Sunday's slate of Week 4 games concludes with the Green Bay Packers heading to Arlington, Texas, to take on the Dallas Cowboys.
Micah Parsons will be going against his former team one month to the day after the shocking trade that sent him to Green Bay. One ex-teammate he won't be facing is CeeDee Lamb, who could miss three to four weeks with a left high ankle sprain suffered in last week's loss to the Chicago Bears.
The defeat dropped the Cowboys to 1-2 and their odds of making the playoffs grew to +450. The Packers, meanwhile, even after a shocking loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, are the favorite to win the NFC North at -115 and the third choice to win the Super Bowl (+600).
Green Bay is favored by 6.5 points over the Cowboys and the over/under is 46.5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Pamela Maldonado: The matchup tilts in their favor everywhere. Green Bay has led for more than 70% of its snaps this season and still hasn't allowed a first-half touchdown. Their defense is third in points per drive and first in yards per play allowed, while Dallas is near the bottom in both. The Cowboys are missing two starting linemen, and even with his top target CeeDee Lamb (out), Dak Prescott is averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt. That's a tough setup against a top-five pass rush and a secondary giving up just 4.3 yards per attempt.
I'm not worried about the Browns loss because that was all about pressure, and Dallas can't replicate it. Green Bay should dictate the script, force turnovers and finish drives against a defense allowing more than 30 points per game. If the Packers play to expectation, this feels like a game they win by two scores.
Notable player props, bets
Jordan Love 2 passing TDs + Matthew Golden Over 41.5 yards (+180)
Maldonado: This is the kind of plus-money ticket I feel good about, rooted in how this matchup should play out. If Love throws two touchdowns, which feels likely against a Dallas defense that is giving up 14.4 yards per attempt and a perfect passer rating without pressure, then Green Bay is probably in full control. And if that happens, Golden is probably part of it. His usage spiked last week, and this is the defense to take advantage of.
Nobody's been worse defending the deep ball: 11 completions on 15 attempts of 20-plus yards and five touchdowns allowed. Golden is a vertical threat, and one shot could clear the number. Both props tell the same story: Packers attack vertically, Love cashes in and Golden gets loose. If that's how this game unfolds, +180 has a real shot to hit.
Jordan Love Over 6.5 rushing yards (-105)
Liz Loza: After being upset by Cleveland, Love is certainly motivated to "get right" in prime time. The Cowboys' defense figures to make that goal all the more attainable. While much is being said about Green Bay's expected aerial attack, Love could find some sneaky yards on the ground.
Dallas has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (94). That number might be inflated due to Jalen Hurts' 62 rushing yards in Week 1, but it's worth noting that all three opposing QBs (Hurts, Russell Wilson and Caleb Williams) registered double-digit yardage running when facing the 'Boys. Additionally, Love has gone over the above line in each of his past two outings.
Romeo Doubs Over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)
Matt Bowen: The Dallas defense is allowing a league-worst 288 passing yards per game, plus this unit plays the most zone coverage in the league (87% of coverage snaps). Doubs was limited in Week 3 by a Cleveland defense that is one of the league's best, but he did see nine targets over his first two games. Matt LaFleur can scheme open coverage voids for Doubs on Sunday night and a boundary/middle of the field target for Love.
Jake Ferguson Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
Eric Moody: He's seen 12-plus targets and cleared this line in back-to-back games. With Lamb sidelined, Ferguson should see plenty of looks. The Packers' defense is tough, but it has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
Tucker Kraft anytime TD (+210)
Bowen: Kraft caught a touchdown in each of his first games, plus he gets a Dallas defense that will play Cover 2 in the high red zone. Throw the seam balls here to Kraft. And take the open space.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Packers are 61-42 against the spread under Matt LaFleur but only 11-16 ATS as road favorites, including a loss last week as 7.5-point favorites at Cleveland.
Packers games have gone under the total in all three weeks this season.
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five games as underdogs.
The Packers are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 as road favorites.
