open Championship. He's been T-7 or better in the last three Open Championships and inside the top 5 four times since 2016. He finished T-4 the last time the Open was at Birkdale in 2017. He drove the ball well last week at the Scottish Open and if he can keep that up he'll be in contention for his second Claret Jug.Mark Schlabach: Collin MorikawaThe former Open Championship winner has labored through a bulky back the past several months but has still played championship-level golf. He hits fairways and greens, which is going to matter at Royal Birkdale. Morikawa's short game, particularly his putting, will have to step up a level for him to hoist a Claret Jug.Marty Smith: MorikawaThe 2021 Open Champion is in stellar form, having finished third in his last start at the Travelers. The conditions this week are expected to look very similar to those which he conquered in 2021 at Royal St. George's -- firm and fast. And you don't have to be a bomber this week. You have to be accurate. And Morikawa is second in strokes gained: approach, 5th in fairways hit, 7th in greens hit in regulation and third in birdie average. This is his time.Curtis Strange: FitzpatrickChris Gotterup is hot, but I'm going with Fitzpatrick. Being English, winning in England at Royal Birkdale would be his dream, no better motivation.Paolo Uggetti: Justin RosePerhaps I'm getting caught up in the wrong emotional storyline (see: Fleetwood) but I can't help it. At Augusta earlier this year, Rose felt the green jacket in his hands and let it slip for the second year in a row. At Birkdale, the site of his Open debut 28 years ago where he finished T-4 as an amateur, the vibes are at an all-time high and the course is set up to allow shorter players like Rose to not just compete but win. If the Englishman is going to add a second major, it may not get any better, or any more plausible, than this.Pamela Maldonado's picks and advice for the weekThe final major of the year, The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, for the first time since 2017 and with a new look. The headliner is the course's 7,223 yards, but length isn't the story. The renovation essentially changed how the course plays. Several holes have been reworked, including a revamped closing stretch that now asks players to survive one demanding test after another.The interesting part is that the yardage barely increased but with nearly every hole changing, that affects the use of strategy. The new bunkers and layout force better decision-making rather than using distance.This major will be about placement. The player who can hit a controlled tee shot might have a much easier second shot than someone who flies it into a bunker or into the rough.Pamela Maldonado's picks and advice for the week:Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.My pick to win: Rory McIlroy +850Royal Birkdale is about setting yourself up in the right spot. The fairway bunkers are sitting right where guys want to land their tee shots, so this can become a course management week as much as a ballstriking week. McIlroy has become really good at that, playing much smarter on the links than he was earlier in his career. Whether it's a driver, 3-wood or a long iron off the tee, McIlroy is giving himself good angles to work into the green. There are four par 4s that are over 450 yards, three par 3s around the 200-yard mark, and Rory is one of the best long iron players in the field. He is second from tee-to-green, excellent around the greens and coming off a T7 at the Scottish Open despite losing strokes on approach. McIlroy's ceiling is simply higher than everyone else's.My favorite bet to make the top 10: Matt Fitzpatrick +166This course setup screams Fitz, as he checks every strategic box on it. You don't have to hit every fairway, but you do have to give yourself clean angles. A drive into one of the bunkers is essentially a penalty. Combine smart strategy with complete ballstriking and you get Fitzpatrick. He's in the top 10 on approach, around the green, tee-to-green and second in good drives, which is how often you hit a tee shot that still gives you a good chance on the next shot (whether you hit the fairway or not). Basically, how often do you put yourself in a good position after your tee shot? Fitzpatrick excels at that. You want that quality for links golf because it rewards smart, playable tee shots, not just crazy accuracy.My favorite McIlroy bet: Top past champion +235The approach distances I expect to matter the most this week are 175-plus yards out because there are plenty of second shots with long irons after players club down off the tee. Lower, penetrating shots become a huge weapon when the course is firm and the wind picks up. For this course, strategy and trajectory become a bigger part of the equation. This wager has 14 players as an option with Scheffler as the favorite. McIlroy is worth the bet because he's been one of the best players in the exact areas Royal Birkdale rewards.My favorite Scheffler bet: Round 1 score OVER 68.5 (+102)The course is expected to play firm and fast, which means even a great ball striker such as Scheffler isn't going to be firing at every pin, naturally creating more conservative golf. Plus, he's coming off a missed cut at the Scottish Open. His biggest edge is consistency over 72 holes -- not blitzing the opening round -- and based on his season average, he would need to outperform by roughly 1.5 strokes. The plus money is what makes this interesting.My favorite long shot: Si Woo Kim +4300Full odds:+142 top 20+310 top 10+660 top 5Kim is my favorite data fit: 20th on approach, 13th from tee-to-green, 14th in accuracy, fourth in good drives, and his approach numbers from 175-plus yards are excellent. He has the type of game that can grind out four rounds in difficult Open conditions. He finished T9 at Royal Portrush last week, gaining strokes putting, and he has gaining strokes ballstriking, off the tee and with his irons in five straight starts. The issue is volatility: around the green, and especially putting, is a hit or miss. The Scottish Open showed us what his capability is if he can sink a few putts.Other bets that stand out:Winning score OVER 267.5 (-102)The line is 13-under on a par 70. Birkdale is expected to be firm, brown and fast, making controlling distance tougher. The redesign added length to several holes and turned No. 14 into a par 5, while making No. 15 a long par 3. Overall, it's still intended to be a championship test, not a birdie fest. The forecast is good but by the weekend, the breeze will pick up, drying out the course even more. Firm turf holds more weight than wind speed. The course is different from its 2017 showing, so it could have even more teeth to keep this under.Fantasy golfTop DFS playsSi Woo Kim, $6,900: I like Kim in fantasy too because he can rack up points without needing to win. If his irons are on, he makes enough birdies to smash value, then the $6,900 gives you salary flexibility to pair two elite players without sacrificing much upside.Chris Gotterup, $8,500: He can separate a lineup because his upside comes from making birdies, not just hanging around par. If the driver cooperates, he has the power to take advantage of the par 5s and score in bunches, which is exactly what you're looking for at this price. The concern is accuracy, but when he's 11th in putting, finished T11 at 2026 Scottish Open, won at The Renaissance Club last year and finished third at Royal Portrush, that tells me he clearly sees links golf well. Getting +126 for a top 20 is worth a look too since he's arriving in great form, gaining seven strokes from tee-to-green in back-to-back events.Top DFS fadesTommy Fleetwood, $10,500: Fleetwood has to justify being the third-most expensive golfer. That's a different outlook than "Do I like Fleetwood this week?" Because yes, I do. I like him to contend, but at -132 for a top 20 and +160 for a top 10, I don't love his betting price or his DFS price ... but I see a top 20 in the cards. At above $10K, I'd rather pay up for Rory because I think McIlroy has more win equity. Or save the salary and drop into the next tier. Fleetwood might be one of the best pure links golfers in the field, and his game might fit Birkdale, but his downside is his ceiling. He just wins less often. Grinding out a top-15 finish is more his lane.Alex Fitzpatrick, $7,400: He's playing well (five top 20s since late April), and his approach numbers are excellent (second in the field). I would rather chase more proven upside. He's a solid cut-making candidate, but does he offer the birdie-making ceiling I would want in a large-field format? Losing strokes around the green and putting coming off a missed cut last week at the Scottish Open? Pass.
