EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsThe MLB draft process is heating up as it typically does this time of year with college conference tournaments and many high school state tournaments now concluded. With their regular seasons now over, the focus for many key players has shifted to private workouts or playoff games, and rumors are starting to swirl about specific prospects teams are targeting.This week's NCAA tournament regionals will be key for some of the players listed below, but many of those still playing have done enough that a few games won't change their stock dramitically.With industry buzz starting to grow on this year's draft prospects, we've included a most likely pick -- and some Don't be surprised if ... intel on what I am hearing on each team's specific plans. (Since some teams received a 10-pick penalty on their first pick for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, we went 40 picks deep to cover all 30 teams).Here is how the top of the MLB draft could play out on July 11 in Philadelphia.1. Chicago White Sox Roch Cholowsky (Age: 21.3), SS, UCLAThe margin for error for Cholowsky is dropping to where this might just be a 50/50 coin flip. There's a lot of industry buzz that Grady Emerson is preferred by some key White Sox evaluators, but everyone agrees that Cholowsky would win a coinflip because he's just an easier choice with his proximity to the majors, risk profile and hype -- even if his upside seems a bit lower than Emerson's.Further, there seems to be a very clear top three (including Vahn Lackey), and all three of the teams picking at the top seem to feel that way. To project another player breaking into the top three requires one of those teams to (deep breath) feel really strongly about that player, not like what options they have, secure a 75% of slot deal (or close to it) with that player and have a plan (i.e. deals worked out for player(s) who will get to their next pick(s)) to spend those savings. I'd call that a 10% shot at best, so I won't be projecting it to happen.Don't be surprised if: Emerson is the pick here. Seriously, White Sox fans, prepare yourselves mentally that this could happen and don't just assume it's the wrong pick because it's the less famous name. For what it's worth, a lot of scouts think the White Sox will end up taking Illinois prep SS Landon Thome at one of their next few picks. He was 51st in my most recent rankings, and yes, he's the son of Jim Thome, a current White Sox special assistant to the general manager.2. Tampa Bay Rays Grady Emerson (18.4), SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (TX)In this scenario, given the logic laid out above, this would be Emerson or potentially Lackey on a slight bonus discount. I think the Rays lean Emerson in this situation since Lackey isn't incentivized to offer that much of a discount.Don't be surprised if: There is some buzz of Jackson Flora on a larger cut (I think that's possible, but unlikely) as more immediate big league help, with the wild rumor of Kentucky SS Tyler Bell on a huge cut. The Rays drafted Bell out of high school, have been scouting him hard all spring and he is rising into the top half of the first round, but second overall seems too extreme to take seriously for this scenario.3. Minnesota Twins Vahn Lackey (21.0), C, Georgia TechJust like when they had the fifth pick in a five-player top tier in 2023, and landing Walker Jenkins, the Twins are fortunate again to pick third in a three-player top tier. Lackey is the most likely outcome here.Don't be surprised if: Emerson is way more likely to land here than No. 4 if he lasts this long. If the Rays take Lackey or Flora, I don't think Minnesota passes on Emerson. For what it's worth, Texas A&M infielder Chris Hacopian is the wild rumor/big discount name being mentioned here, but I am not taking it seriously as an actual option yet.4. San Francisco Giants Jacob Lombard (18.8), SS, Gulliver Prep HS (FL)The next grouping after the clear top three players is Lombard, Flora and Eric Booth Jr. It seems like all three will go within the next four picks, but the order is still uncertain. I think all three are options here, and yes, the Giants would love to get one of the players projected for the top three picks, but that seems unlikely. I think Lombard has a slight edge, but it's slight.Don't be surprised if: Booth Jr. is the pick. President of baseball operations Buster Posey is heavily involved in this pick, and if he feels strongly about one of those three, he will make the call. He's much more likely to get that feeling about a hitter than a pitcher.5. Pittsburgh Pirates Jackson Flora (21.1), RHP, UC Santa BarbaraI think the Pirates are leaning toward Flora of this group as they would like to help the big league team soon all things being equal, and they just hit the jackpot on a hit-tool-question high school player in Konnor Griffin, so it might come up snake eyes if they try again.Don't be surprised if: Lombard is the pick. I'm slowly coming around to seeing him the same way that some (but not all) teams do, which is as a more athletic, righty-hitting version of Ethan Holliday. You might remember people dunking on Holliday over the winter (well after I laid out the risks and upside then interviewed him about it, and last week contextualized his development path vs. Austin Riley's), but Holliday has a 1.068 OPS and 9 homers in his past 27 games.6. Kansas City Royals Gio Rojas (19.0), LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)Rojas is a cut-rate option here and otherwise might not have real interest until the teens, so he's incentivized to cut a deal.Don't be surprised if: This is the spot where there could be a curveball. The reason I said the three players in the second tier should go in the next four picks is that the Royals could mix in a surprise.I think Lombard is the preference, then Booth Jr. and Rojas are next up in some order. But there's always a surprise in the top 10, and I think this might be the spot. Arkansas slugger Ryder Helfrick also could be an option here.7. Baltimore Orioles Eric Booth Jr. (18.0), CF, Oak Grove HS (MS)I think the O's are looking for Lombard or Booth Jr. -- and I think in that order.Don't be surprised if: I don't really know who their next option is if Lombard, Flora and Booth Jr. are all gone, but scouts continue to point out that Justin Lebron fits their preferences, and this would be his high-water mark; he could be on a deal at this pick.8. Athletics Ryder Helfrick (21.4), C, ArkansasIt's feeling like the board will be giving the A's a college bat here, and Helfrick is perceived as the best of this group. Hacopian, Drew Burress and Lebron are also potential fits, and college pitchers Liam Peterson and Cameron Flukey could fit.Don't be surprised if: Tyler Bell is rising late and is getting some late top-10 interest with a little buzz at this pick.9. Atlanta Braves Drew Burress (21.6), CF, Georgia TechThe Braves tried to sign Burress out of high school, and rumors persist that he's Atlanta's target here if the aforementioned top-six players all don't get here.I think the mix for the A's and Rockies picks above and below will be pretty similar to who the Braves are considering, in a mostly college mix.Don't be surprised if: Rojas also gets some underslot buzz at this pick10. Colorado Rockies Liam Peterson (21.1), RHP, FloridaThis should be as far as Booth Jr. will last if he slides, I think there's also some interest in Jared Grindlinger and this is a high-water mark for Trevor Condon.It's not a college-only focus, but the mix suggests Colorado will take a college player here with some high school picks later on. Peterson or Flukey on the pitching side and the advanced hit/approach names such as Bell all fit.Don't be surprised if: Condon or Grindlinger, both elite contact/on-base types, could be the pick.11. Washington Nationals Jared Grindlinger (17.2), RF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (CA)Grindlinger has been tied to this spot for a while, and I don't think he gets past Pick 15 or so. There seems to be some appetite for risk (i.e. high school, big power or big raw stuff) with a lean toward position players based largely on what this scouting group did when they were working for the Red Sox.Don't be surprised if: Cole Carlon fits the power arm mold this scouting group likes, and Bell's late rise becomes of interest for Washington.12. Los Angeles Angels Chris Hacopian (21.9), 2B, Texas A&MIt's easy to project a college player here with Flukey and Hacopian being the most commonly connected due to their polish, as the Angels have been taking a lot of quick movers under this regime. Hacopian could go as high as eighth and maybe as low as 15th.Don't be surprised if: UCLA ace Logan Reddemann is a stealth option if he gets a clean bill of health and looks good down the stretch.13. St. Louis Cardinals Cole Carlon (21.1), LHP, Arizona StateI'm hearing a lot of names here: power arms such as Carlon and Peterson along and some hit-first position players including Condon, Grindlinger and Bell.Carlon came back after missing a week, so teams will want to check his medicals to make sure all is clear to take him this high, but he could move quickly and rack up strikeouts, like a 6-foot-5 version of current Cardinals pitching prospect Liam Doyle.Don't be surprised if: Bell and Condon seem to be rising with the Cards mentioned as landing spots for both.14. Miami Marlins Tyler Bell (21.0), SS, KentuckyBell's exit velos and pull/lift rates have fueled his recent surge as he gets further away from his left shoulder injury. He has a real shot to sneak into the top 10 or go around here but could also slip into the early 20s if he loses some coin flips.Don't be surprised if: Justin Lebron and Trevor Condon have little in common as players, but both are mentioned here.15. Arizona Diamondbacks Cameron Flukey (21.2), RHP, Coastal CarolinaThe hit-first names and collegiate arms with starter traits all get mentioned here. Flukey could jump a half-dozen picks higher than this with a strong finish to the season since he missed a lot of time with a rib injury.Don't be surprised if: There are several rising college pitchers that could fit here, but Derek Curiel is one of the college bats that also has a shot.16. Texas Rangers Logan Reddemann (21.3), RHP, UCLAI think Reddemann will get a clean bill of health and return in the next few weeks of what will likely be a long postseason run for UCLA, ultimately landing somewhere in the top 20 picks. This is a high-water mark for Texas CF Aiden Robbins.Don't be surprised if: If Tyler Spangler gets a clean bill of health at the combine, there's chatter that this could be his landing spot17. Houston Astros Justin Lebron (21.7), SS, AlabamaLebron's landing spot is really hard to project right now. Models would have him somewhere in the top 10 picks, but evaluators are quite split on his outlook. This seems about as late as he'll fall with Baltimore at the No. 7 pick as his high-water markDon't be surprised if: Watch position players with big power and some athleticism here, such as Sawyer Strosnider, Zion Rose and Aiden Robbins.18. Cincinnati Reds Trevor Condon (18.5), CF, Etowah HS (GA)This is one of the hot spots for Condon and might be his floor; he has been really good down the stretch, and some scouts see Kevin McGonigle in his swing. I also hear some power arms being mentioned for Cincy if Condon doesn't make it.Don't be surprised if: There's buzz that Brody Bumila has interest in the teens, and this is the spot that makes the most sense.19. Cleveland Guardians Ace Reese (21.2), 3B, Mississippi StateCleveland has been leaning into power as a bigger part of their decision-making, and scouts I polled agree that Reese is a better prospect than some similar types (fringy third baseman, good feel for in-game power and patience) in recent drafts, like Andrew Fischer and Brock Wilken.Don't be surprised if: There's a handful of teams on Trey Ebel in the first 30 picks, and it sounds like Cleveland is one of them.20. Boston Red Sox Bo Lowrance (18.8), 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS (SC)This is Lowrance's most rumored and most likely landing spot. In the same way that Condon reminds his most ardent supporters of Kevin McGonigle, more than a few scouts have whispered the name Freddie Freeman when discussing Lowrance.Don't be surprised if: I could see this being a landing spot for Carlon if he slides a bit.21. San Diego Padres Brody Bumila (18.5), LHP, Bishop Feehan HS (MA)You'd be well-served to just mock the Padres drafting the highest-ranked prep lefty on the board; I think this is a floor for Rojas, and I wouldn't be surprised if Logan Schmidt or Carson Bolemon got some nibbles here.Don't be surprised if: Lowrance, Cole Prosek and Rose have been mentioned here if the Padres opt for a position player.22. Detroit Tigers Tyler Spangler (18.8), SS, De La Salle HS (CA)Spangler hasn't played much since a solid summer showcase season because of injury, but many thought he'd comfortably go in the top 15 picks before that. If his medical evaluation at the draft combine goes well, scouts think he'll go in the top 30 picks, maybe even for an overslot bonus to pry him away from Stanford.The Tigers lean heavily into lefty-hitting prep infielders, so in the event Spangler is cleared, this is a natural landing spot.Don't be surprised if: I wonder if the Tigers see a potential loss of Tarik Skubal as an impetus to grab one of the college starters in this area, slightly outside of the norm for their top picks of late.23. Chicago Cubs Cade Townsend (21.2), RHP, Ole MissTownsend has a wider range of landing spots than the healthy college starters, just due to different preferences for the type of pitchers that teams like to take with high picks. I don't think he'll last much beyond this spot, and he fits the kind of arms the Cubs have taken in the past.Don't be surprised if: Rose is rising into this area, and Hunter Dietz also has interest higher than this; both are fits for the Cubs.24. Seattle Mariners Derek Curiel (21.1), CF, LSUI could see the M's being a landing spot for a mid-first-round talent college arm who slides because of injuries (Carlon, Reddemann) or team preferences (Townsend, Mason Edwards, Tegan Kuhns). A few scouts have pointed out that Kuhns has a number of parallels to George Kirby, for what it's worth.There aren't a ton of good prep position players here (maybe just Archer Horn and Spangler, with lots of different takes from team to team) so taking the best college bat value (Curiel, in this scenario) is a safe move.Don't be surprised if: This seems like the floor for Bo Lowrance and would be a great fit/value.25. Milwaukee Brewers Logan Schmidt (18.0), LHP, Ganesha HS (CA)The Brewers keep an open mind on player demographics and tend to favor value. There should be a few intriguing college players who get to this pick, but Schmidt is a 6-4 lefty with projection remaining who has been into the upper-90s and throws strikes.Don't be surprised if: The Brewers surprised many by taking Brady Ebel high last year, and they're rumored to be on his brother Trey this year, too. He'll go in the top two rounds, and this is the Brewers' last pick until No. 66.26. Atlanta Braves Zion Rose (21.1), CF, LouisvilleThe Braves tend to lean toward above-average hit tools at premium positions, and Rose is a solid value pick who could easily go a half-dozen picks above this in another scenario. AJ Gracia and Derek Curiel are also collegiate outfielders who could be fits.Don't be surprised if: The Braves aren't afraid to take a prep pitcher. Logan Schmidt and Carson Bolemon have been mentioned at this pick.27. New York Mets Mason Edwards (21.0), LHP, USCThe Mets are tied to big stuff/strikeout arms (Cade Townsend, Tegan Kuhns) and power bats (Aiden Robbins, Sawyer Strosnider), but Edwards is probably the best value of those that are available in this scenario.Don't be surprised if: This is a high-water mark for Memphis-area prep C Will Brick.28. Houston AstrosAiden Robbins (21.5), CF, TexasThe Astros are on Robbins, and I think Houston will get to choose from a few of the collegiate position players I have going in the next dozen or so picks, along with being a threat to take prep shortstop Archer Horn.Don't be surprised if: Indiana prep C Sean Dunlap is a potential underslot pick here.29. San Francisco Giants: Carson Bolemon (19.3), LHP, Southside Christian HS (SC)30. Kansas City Royals: Hunter Dietz (21.4), LHP, Arkansas31. Arizona Diamondbacks: AJ Gracia (21.7), CF, Virginia32. St. Louis Cardinals: Eric Becker (21.2), SS, Virginia33. Tampa Bay Rays: Archer Horn (18.4), SS, St. Ignatius HS (CA)34. Pittsburgh Pirates: Coleman Borthwick (18.2), RHP, South Walton HS (FL)35. New York Yankees: Cole Prosek (19.1), 3B, Magnolia Heights HS (MS)The Yankees are mostly tied to hitters here, and I keep hearing catchers mentioned, including Will Brick and Daniel Jackson, but Prosek won't last much longer than this pick and is a favorite of many scouts around the industry. Since he's 19 years old on draft day, he doesn't fit the preferences of some teams.Don't be surprised if: the Yankees have a strong development POV on a college hitter that slides such as Strosnider, Caden Sorrell, or Andrew Williamson.36. Philadelphia Phillies: Sawyer Strosnider (21.0), RF, TCUThe Phils are often hunting for upside at high picks and seem like a floor for Bumila along with a landing spot for a power-over hit college bat that slides, which in this scenario is Strosnider.Don't be surprised if: Horn and Spangler are Stanford commits who could end up at school, but if either gets here, the Phillies have a real shot to take one. South Carolina prep SS Taj Marchand is also a stealthy potential underslot pick here37. Colorado Rockies: Tegan Kuhns (21.1), RHP, Tennessee38. Colorado Rockies: James Clark (18.8), SS, St. John Bosco HS (CA)39. Toronto Blue Jays: Gavin Grahovac (21.5), 1B, Texas A&MGrahovac has been described as the "flavor of the month" by a few scouts. That's a positive, meaning of the two dozen players said to "have a shot to go in the comp round" that otherwise go in the second round, Grahovac is the one that might actually land here.Don't be surprised if: The Jays are on a pitching development heater and might try again here with a potential quick-moving starter such as Jack Radel.40. Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Brick (18.1), C, Christian Brothers HS (TN)Brick has been a popular name in the 30s and 40s, and the Dodgers are one of the teams kicking the tires. This is probably the floor for Prosek.Don't be surprised if: The Dodgers target one of the collegiate hitters who need a swing adjustment to unlock their potential, like Andrew Williamson, Caden Sorrell or Sawyer Strosnider.
