Buy the dip: Thirteen fantasy hockey players primed for bounce-back seasons

Fantasy hockey is all about trends and timing, and one of the trickiest patterns to navigate is the mid-career or late-career slump. Understanding which dips are temporary versus true declines can make the difference between holding a player and cutting them too soon.

To explore this, we examined historical data going back to 2009-10 to identify players who dropped significantly in fantasy points per game (FPPG) but later returned to their career norms. The patterns reveal both cautionary tales for veterans and hope for younger players currently in a rut.

Jump to: Forwards | Defensemen

Forwards

For forwards, there have been 71 times since 2009-10 that a fantasy relevant player (career FPPG of 1.7 or better) has finished a season with an FPPG drop of at least 0.35, only to later recover to their career average in a subsequent season. That's some solid precedent to offer hope to any player currently in a dip for production.

Not surprisingly, a whopping 15 of those bounce backs occurred in the 2021-22 season -- almost as if something external forced more players to struggle during the 2021 season. The remainders are spread out across the remaining 16 seasons of data, ranging from eight bounce backs in each of 2017-18 and 2022-23, to one each in 2014-15 and 2016-17.

A new nickname option for Matt Duchene could be Capt. Yo-Yo, as he individually represents five of the 71 bounce back campaigns, with 0.35 FPPG dips only for a recovery in future seasons in: 2011-12, 2014-15, 2016-17, 2019-20 and 2022-23. Evgeni Malkin has four, but no other player is represented more than twice.

All of this is to say that the reasons for the dip and recovery are probably not the same for any of the 71 instances, even by the same player. Injury, linemates, deployments, team structure, coaching, comfort, focus, fatigue ... the list of variables and combinations of them is endless.

But that doesn't mean the data isn't useful. Perhaps first and foremost, we can take the average age of the players in the season for which they managed to bounce back. It's not good news for the veterans.

The average age in those seasons of recovery for forwards is 29 years, 68 days old. Which tells us that most of the fading stars aren't in a dip, just a decline. Examples of current ruts for older players include:

• Steven Stamkos, Nashville Predators (age 35.6, career FPPG: 2.42, last season: 1.66)

• Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins (age 39.1, career FPPG: 2.26, last season: 1.67)

• Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings (age 36.8, career FPPG: 2.10, last season: 1.74)

• Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars (age 36.2, career FPPG: 2.01, last season: 1.47)

• Claude Giroux, Ottawa Senators (age 37.7, career FPPG: 1.90, last season: 1.42)

• Taylor Hall, Carolina Hurricanes (age 33.8, career FPPG: 1.88, last season: 1.35)

• Vladimir Tarasenko, Minnesota Wild (age 33.8, career FPPG: 1.85, last season: 1.06)

• Chris Kreider, Anaheim Ducks (age 34.4, career FPPG: 1.77, last season: 1.37)

• Corey Perry, Los Angeles Kings (age 40.3, career FPPG: 1.63, last season: 0.98)

• Ondrej Palat, New Jersey Devils (age 34.5, career FPPG: 1.61, last season: 1.25)

• David Perron, Senators (age 37.3, career FPPG: 1.56, last season: 1.09)

• Jeff Skinner, San Jose Sharks (age 33.3, career FPPG: 1.55, last season: 1.06)

• James van Riemsdyk, Red Wings (age 36.4, career FPPG: 1.47, last season: 1.02)

• Gustav Nyquist, Winnipeg Jets (age 36.0, career FPPG: 1.38, last season: 0.90)

All of these players are on the wrong side of 33. Maybe some of them, especially those in new homes with new coaches, can find the ingredients for a late-career boost, but odds are most of them won't age like a fine Joe Pavelski.

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Bounce-back forwards

If we shift our focus to players closer to the average historical bounce-back age, we are more likely to actually find a success story or two.

Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks (career FPPG: 2.27, last season FPPG: 1.95): Is there another player in the league with more pressure to bounce back than Pettersson? Has there been one with more pressure to do so in the last decade? Admittedly, offseason storylines tend to dissipate in memory quickly, but the pressure cooker is turned all the way up as the Canucks supposed superstar absolutely must get his groove back.

The Canucks didn't do much to change the colleagues he will be working with, as Evander Kane is the only potential new addition to the top six. But Pettersson is the catalyst, not the coattail rider, so this is all about him. With the ceiling of a top 10 fantasy player and the floor not all that damaging to your overall roster, Pettersson can be argued as a second-round draft option to give you some superstar potential without reaching too far.

Verdict: It's worth the risk so long as he doesn't creep too far up draft lists.

Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders (career FPPG: 1.79, last season FPPG: 1.67): The Islanders tied for the fewest power-play goals in the league last season and the lack of Barzal for 52 games surely played a big part of that. In 2023-24, the Barzal managed 80 points for his first elite campaign since he was a rookie in 2017-18. He's been used to Anders Lee and Brock Nelson as his partners in crime, but with the latter now in Colorado, Barzal will have to find new chemistry.

Verdict: He hasn't been a target in drafts, with an average draft position (ADP) approaching 200 in ESPN drafts. Barzal is low risk, decent reward choice.

Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks (career FPPG: 1.79, last season FPPG: 1.65): A byproduct of the struggling team around him, Boeser's goal scoring dried up last season, dropping from 40 to 25. He'll be lined up with Pettersson, so whether Boeser can bounce back does rely somewhat on Pettersson doing the same. But with Quinn Hughes on the blue line for the power play and Boeser arguably the key shooter for the unit, he should get closer to 40 goals than 25.

Verdict: There's a good chance Boeser outperforms your investment on draft day and outstrips the lows of last season.

Zach Hyman, RW, Edmonton Oilers (career FPPG: 1.71, last season FPPG: 1.58): We didn't expect another 54 goals from Hyman last season after his output in 2023-24; But we didn't expect half that total either. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. He's still a lock for the Oilers power play, so the floor isn't all that low.

Verdict: The highs were too high to bounce back to such levels, but Hyman wouldn't be a shock in the top 50 forwards at the end of the season.

Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Florida Panthers (career FPPG: 1.64, last season FPPG: 1.59): From 42 in 2022-23, to 34 in 2023-24, to 20 last season, Verhaeghe's goal total is trending the wrong direction. Did he get unlucky? His shots on goal were basically the same in each of the past two seasons, but he dropped from 13.8% shooting to 8.3%.

Verdict: He's a better finisher than we saw last season and another campaign on the wing of Aleksander Barkov should result in a rebound back above 30 goals.

Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Boston Bruins (career FPPG: 1.64, last season FPPG: 1.10): It's becoming increasingly difficult to make the case for Arvidsson. It was easy for a few years: He scored 34 goals in only 58 games with the Nashville Predators in 2018-19, but as time ticks on, that example of his sniping potential becomes less and less relevant. The argument to be made is that there is more runway with the Bruins for him to potentially carve out a top-line or power-play role, pushing his minutes back into respectable territory.

Verdict: There were more paths to fantasy success for Arvidsson with the Oilers last season and he didn't find one of them. There's no reason to roster him out of the gate here with the Bruins.

Andrei Kuzmenko, LW, Los Angeles Kings (career FPPG: 1.48, last season FPPG: 1.16): Traded three times over the past two seasons for a total of four franchises, it's no wonder Kuzmenko has had a hard time mimicking his 39-goal debut in 2022-23 with the Canucks. He hasn't done himself any favors by starting incredibly slow both seasons and only showing signs of life post-trade.

Verdict: The Kings are the perfect home for Kuzmenko to flash his offense with whichever 200-foot center he plays with. There's also a power-play role available for him. He's worth taking a chance on.

Andrew Mangiapane, RW, Edmonton Oilers (career FPPG: 1.24, last season FPPG: 0.94): His 35-goal explosion in 2021-22 clearly came under the perfect storm, having not eclipsed 18 goals before or since, but any winger able to display a knack for finishing is worth at least a look with the Oilers.

Verdict: Mangiapane probably isn't first in line for a chance alongside Connor McDavid, but he may end up being the answer.

Defense

There are much fewer examples of players on the blue line bouncing back from a sharp decline.

Only 21 examples exist in the dataset since 2009-10 that show a drop of at least 0.35 FPPG for a fantasy-relevant defender and then a recovery to career norms. They range from when Dennis Wideman and Mark Giordano both had dips and recoveries with the Calgary Flames from 2013-14 to 2014-15, up to MacKenzie Weegar's lackluster debut with the Flames in 2022-23 only to explode for 20 goals the next season. (I promise not all 21 are with in Calgary).

Once again, however, even with a smaller sample, the average age of recovery remains under 30: 29 years, 228 days.

That means most of the players on the decline will stay that way if they are older, like:

• John Carlson, Washington Capitals (age 35.7, career FPPG: 2.22, last season: 1.90)

• Kris Letang, Penguins (age 38.4, career FPPG: 2.21, last season: 1.67)

• Erik Karlsson, Penguins (age 35.3, career FPPG: 2.14, last season: 1.71)

• Brent Burns, Colorado Avalanche (age 40.5, career FPPG: 2.08, last season: 1.27)

• Jeff Petry, Panthers (age 37.8, career FPPG: 1.72, last season: 1.28)

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Bounce-back defense

So let's stick to younger players currently in a fantasy production dip.

Adam Fox, D, New York Rangers (career FPPG: 2.21, last season FPPG: 2.07): For what it's worth, if he was anyone other than Adam Fox, last season's totals would have been considered a success. For crying out loud, Fox was still on some Norris Trophy ballots! But the bar is incredibly high here.

Verdict: The Rangers still have the tools to replicate their 2023-24 success, so Fox is arguably a value pick at his current ADP as the No. 10 defender off the board.

Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins (career FPPG: 2.02, last season FPPG: 1.83): An injury at the 4 Nations Face-Off certainly threw a wrench into McAvoy's season, but he was already having a down season by his standards. Whether he bounces back hinges a lot on whether the Bruins as a whole bounce back, or continue sinking toward a lottery pick.

Verdict: There is a very high ceiling for a rebound with how many minutes McAvoy can soak up with the top-heavy Bruins. He's worth picking up anytime after the first 24 blueliners are gone.

Sean Durzi, D, Utah Mammoth (career FPPG: 1.92, last season FPPG: 1.58): Let's just put a stop to this one right away: No, Durzi won't be a fantasy factor with Mikhail Sergachev healthy. While Durzi had a window as the franchise's power-play quarterback, it disappeared through a combination of injury and the acquisition of Sergachev last season.

Verdict: He'll be the one to step up should Sergachev miss time, but won't be bouncing back to his fantasy highs in the meantime.

Ivan Provorov, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (career FPPG: 1.81, last season FPPG: 1.45): The highs for Provorov's career came when he was the guy; the No. 1 defender for his squad. That just won't be the case with the Blue Jackets, even if injuries knock out his teammates higher on the depth chart.

Verdict: He's a minutes-muncher now and won't offer much for fantasy.

Brock Faber, D, Minnesota Wild (career FPPG: 1.73, last season FPPG: 1.51): The alliteration of "sophomore slump" makes it seem like something that occurs more frequently than it does in practice, but Faber didn't help the cause with his 2024-25 campaign. After setting the league ablaze with his rookie performance, the results were not there for fantasy managers last season. His 39 assists as a rookie were spiked by 13 power-play helpers. Does he still have a role on the advantage if Zeev Buium breaks through? That's probably the key question to whether Faber is a No. 2 fantasy blueliner or a solid No. 3.

Verdict: You don't have to overpay, but there is probably fantasy value here even without the power play. If he ends up as quarterback, the sky is the limit.