Heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall will finally make his anticipated return to the Octagon against former interim champion Ciryl Gane this Saturday in Abu Dhabi (2 p.m. ET on ESPN PPV, prelims at 10 a.m.). In just eight UFC fights, Aspinall has distinguished himself among heavyweights for his quick work. He owns the UFC record for shortest average fight time at 2 minutes, 2 seconds. He has also won every one of his professional MMA fights by stoppage. He is taking on the fourth-most accurate heavyweight in UFC history in Gane (61.3% significant strike accuracy), who is on a two-win streak.
A new champion is guaranteed to be crowned in the co-main event between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern for the vacant strawweight championship. Jandiroba, ESPN's No. 2-ranked strawweight, enters the weekend on the longest winning streak in the division at 5. No. 6-ranked Dern is hoping for a repeat of UFC 256 five years ago, when she defeated Jandiroba by unanimous decision.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their UFC title fight predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on both fight cards.
Heavyweight title fight
I think this fight will look a lot like Gane's loss to Jon Jones in 2023, to be honest. It just probably won't end as quickly as that submission two minutes into the first round. The fight will last as long as it takes Aspinall to get Gane down. Gane has power, and I'm not saying he doesn't have a chance. You always have a chance with that kind of power. But he doesn't really one-hit-quit people early on in fights. Tom is patient and he'll find his opening. -- Anthony Smith
I think it will be relatively close for the first two rounds, with a lot of reading and setting traps between them. But then Tom's speed will start to assert itself as the fight progresses, and that first step of penetration with his right hand will be hard for Ciryl to stop consistently. That right hand will be the punch that ultimately puts Gane down. -- Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of Oct. 23. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Aspinall to win inside the distance (-800). Aspinall will finally enter the cage for the first time this year after waiting out for a match with Jon Jones that never came to fruition. He takes on kickboxer and multi-time title contender Gane, who is probably the more technical striker, but Aspinall can end a fight with a single punch at any moment. The biggest discrepancy between the two headliners lies in the ground game. Aspinall the wrestler will be light years ahead of Gane in every aspect when the fight hits the ground. Look for Aspinall to use his striking before bullrushing his way into a takedown, but if a takedown happens the end for Gane will be near.
Strawweight title fight
Jandiroba is a grappler at heart, but Dern is just a better one. Mackenzie is better at the main way Jandiroba wins fights. It's not that Jandiroba can't strike, but that's not how she's typically getting her wins. Dern can handle anything Jandiroba does on the ground and she's far more powerful on the feet. -- Anthony Smith
Dern will get outwrestled by Jandiroba for the first two rounds, but Jandiroba will tire herself out in that process. Dern's pressure, determination and competitiveness will see her win the last three rounds and walk out with the belt, 48-47. -- Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Parker: Jandiroba to win (+135). Jandiroba and Dern will compete in the co-main event to crown the new queen of the strawweight division. Both women are world-class on the ground, and on the feet it's also a pretty even fight. The difference here is that Dern tends to throw a little too wild on the feet, leaving her open to counterstrikes. Between the two, Jandiroba has been more impressive with better competition in her last few fights and at underdog odds, take Jandiroba to get the upset.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the fight card
Lightweight: Ludovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki
Klein to win (-150). In what should be a fun battle, Klein is currently the favorite, and I like him to get the win here. On the feet, Klein is the better and more precise striker. He pumps out a ton of volume and tends to keep himself out of trouble, which will come in handy against Rebecki, who only throws single strikes but with tremendous power. Even though Rebecki is the better wrestler, Klein has tremendous takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage.
Featherweight: Jose Miguel Delgado vs Nathaniel Wood
Delgado to win (-150). As good as Wood has been to get to 9-3 in the UFC, it's hard to ignore how impressive his opponent has been since he earned a UFC contract with a second-round knockout win on "Dana White's Contender Series" last August. He needed just under three minutes of fight time to knockout his first UFC opponent, Connor Matthews, in February, then followed that up with a knee to Hyder Amil's face for the knockout 26 seconds into the fight at UFC 317 in June. he has gone on the KO both of his first two UFC opponents in the first round. Both Wood and Delgado are extremely durable, but Delgado's speed and unpredictable striking combinations might be a bit too much for Wood. Look for Delgado to push forward and get off to a quick start, not allowing Wood to dictate the pace. Wood is an extremely tough out for anyone in the division, but Delgado has the skillset to defeat the crafty veteran.
