EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsAfter the first four round-of-32 games in World Cup history, I think we were all asking the same question:What?!?!?!?Just like we all predicted, the first four teams through to the round of 16 are Brazil ... Canada, Paraguay, and Morocco. Germany lost a shootout for the first time in World Cup history. The Netherlands also lost a shootout -- and OK, fine, they always do that, but the forebears of Total Football played a game where they only had 32% possession, their lowest for any World Cup game on record. Also: Canada are currently the only team in World Cup history with a perfect, 100% win-rate in knockout-round matches.With its 20-something shots per game and its two or three goals, soccer is random enough as is, but introducing an extra single-elimination round to the World Cup has added another layer of volatility to the world's greatest sporting event. The chaos is likely to continue, but even if it doesn't: we're still only four games into this thing, and four games isn't close to enough match-time for us to produce any kind of confident conclusions about who is left.So, we're going to go a little deeper than the collective "what?" that you probably could've heard from outer space right after Morocco forward Ismael Saibari's penalty hit the back of the net. We're going to pinpoint the biggest question for each team that qualifies for the round of 16, and we'll be updating this page as more teams qualify, with the most-recently qualified teams listed at the top.All numbers come courtesy of the stats app Futi or Stats Perform data, unless otherwise noted. All projections cited come from Michael Caley's PADDLIN' model.MoroccoThe big question: Will they keep this up?Let's get this out of the way: Yes, that is an incredibly weak "big" question. And sure, fine, whatever: you could say that about any other team, too. The other ones will be better, I promise. But I'm struggling here because Morocco have been excellent in all four matches so far. If Morocco keep playing like they've played so far, then Zohran Mamdani is going to be right again: they absolutely can win the World Cup.I can't really think of a better are-they-good stress-test than this: Morocco have straight-up outplayed both the Netherlands and Brazil already, producing a 25-to-18 shot margin across those two matches and controlling about two-thirds of the final-third possession.Pick whatever part of the game you want, and they've shown us they can do it: They can build from the back, they can break you down with high possession, they can counter-attack at speed, and they held the Dutch to six shots and just 0.24 expected goals across 120 minutes.The only lingering doubt in my mind, then, is ... should these players be this good? This team has lots of top-level talent, but Achraf Hakimi is the only real star on the roster, and he's a fullback. No one else is a consistent contributor to one of the top club teams in Europe. Bilal El Khannous, Nouassir Mazraoui, Ismael Saibari, and Azzedine Ounahi have been among the best players in the tournament, but no one would've tagged them as such before it started.International soccer is a different game than what we see in England and Spain every weekend, though. It's simpler, different spaces appear, and certain skillsets become more valuable.And sometimes? A collection of players and coaches happen to fit together just so -- skillsets amplify, rather than overlap -- that they produce something well beyond the sum of their parts.ParaguayThe big question: Can they keep scoring first?There really aren't any questions about what to expect from Paraguay. They're an excellent defensive team. They're not going to try to do anything other than sit back, play on the counter, and sneak a goal or two from set plays. If they're allowed to do that, then well, why don't you ask Turkiye and Germany about what it's like to play against them?Paraguay have made 718 low defensive actions so far -- essentially, defensive interventions in their own half -- while no other team had made more than 478 through the first four games of the round of 32. That is, in large part, by design.Of course, you can't just sit back and counter if you're losing -- as we saw when the Paraguayans got obliterated by the USMNT after conceding an own-goal in the seventh minute of their opening match of the tournament. Their low-block defending is good enough to frustrate anyone, but it's really hard to see them going any further if they ever go behind.BrazilThe big question: Uh, what's the plan here guys?While it took until injury time to take the lead over Japan, Brazil were totally dominant in the second half. They took 11 shots to Japan's 1, controlled 80% of the final-third possession, and ultimately deserved the victory.The bigger the circle, the higher the expected-goal value of the attempt:It's just that ... well, there was a first half to the game, too. The collection of chances were roughly even across the first 45 minutes, and Japan went into the break up 1-0.So what changed? The Brazilians finally broke free from the system-obsessed tactical shackles created by European club soccer's global dominance and freestyle'd their way to a victory.Just kidding: they simply smashed the ball into the box over and over and over again until they broke through. Carlo Ancelotti's team attempted 40 crosses against Japan, Brazil's third-most ever in a World Cup match since 1960. And 70% of those crosses came in the second half.In both of their matches against competent, well-coached opposition -- Japan, and the opener against Morocco -- Brazil struggled badly in the first half before Ancelotti made some subs and the team's individual talent eventually got something from both games. Japan's three best players were injured for Monday's match, and they just ran out of steam in the second half.But what happens once the Brazilians meet up with an organized side that also has superstar attacking talent? We're going to find out next round.CanadaThe big question: Can Alphonso Davies play for more than 20 minutes?From a tactical standpoint, we know exactly what Canada are going to do: play like a team funded by an international energy-drink conglomerate.Most teams fall into one of two camps: press high and control the game with possession or sit back and counter attack. Except for his current Canada, and all of the Red Bull teams Jesse Marsch managed in the past. No, they both press high and play incredibly aggressively as soon as they win the ball back.As measured by passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), Canada are one of the 10-most aggressive pressing teams in the tournament. And yet, they're also moving the ball upfield at a rate of 1.85 meters per second -- by far the fastest rate of any team in the tournament. No one else ranks in the top 10 of both metrics.And so the ceiling for Canada here is defined by something quite simple: How much will the greatest player in the history of their country actually play? Davies re-injured his hamstring while playing for Bayern Munich in early May, and he's only featured in 22 total minutes so far this summer. He's the one Canadian player who can break a game open all by himself.
