The first Grand Slam of the 2026 tennis campaign begins this weekend in Melbourne, and it must be said: The hierarchy has rarely been this clear.
We're used to a small core of players dominating on the men's side, and Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are certainly doing that. Sinner is 32-0 against anyone not named Alcaraz over his past five Slams, while Alcaraz has six Slam titles and won't turn 23 until May; Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer had won a combined three Slams at his age.
Meanwhile, there's a clear top player on the women's side as well: Aryna Sabalenka has lost just two matches in her past six hard-court Slams and has reached the finals in seven of her past 10 hard-court events. What Iga Swiatek has been for a few years on clay, Sabalenka is on hard courts. (Oh yeah, and she beat Swiatek on clay last year, too.)
Nothing's guaranteed during a fortnight, however, and even if we think we know how the Australian Open will end, each Slam gives us a unique ride -- and countless secondary storylines. So, let's buckle up, adjust our sleep schedules and see where the 2026 Aussie Open takes us. Here are the 20 players most likely to make noise over the next two weeks.
The favorites
Jannik Sinner
DraftKings odds: -120 | Tennis Abstract odds: 52.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Ben Shelton (quarterfinals)
The two-time defending Australian Open champion, Sinner can neutralize any point with blistering, deep groundstrokes. He can retrieve any ball in the corner and reestablish his original position in the middle of the court before you've lined up your next shot. He wins more of his first serves than any servebot on the tour. He is basically the answer to, "What if Andy Murray had a dominant offensive game to match his defense?" He has solved almost everything about the game of tennis ... but he has also lost seven of his past nine matches to Carlos Alcaraz.
Sinner won the young titans' last matchup (7-6, 7-5 at the Tour Finals in Riyadh) with particularly big serving, but Alcaraz is the only player who can force him out of his comfortable patterns of play. Sinner appears to have a slightly better draw than Alcaraz -- among other things, he has won eight straight matches against Shelton, his likely first top-10 opponent -- but then again, every draw is friendly for Sinner. It's just a question of whether he finishes first or second.
Carlos Alcaraz
DraftKings odds: +180 | Tennis Abstract odds: 33.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Alex De Minaur or No. 10 Alexander Bublik (quarterfinals)
It took Alcaraz a little while to dial in last year, as he reached the finals of only one of his first five tournaments. But, incredibly, he reached the finals of 10 of his final 11 events of the year. He won the French Open, and after a surprisingly poor performance against Sinner in the Wimbledon final, he took some time off, worked on a Sinner-specific training block, and mostly manhandled Sinner in a four-set US Open finals win.
Alcaraz faces at least a twinge of uncertainty in Melbourne, because he's attempting to complete a career Slam -- he has won each of the other three Slams twice, but he has yet to make it past the Australian Open quarterfinals -- and he's beginning the year without long-term coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, with whom he surprisingly parted ways in December.
Aryna Sabalenka
DraftKings odds: +185 | Tennis Abstract odds: 33.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jasmine Paolini (quarterfinals)
With losses in the Australian and French Open finals and the Wimbledon semis, Sabalenka was facing the completion of perhaps the most unsuccessful great season of all time -- dominant from start to finish, but with no Slam titles on the year. If there was any pressure, however, she didn't show it: She dropped only one set while rolling to her second straight US Open title, and she finished 2025 with 63 tour wins and a commanding lead in the WTA rankings.
Everything has gone Sabalenka's way to start 2026: She plowed through the Brisbane field in her lone tuneup tournament without dropping a set (or even reaching 5-all in a set), and she got a huge break when Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek landed in the same quarter of the Australian Open draw. Sabalenka could still have to go through Coco Gauff in the semis and someone excellent in the finals, but her odds of reaching the semis are comfortably higher than anyone else's.
They love it Down Under
Iga Swiatek
DraftKings odds: +500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 10.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Elena Rybakina or No. 10 Belinda Bencic (quarterfinals)
Swiatek couldn't keep up with Sabalenka in the points race last year, and she had an awful clay season by her standards, failing to reach a final (and falling to Sabalenka at Roland Garros). But Swiatek also won Wimbledon for the first time -- dropping just two total games in the final two matches, no less -- and won 62 matches overall.
The two-time Australian Open semifinalist is now just a title in Melbourne away from a career Slam. But Swiatek lost her past two matches at this year's United Cup (to Gauff and Belinda Bencic), and her draw is rough: She could face two-time champ Naomi Osaka in the fourth round, then Rybakina -- the hottest player on tour not named Sabalenka -- in the quarters.
Coco Gauff
DraftKings odds: +700 | Tennis Abstract odds: 9.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Mirra Andreeva (quarterfinals)
First things first: The draw gods gave us a potential second-round dream matchup between Gauff and 45-year-old Venus Williams. It will require Williams to upset recent top-40 player Olga Danilovic first, but it would be the first meeting between the two in six years, and it would allow us to reminisce about their famous 2019 Wimbledon battle.
No matter who her second-round opponent might be, Gauff should enjoy a solid stay in Melbourne. The 2024 semifinalist, who's still somehow only 21 years old, battled a patchy 2025 campaign full of double faults -- her 10.3% double-fault rate over the past year is by far the worst of any top-50 player -- and high points. Even with service issues, she went 3-2 against Sabalenka and Swiatek, won her first French Open title and reached the finals of three 1000-level tournaments, winning one. She's a threat in any tournament she enters, and she has already scored a win over Swiatek in 2026 (though she's also double-faulting 11.8% of the time).
Elena Rybakina
DraftKings odds: +800 | Tennis Abstract odds: 12.8%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Belinda Bencic (fourth round)
Rybakina's 2025 season was all over the map. The 2022 Wimbledon champion (and 2023 Aussie Open finalist) fell out of the top 10 in April and failed to reach a Slam quarterfinal as she first separated from her suspended coach, then brought him back into the fold. But she won 11 of her final 12 matches of the year and took down four top-five opponents to take the Tour Finals title in Riyadh. She could face a titanic quarterfinal against Swiatek, but when she's fully dialed in, she's a top-three talent at worst.
Novak Djokovic
DraftKings odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Lorenzo Musetti or No. 9 Taylor Fritz (quarterfinals)
At this point, the 38-year-old Djokovic -- a 10-time Australian Open champion and 24-time Slam winner -- is basically a part-time professional. He's also still almost certainly the third-best men's player in the world. He entered only 13 tournaments in 2025, and he relies on his ability to play his way into form in a given draw. That resulted in a few early exits, but it also produced four Slam semifinal appearances in 2025, plus a 27-4 record in his past six tournaments. He has lost five straight matches (and nine straight sets) to Sinner, and Alcaraz manhandled him in the US Open semis, but his capabilities are still incredible.
Naomi Osaka
DraftKings odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Iga Swiatek (fourth round)
After laboring for over a year after her return to the tour in 2024, Osaka finally found the accelerator last summer, reaching the finals in Montreal and the semis of the US Open (sweeping Gauff along the way). The two-time Australian Open champ ran out of steam from there and began 2026 battling illness; she has won only four tour matches since her US Open run. But Osaka is back in the top 20, and her serve is back among the game's elite, maybe trailing only Rybakina's.
Madison Keys
DraftKings odds: +3000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Jessica Pegula (fourth round)
Keys pulled a Reverse Rybakina in 2025. She finally claimed her first Slam title with an epic Australian Open finals win over Sabalenka that was part of a 16-match winning streak that pushed her to fifth in the world. But she went just 19-14 over the rest of the season, and a combination of injuries and poor form meant she didn't win a match after early August. She has looked decent in January, at least, but her draw might require her to beat Pegula and Amanda Anisimova just to return to the semis.
Daniil Medvedev
DraftKings odds: +3000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime (fourth round)
A three-time Australian Open finalist, Medvedev won only 65% of his matches in 2025 and went a shocking 1-4 in Slams, his worst output since 2017. But desperation can sometimes provide a spark: Since falling out of the ATP top 15, he has won 16 of 19 matches with two tour titles. He's back up to 12th, and with almost no Slam points to defend in 2026, he could rise quickly. He also landed in Alexander Zverev's quarter of the draw -- aka the quarter most conducive to a semifinal run. Medvedev turns 30 in February, but it looks like he might have found the shot in the arm he needed.
Alexander Zverev
DraftKings odds: +3500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime (quarterfinals)
With Alcaraz battling inconsistency and Sinner suspended for three months, Zverev had a chance to sneak to the No. 1 ranking for the first time last spring. Instead, he stumbled throughout the clay-court season and missed his window. A three-time Australian Open semifinalist (and a finalist in 2025), his ultra-consistent serve and suffer-ball capabilities make him hard to upset. But he also went just 4-11 against the top 10 and 1-6 against the top five in 2025. Is there anything he can do to reverse that trend?
Ben Shelton
DraftKings odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Jannik Sinner (quarterfinals)
A 2025 Australian Open semifinalist, the boisterous and athletic 23-year-old was on his way to the best year of his career before a painful shoulder injury forced him out of the US Open in the third round. It wasn't as serious as feared, but he lost seven of 10 matches to finish 2025, and he's a bit of a mystery entering 2026. The upside remains unquestionable.
Others: Karolina Muchova (2021 semifinalist, +5000), Elina Svitolina (2025 quarterfinalist, +6500), Elise Mertens (2018 semifinalist, +10000), Emma Navarro (2025 quarterfinalist, +10000), Paula Badosa (2025 semifinalist, +13000), Lorenzo Sonego (2025 quarterfinalist, +13000), Karen Khachanov (2023 semifinalist, +15000), Tommy Paul (2023 semifinalist, +15000), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (2025 quarterfinalist, +15000), Stefanos Tsitsipas (2023 finalist, +15000), Sofia Kenin (2020 champion, +20000), Dayana Yastremska (2024 semifinalist, +25000), Marin Cilic (2018 finalist, +30000), Karolina Pliskova (2019 semifinalist, +30000), Stan Wawrinka (2024 champion, +30000), Venus Williams (two-time finalist, +30000), Magda Linette (2023 semifinalist, +50000)
Only need a few breaks
Amanda Anisimova
DraftKings odds: +900 | Tennis Abstract odds: 6.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Jessica Pegula or No. 9 Madison Keys (quarterfinals)
Despite all of Sabalenka's success, you could make the case that Anisimova was the story of 2025. After taking most of 2023 off from the tour and enjoying merely decent results in 2024, she won 47 matches and went 4-4 against Sabalenka, Swiatek and Gauff. And after suffering a humiliating 6-0, 6-0 loss to Swiatek in the Wimbledon final, she beat Swiatek to reach the US Open final. She might have the best backhand in the sport, and her mental resolve is unquestionable at this point. She has never advanced past the fourth round in Melbourne, but there's no gap in her game to suggest she can't.
Mirra Andreeva
DraftKings odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Coco Gauff (quarterfinals)
Andreeva, 18, has looked like a future Slam champion since her first professional tournament, and it didn't seem like we would be waiting too much longer on that when she won back-to-back 1000-level events (Dubai and Indian Wells) early in 2025. But a downturn in form and nagging injuries led to her losing six of her last 10 matches of the year. She has started 2026 well, reaching the final in Adelaide, and we know what she's capable of when fully dialed in.
Jessica Pegula
DraftKings odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Madison Keys (fourth round)
An all-time grinder, Pegula has been all-or-nothing in Slams of late: Over the past two years, she has been upset before the fourth round four times but has reached two semifinals and one final. She has beaten Sabalenka and Gauff in recent months, and she's 3-0 all time against Anisimova (the highest seed in her quarter), but is this an "all" Slam or a "nothing" for the 31-year-old?
Jasmine Paolini
DraftKings odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
After reaching two Slam finals in 2024, the 30-year-old Paolini staved off flash-in-the-pan-itis with a career-high 46 tour wins in 2025, and she remains seventh in the world despite having reached zero Slam quarterfinals last year. Her form isn't great, though: She has lost five straight matches (and 10 straight sets) against top-10 opponents and seven of her past 13 matches overall.
Taylor Fritz
DraftKings odds: +6000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round)
Few players have learned to grind out results and shore up weaknesses more than Fritz. But he has lost three of his first four matches in 2026 -- and nine of 14 since reaching the Tokyo finals in September -- and he recently revealed that he's struggling to overcome nagging knee issues. If he can fight through that and establish a solid level of play, his draw could be conducive to a quarterfinal run at worst, but that's quite the "if" at the moment.
Alex De Minaur
DraftKings odds: +6500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Alexander Bublik (fourth round)
He doesn't have the commanding size that so many top ATP players boast at the moment, but the 6-foot speedster has maximized his game and again reached a career-high sixth in the world. (He's just 25 points outside of the top five.) The 26-year-old Aussie has reached the quarterfinals of five of his past seven Slams -- including his home Slam in 2025 -- and he could make that six of eight in the coming days. But his 0-18 record against Alcaraz and Sinner certainly places a ceiling on his potential.
Others: Marta Kostyuk (+3500), Belinda Bencic (+4000), Clara Tauson (+4000), Barbora Krejcikova (+5000), Liudmila Samsonova (+5000), Leylah Fernandez (+6000), Felix Auger Aliassime (+8000), Emma Raducanu (+8000), Alexander Bublik (+10000)
2026's young breakthrough candidates
Victoria Mboko
DraftKings odds: +3500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)
After a long run of domination at the ITF level -- where she won five tournaments in the first three months of 2025 -- Mboko made the full-time jump to the WTA last year and immediately thrived, winning matches at the French Open and Wimbledon and then surging to a 1000-level title with wins over Gauff, Rybakina and Osaka in Montreal. Injury and sudden expectations slowed her down for a bit, but the powerful 19-year-old finished 2025 with a title in Hong Kong in October, and she has already reached a final in 2026 (Adelaide). We could see the first Mboko-Sabalenka matchup in the fourth round, and wow, would that feature some serious power hitting.
Learner Tien
DraftKings odds: +15000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime (third round)
It's fitting that Tien landed in a quarter with Zverev and Medvedev, as early-2025 upsets of both of those players teed up his charge into the top 30. He's a big-game player -- 4-3 against top-10 opponents over the past year -- and he might be the most likely young player to make a charge on the men's side with Joao Fonseca battling back issues.
Others: Joao Fonseca (+10000), Linda Noskova (+10000), Iva Jovic (+15000), Tereza Valentova (+15000)
