Projecting the 2026 NFL draft order: Will the Raiders clinch the No. 1 pick?

There is one week left in the 2025 NFL regular season, which means the top part of the 2026 draft order is basically set. The Las Vegas Raiders are heavy favorites to have the No. 1 pick in April. And when the regular season ends Sunday night, we will know the slots for the top 18 picks for sure. Using ESPN's Football Power Index, we can project the entire order for all 32 selections a little early.

Each week during the season, ESPN's FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations.

Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 18.

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1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)

Average draft position: 1.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 89.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%

To clinch the No. 1 pick in Week 18, the Raiders need:

• Loss OR

• Giants win OR

• Three losses from among the Falcons, Bears, Browns and Seahawks

2. New York Jets (3-13)

Average draft position: 2.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 91.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%

3. New York Giants (3-13)

Average draft position: 3.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%

To clinch the No. 1 pick in Week 18, the Giants need:

• Loss AND Raiders win AND one win and one tie from among the Falcons, Bears, Browns or Seahawks

4. Tennessee Titans (3-13)

Average draft position: 4.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%

5. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)

Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 80.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%

6. Cleveland Browns (4-12)

Average draft position: 5.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 58.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%

7. Washington Commanders (4-12)

Average draft position: 6.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 26.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%

8. New Orleans Saints (6-10)

Average draft position: 8.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.7%

9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)

Average draft position: 9.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 71.1%

10. Miami Dolphins (7-9)

Average draft position: 10.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 75.6%

11. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)

Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.7%

12. Los Angeles Rams (via 7-9 ATL)

Average draft position: 11.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.9%

13. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)

Average draft position: 14.4

14. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

Average draft position: 15.4

15. Detroit Lions (8-8)

Average draft position: 15.5

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Average draft position: 16.0

17. New York Jets (via 8-8 IND)

Average draft position: 16.7

18. Carolina Panthers (8-8)

Average draft position: 19.5

19. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

Average draft position: 19.9

20. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

Average draft position: 20.0

21. Chicago Bears (11-5)

Average draft position: 23.6

22. Dallas Cowboys (via 9-6-1 GB)

Average draft position: 24.1

23. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)

Average draft position: 24.4

24. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Average draft position: 25.2

25. Houston Texans (11-5)

Average draft position: 25.3

26. Buffalo Bills (11-5)