The Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers kick off wild-card weekend Saturday afternoon, with the road team entering as heavy favorites. But who has the betting edge?
Matt Bowen breaks down both sides, discussing scheme and personnel to identify his best bets for the game (a Week 13 Rams-Panthers head-to-head tape helped find some answers), and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their favorite bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get it on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Rams have the ball
Bowen: Let's focus on a Rams run game that uses pre-snap movement to gain numbers and blocking angles. In the Week 13 head-to-head matchup versus Carolina, running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 158 yards rushing. I expect Rams coach Sean McVay to use his rushing attack again as a foundational piece versus a Panthers defense that allowed 122.3 rushing yards per game this season (20th in the NFL).
Edge: Rams
Best bet: Kyren Williams OVER 64.5 yards rushing (-113). Williams has topped the 70-yard rushing mark in eight of his last 10 games, including the 72 yards he posted in the regular-season matchup versus Carolina. He'll see steady volume, especially on downhill schemes, this Saturday.
When the Panthers have the ball
Bowen: In that Week 13 game, Carolina ran the ball 40 times. That's a big number. But even with the reduced throwing volume for quarterback Bryce Young (20 attempts), he hit some shot plays in short-yardage situations, where you can prep for man coverage tendencies in this league. I do believe Young and this Panthers offense will have to create some explosive plays in this one to upset the Rams.
Edge: Rams
Best bet: Jalen Coker longest reception 20+ yards (+122). Coker has at least one reception of 20 or more yards in four of his last six games, which includes the 33-yard touchdown grab against the Rams in the regular season. Look for the Panthers to isolate the Coker as the backside X receiver to find the vertical matchup.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Total points OVER 45.5 (-112)
Maldonado: The Rams have the league's top offense and can clear 30 points on their own if forced to stay aggressive. The Panthers don't need sustained drives, only early efficiency on leverage downs. If Carolina scores first or trades early scores, Matthew Stafford stays in attack mode, pace remains elevated and this never settles into a clock-draining script.
Chuba Hubbard OVER 24.5 rushing yards (-112)
Loza: Given the strength of the Rams' pass rush and Bryce Young's success against pressure (57.4%), Carolina's best offensive hope figures to come via the ground. In fact, the Panthers posted 164 total rushing yards when they defeated Los Angeles 31-28 during the regular season.
While Rico Dowdle has held the advantage in carries since Hubbard returned from injury, Hubbard has still been (frustratingly) involved, averaging 7.3 carries from Weeks 7-18. He also managed a season-high 83 rushing yards (with his longest run totaling just 10 yards) when he faced the Rams back in Week 13. Additionally, Hubbard has posted at least 25 rushing yards in five of his last 11 outings. With Los Angeles allowing 4.2 yards per carry to opposing RBs and the Panthers playing keep-away, Hubbard should clear the above line.
Blake Corum OVER 42.5 rushing yards (-112)
Solak: If I expect a big Rams win, I expect plenty of handoffs -- and the Rams were ripping it on the ground in the first matchup against Carolina. The Panthers defense structurally encourages handoffs over dropbacks, and on those long, sustained drives, Corum gets more action in relief of Williams. He got to 81 yards on just seven carries in the first game, and I'll be taking his alts again in the second contest.
Tommy Tremble OVER 18.5 receiving yards (-107)
Moody: The spread suggests the Panthers will be trailing in this game, which bodes well for Tremble. With Ja'Tavion Sanders on injured reserve, Tremble should see significant snaps. He has gone over this line in three of four games without Sanders this season, averaging 4.5 targets and 31.5 receiving yards per game in those contests.
Derrick Brown UNDER 0.25 sacks (-282)
Walder: Rams G Kevin Dotson will miss this game, which is perhaps part of the reason that my model disagrees with the market here. But I'm still willing to fade Brown, who had 5.0 sacks on the season but just a 6.6% pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle this year, a little below average at the position. But most important of all, the spread! The Rams are 10.5-point favorites, which means that Matthew Stafford ought to be forced into very few desperate passing situations.
Plus, considering the Rams had a 68% success on designed runs (second-best among all teams all games all season!) when they last played the Panthers, I expect a run-heavy game plan for Los Angeles, limiting sack opportunities against them. My model makes the price -487, though it's unaware of Dotson's status.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Kyren Williams ($14,100). Stafford is the obvious (and probably correct) play here, but Williams should post solid numbers against a Panthers run defense that gave up the eighth-most rushing yards to the position over the regular season. Corum will steal carries, but Williams remains the Rams' RB1, averaging 78 rushing yards per game since L.A.'s Week 8 bye.
Also in my lineup: Davante Adams ($9,800). The Rams' touchdown (8) and end zone target (14) leader before injuring his hamstring in Week 15, Adams figures to feast in his return.
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Matthew Stafford ($16,200). Stafford is the direct source of almost all touchdown equity. Carolina limits play action but bleeds yards on traditional dropbacks, setting up efficient volume. His ceiling outpaces every skill player.
Also in my lineup: Puka Nacua ($12,800). Nacua has volume stability winning against disguised coverage and thrives on rhythm throws. Whether the Rams are pushing tempo early or protecting a lead late, his role stays intact.
Solak's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Davante Adams ($14,700). Adams' return to the starting lineup means his return to touchdown-vulturing ways. In a high-scoring contest, Adams has the best shot of any offensive skill position player to accumulate multiple touchdowns. Pairing him with Stafford and forgoing Nacua entirely is a bold, but viable way to get unique in the field.
Also in my lineup: Blake Corum ($5,400). In that I like Corum for my bet in this game, I certainly like him as a flex option for showdown as well. Corum and Williams can both be productive if the Rams end up protecting a big lead in the second half or if they split scores in what should be a high-scoring affair. I'll be playing the two together in lineups, but Corum is easier to fit at the reduced price tag.
Walder's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Blake Corum ($8,100). The last time these two teams played each other, the Rams recorded a 68% success rate on designed runs -- the best of their season and the second-best among all games this year. Incredibly, the Rams lost that game because of turnovers, but that only furthers my belief that they'll run the ball plenty on Saturday, both because they had so much success last time and because they'll want to limit turnover variance against a heavy underdog. Either Kyren Williams or Corum could work here, but I'd rather go Corum and use the savings the spend elsewhere.
Also in my lineup: Bryce Young ($9,000). This is a ploy for garbage time. I expect the Rams to get out to a big lead and Young to have some must-pass drives where he racks up yardage and, ideally, touchdown passes with the game already likely out of reach.
