Illinois State came within 37 seconds of a national title in 2014 but couldn't keep North Dakota State out of the end zone. After getting thumped by NDSU in the 2021 title game, Montana State returned last season and tried everything it could to erase an early deficit against the mighty Bison. The Bobcats came up three points short.
Both ISU's and MSU's ambitions have been held back by the Goliath of FCS, but thanks to an all-timer of an upset, one will win the 2025 national title. Brock Spack's ISU Redbirds knocked out a particularly strong NDSU squad in the round of 16, erasing a late 14-point deficit and nailing a well-timed 2-point conversion. And with the bracket busted, the Redbirds kept rolling: They pulled off two more road upsets -- they're the first team to win four road games in a single playoff run -- and rode a rapidly improving defense to a spot in their first title game since the 2014 heartbreaker.
Montana State, meanwhile, is in its third title game in five seasons. With a mix of new blood and stalwarts from last year's oh-so-close squad, the Bobcats have won 13 straight, and they outclassed rival Montana in the semifinals. They've waited more than 40 years for a follow-up to their 1984 national title, and they came achingly close to the mountaintop last season. Now all they have to do is beat a team of destiny.
On Monday night in Nashville (7:30 ET, ESPN), two teams yearning to take advantage of the best title chance they might ever have will square off. Here's everything you need to know about a fascinating FCS finale.
How they got here
No. 2 Montana State Bobcats
Record: 13-2
SP+ rankings: third overall, fourth on offense, ninth on defense
First-team all-conference selections: RG Titan Fleischmann (6-foot-4, 300 pounds, Jr.), NT Paul Brott (6-3, 300, Sr.), edge Kenneth Eiden IV (6-1, 250, Sr.), SS Caden Dowler (6-0, 205, Sr., Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year)
Key regular-season results: lost to No. 2 South Dakota State 30-24, def. No. 10 Northern Arizona 34-10, def. No. 9 UC Davis 38-17, def. No. 2 Montana 31-28
Playoff run: def. Yale 21-13, def. No. 7 Stephen F. Austin 44-28, def. No. 3 Montana 48-23
Including a Week 1 blasting by Oregon, Montana State averaged a pretty mortal 23.8 points over the first four games of the season. As always, the run game was strong from the start -- the Bobcats have gained at least 189 yards on the ground against every FCS opponent and have topped 225 yards 10 times -- but new quarterback Justin Lamson, a Stanford transfer, averaged just 4.3 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) against Oregon and South Dakota State, and he had only three touchdown passes in the first four games.
Over his past 11 games, however, Lamson has thrown for 2,157 yards (13.4 per completion) with a 21-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Complement a dynamite run game with an error-free and occasionally explosive passing game, and you're going to be awfully hard to stop. MSU has averaged 43.3 points per game in these 11 contests and has allowed just 13.9 per game in its past 13. The Bobcats found fifth gear, and they've stayed there, really having to sweat against only Montana in the regular-season finale and Yale in their first playoff game.
Record: 12-4
SP+ rankings: 10th overall, 11th on offense, 28th on defense
First-team all-conference selections: WR Daniel Sobkowicz (6-3, 205, Sr.), LT Jake Pope (6-7, 300, Sr.), LB Tye Niekamp (6-3, 240, Jr., Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year), CB Shadwel Nkuba II (6-1, 190, Sr.)
Key regular-season results: lost to No. 1 North Dakota State 33-16, lost to No. 25 Youngstown State 40-35, def. No. 21 South Dakota 21-13, def. No. 15 South Dakota State 35-21, lost to No. 24 Southern Illinois 37-7
Playoff run: def. No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana 21-3, def. No. 1 North Dakota State 29-28, def. No. 8 UC Davis 42-31, def. No. 12 Villanova 30-14
Brock Spack has brought incredible reliability to ISU; in 17 seasons in Normal, his Redbirds have won at least six games 14 times and at least 10 five times. ISU had won three FCS playoff games in its history before he arrived in 2009 -- and has won 12 since. But that 2014 title game run was starting to seem pretty far in the rearview mirror. The Redbirds hadn't made it past the quarterfinals since then, and they had reached the playoffs only once in the 2020s.
Illinois State won four in a row late in the regular season to all but clinch a playoff spot, and the offense provided plenty of sterling moments. But even with star linebacker Tye Niekamp, the defense didn't really look the part, and a humbling 37-7 loss to Southern Illinois in the regular-season finale gave no indication of what was to come. The Redbirds were only 21st in SP+ heading into the playoffs, and they've been projected underdogs in every game they've played.
They've redefined "peaking late," however. They've overachieved against SP+ projections by 7.2 points per game on offense and by 14.1 on defense, and after four immaculate road wins, here they are.
Can ISU keep the magic formula going?
Based on pregame SP+ projections, ISU had a 0.3% chance of winning its four playoff games -- and that doesn't even begin to crack the degree of difficulty involved in beating North Dakota State while throwing five interceptions. But just about everyone in the Redbirds' lineup has come through when required. Quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse indeed threw five picks in Fargo, but he also has thrown eight touchdown passes in the past three games. Seven of those went to Daniel Sobkowicz, who has 29 catches for 403 yards in four playoff games, scored twice against NDSU and went for 150 yards against UC Davis. (Sobkowicz also threw a TD pass to Rittenhouse against Southeastern Louisiana.) Lead back Victor Dawson, meanwhile, has 517 rushing yards (5.3 per carry) in the playoffs after producing 734 (4.8) in 12 regular-season games.
The defense ranked 56th in SP+ when the playoffs began but has transformed into something pretty remarkable. Southeastern Louisiana averaged 33.3 points per game in the regular season but finished with more interceptions thrown (four) than points scored against the Redbirds. NDSU gained 78 yards on its first snap, a long catch-and-run from Bryce Lance, but gained just 101 additional yards. UC Davis, with one of the best offenses in the country, scored 10 points in the first four minutes and 14 in the final three, but scored just once in seven drives in between as ISU was seizing control with a 35-7 run. Villanova turned three early trips into ISU territory into just six points and trailed by 24 when it finally got moving again late.
Niekamp has been as reliable as ever in the playoffs, but so many others have contributed when needed, from tackles Garret Steffen and Jake Anderson (6.5 TFLs and five sacks) to corners Shadwel Nkuba II and Cam Wilson (one INT, seven breakups, a TFL, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery) to safety CJ Richard Jr. (two picks, a breakup and a fumble recovery). This has been a 2007 or 2011 New York Giants type of run, with an occasionally error-prone QB coming up big in critical moments and an increasingly confident and disruptive defense taking over for growing swaths of time.
If you can hold NDSU to less than 200 yards, you can do it to pretty much anyone, but obviously it will be an enormous challenge pinning down a Montana State offense that has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its past 13 games. One wouldn't figure the odds of success here are high, but if there's one thing we've learned, it's that the Redbirds don't care much about the odds.
So MSU will close the deal this time ... right?
Last year's title game loss felt like such a missed opportunity for Montana State. NDSU hadn't been at its absolute best in 2024, and Brent Vigen's Bobcats had an unbeaten and particularly brilliant squad led by All-Americans (and soon-to-be departees) such as quarterback Tommy Mellott -- the Walter Payton Award winner and a sixth-round NFL draft pick -- plus fullback/tight end Rohan Jones, offensive linemen Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore, and defensive end Brody Grebe. They were going to get hit by attrition, and NDSU really wasn't. It was time for them to break through, but a poor start in the title game prevented it.
Even if the losses were to Oregon and South Dakota State, an 0-2 start in 2025, combined with NDSU's immediate brilliance, reinforced the idea that MSU's time had passed. But you never know what will happen if you just keep trying to improve. Justin Lamson found his rhythm after the slow start, and when it was time for the Bobcats to shift into a new gear, they did so.
Going back to the end of the regular season, they have played five straight games against playoff teams -- including four against quarterfinalists and top-eight seeds (Montana twice, Stephen F. Austin and UC Davis) -- and have won those five games by an average of two touchdowns. Lamson has completed 72% of his passes and thrown for 886 yards, with 334 non-sack rushing yards plus 12 combined TDs, in these five games, and running backs Adam Jones (the dual threat) and Julius Davis (the workhorse) have combined for 856 rushing yards, 120 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Slot receiver Taco Dowler hasn't always had much to do, but he caught a game-turning 87-yard touchdown pass in the semifinals, and wideouts Dane Steel and Chris Long have come through as well.
Against a strong group of offenses in this five-game run -- among others, Montana is second in offensive SP+, and UC Davis is eighth -- MSU's defense has allowed 21.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play (not dominant, but well below these opponents' season averages) and has pounced beautifully on mistakes: The Bobcats have made 18 sacks and forced 11 turnovers, scoring on three of them. Safety Caden Dowler reeled in pick-sixes in each of the last two regular-season games, and linebacker Bryce Grebe's 40-yard pick-six finished off the semifinal blowout.
Caden Dowler might be the biggest story of the game: He's the best safety in FCS -- and maybe the best player on either of these rosters -- and he has made 6 picks with 4 breakups, 6.5 TFLs and 2 forced fumbles this season. But he left the semifinal win with an injured arm, and although Vigen expressed optimism about his availability, it's a race against time, and he might not be 100 percent even if he plays.
Projecting the title game
DraftKings projection: Montana State 33.5, Illinois State 23.0 (MSU -10.5, over/under 56.5 points)
SP+ projection: Montana State 33.2, Illinois State 24.8
Per SP+, Montana State has about a 70% chance of winning this one, which means we can almost think of this as having three equally likely outcomes: a tight ISU win, a reasonably tight MSU win and a comfortable MSU win. If ISU can control the ball with Dawson, and if Rittenhouse avoids picks, the Redbirds could score enough to give themselves a chance. But the Redbirds' margin for error isn't great, as they'll also have to continue overachieving drastically on defense against a peaking MSU attack.
It's hard to bet against Spack's Redbirds considering the odds they've defied just to get to this point. But it's also pretty easy to see this as Montana State's moment. The Bobcats just keep inching closer and closer, and thanks to ISU, the typical final boss isn't waiting in the final. If you squint just right, both of these teams have a "team of destiny" vibe. Only one will lift the trophy, however.
