The luck pendulum swings back in favor of the Chiefs, but away from the spread

After going 11-0 in one-score games during the 2024 season, the luck pendulum had completely swung back on the Kansas City Chiefs, who entered Sunday 0-5 in one-score games for 2025. But sportsbooks never lost faith in Kansas City and on Sunday, the Chiefs finally reversed the narrative, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 23-20.

Despite a 5-5 record, KC entered Sunday's action against the 8-2 Colts as 4.5-point favorites and were -190 to make the playoffs, even while statistically being on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, per ESPN BET odds. Bookmakers understand the potential of the team as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are in the fold, though, especially knowing bettors were prepared to back them.

"The Kansas City Chiefs remain highly respected in our Power Rankings, showing minimal movement week to week despite their average record," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN over email. "Bettors continue to back them heavily, as if the outcome is already decided and today's performance showed why."

Even following Week 11's action, when the Chiefs fell to the Denver Broncos, Kansas City was Caesars' second-most backed team by handle and was still considered one of BetMGM's largest Super Bowl liabilities, demonstrating bettors' faith in the team and sportsbook's rightful hesitancy to lengthen their odds too much.

While the Chiefs were finally able to buck the one-score loss trend, they still didn't cover the favorite spread, dropping their ATS record to 5-6. Kansas City is 1-6 ATS versus teams with winning records, per ESPN Research.

Parlays strong in early slate

During the early Sunday slate, all seven favorites won their games straight up, but only covered the spread in two of the contests. That would prove to be a blessing and curse for the sportsbooks.

"The early morning slate wasn't ideal for the book, as all favorites cashed on the moneyline," said Feazel. "When that happens, parlay handle becomes a factor as many bettors love stacking heavy favorites into one ticket, and this Sunday those parlays paid off."

That said, the books were able to make some money back on underdogs covering the spreads. BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said that bettors were "not afraid of big favorites," specifically, the New England Patriots (-7.5) and Detroit Lions (-14), who squeaked out close wins against the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants, respectively. The Baltimore Ravens (-14.5) and Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) were also well supported at Caesars and DraftKings.

All three double-digit favorites failed to cover the spread on Sunday.

Odds & Ends