After the Baltimore Ravens lost to the New England Patriots in Week 16, their hopes of winning the AFC North almost completely evaporated. To have any chance, they would need to beat the playoff-bound Green Bay Packers on the road and have the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the hapless Cleveland Browns in Week 17.
As fate would have it, both of those results came to fruition, as the Ravens and Browns overcame underdog status to win their games and set up a winner-take-all showdown for the AFC North between Baltimore and Pittsburgh in Week 18. At DraftKings, the Ravens opened as 3-point road favorites against the Steelers.
Going into Week 17, Pittsburgh held commanding -1400 odds to win the division compared to +800 for the Ravens. DraftKings reports that in the last week, 87% of handle came in on the Ravens for the AFC North, while BetMGM said that it received 83% of money backing Baltimore in the same time period, though the Ravens are still its smallest liability for the division overall.
It's been quite the odyssey for the Ravens to get to this point. After entering the season as the odds-on favorites, they briefly relinquished favorite status to Pittsburgh ahead of Week 7, before returning to the top of the odds board for several weeks. Then, the Steelers' head-to-head win over Baltimore in Week 14 propelled them ahead until their loss to Cleveland.
With the division on the line, the Ravens opened at -170 on the moneyline. Despite some injury concerns surrounding Lamar Jackson, bookmakers are comfortable keeping Baltimore as a field-goal favorite.
"We don't feel there is much difference between [backup QB Tyler] Huntley and this version of Jackson, what appears to be an injured version of Jackson," John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. "The Ravens offense looked as good as ever on Saturday, Huntley knows the offense well and Lamar hasn't been right all season. Don't see it making much of a difference."
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, sees a bit more contrast between Jackson and Huntley, saying that he anticipates the game moving closer to a pick 'em should the former be ruled out.
Ravens-Steelers won't be the only game contested for a division title next week.
Entering Week 11, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were -1200 to win the NFC South, while the Carolina Panthers were +1200 -- in Week 18, the two teams will face off for the division. The Bucs opened as 3.5-point home favorites for the showdown with the Panthers, according to DraftKings odds.
The matchup is the culmination of opposing trends for the division rivals. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in eight consecutive games, the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL and the longest in franchise history, per ESPN Research. Meanwhile, Carolina has come all the way back from a long of +2500 to win the NFC South in Week 5.
In another close division race, if the San Francisco 49ers defeat the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football, they will face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18 for the NFC West title and the conference's No. 1 seed.
NFL Odds & Ends
Despite lackluster matchups not shown on traditional TV outlets, the NFL topped the NBA on Christmas Day in terms of betting interest. At Caesars Sportsbook, the showcase NBA matchups only attracted close to half the amount of money that was bet on the least-bet NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders. "The NFL is still the king at the end of the day, as the three low-stakes NFL games easily surpassed the handle of all of the NBA games," Feazel said.
Derrick Henry was DraftKings' most-bet player to score 2+ touchdowns during Saturday's two-game slate ... he scored four in the Ravens' huge win over the Packers.
Cincinnati Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase stated his goal openly heading into Week 17. "I think the biggest thing on the list is to score another touchdown ... I think I've been overdue since Week 7," Chase told reporters last week. Bettors at DraftKings, who were listening, were rewarded. More money was bet on Chase to score a touchdown on Sunday than on any other player at DraftKings. He caught two touchdowns in the Bengals' 37-14 rout of the Arizona Cardinals.
With their thrilling win over the Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) have now won six straight games outright as an underdog including the playoffs, tied for the longest such streak since 2010, according to ESPN Research.
Season-win totals on the line in Week 18
[Totals based on BetMGM openers]
Cowboys (7-8-1) 7.5 at New York Giants
Packers (9-6-1) 9.5 at Minnesota Vikings
Vikings (8-8) 8.5 vs. Packers
New Orleans Saints (6-10) 6.5 at Atlanta Falcons
Bills (11-5) 11.5 vs. New York Jets
College football odds and ends
Favorites in 14-13 against the spread in bowl games (including the four first-round playoff games). Seventeen of the 27 games have gone under the total by an average of 3.4 points per game.
New Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham is 141-118-4 (.544) against the spread as a head coach in his FBS career. That ranks ninth among coaches with a minimum of 200 games since 2000.
Best coaches' winning percentage against the spread (Since 2000; minimum 200 games)
Urban Meyer: .578
Nick Saban: .568
Bronco Mendenhall: .560
Paul Johnson: .557
Bill Snyder: .556
Kirk Ferentz: .555
Ken Niumatalolo: .545
Bob Stoops: .545
Kyle Whittingham: .544
