Survivor pool strategy: Ravens, Seahawks among top options in Week 12

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you've made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.

Last week, fewer than 6% of entrants were knocked out, the lowest rate in any week all season. For the season, only nine underdogs of at least six points have won outright, tied for the fewest through Week 11 in the Super Bowl era.

Still, only 3.4% of entrants from Week 1 remain. With only seven weeks left, planning ahead is vital in Eliminator Challenge. Many of the top choices this week will also be appealing down the road, and you don't want to box yourself out.

The Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks project as the heavy chalk, and it's hard to make a case against either one as they face two of the worst teams in the NFL. They are the two biggest favorites in every model.

There are several other strong choices if you want to avoid ownership. Five teams have their easiest remaining game this week, including the top four recommended teams. However, I recommend taking the higher win equity with either the Ravens or Seahawks.

Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

1. Baltimore Ravens (vs. New York Jets)

The Ravens are the biggest favorites this week according to both ESPN Analytics and the betting market. It's their easiest game the rest of the season. There is value in saving them, as they will be one of the five biggest favorites in three of the next four weeks. However, the Ravens are 47-0 all-time as double-digit favorites in the regular season, and it's hard to envision a bottom-feeder Jets squad pulling off the upset. Just make sure that you have a team you like for next week, as the Ravens project as big favorites next week at home against the Bengals.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 81%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 85%

• ESPN BET line: Ravens -13.5 (-1400 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 27% selected

2. Seattle Seahawks (at Tennessee Titans)

The Seahawks have a very similar case to the Ravens, as they face the worst team in the NFL as heavy favorites. The Titans have played slightly better since firing Brian Callahan, but their only win remains a miracle comeback against the Cardinals. The Seahawks are 5-0 against teams with losing records this season, winning by 17.6 points per game. They have three more usable games remaining after this one, but none as easy as this.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 76%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 85%

• ESPN BET line: -13.5 (-1400 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 30% selected

3. Detroit Lions (vs. New York Giants)

The Lions have won 13 straight games after a loss, covering the spread in all of them. The Lions also have some future value, but this will be their easiest game. However, the Giants actually grade out as the 15th-best team according to ESPN Analytics, so they have more quality than their 2-9 record would indicate. Detroit should win this game, but it's slightly riskier than the first two choices.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 70%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 73%

• ESPN BET line: -10 (-650 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected

4. Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

The Vikings rating continues to fall due to their quarterback struggles. J.J. McCarthy would rank last in the NFL in Total QBR if he qualified, and he's coming off two terrible games at home. The Packers offense snapped out of a slump last week, posting their second-best EPA per play of the season. And like most of the teams above them on this list, it's their easiest remaining game of the season.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 71%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 77%

• ESPN BET line: Packers -6.5 (-300 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected

5. New England Patriots (at Cincinnati Bengals)

The Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL by virtually every metric, and the offense had its worst game in two months last week in Pittsburgh. Add Ja'Marr Chase's suspension, and the Bengals are a great team to fade against a streaking Patriots team. New England has several more usable weeks this season, including at least two more games with higher win probability, which helps drop them down the list.

• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 59%

• Mike Clay chance to win: 75%

• ESPN BET line: Patriots -8 (-450 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 3% selected

6. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Carolina Panthers)