Quarterback has suddenly become somewhat of a revolving door for the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson all having short stints as the primary starter since Ben Roethlisberger hung up the cleats after the 2021 season.
Well, the Steelers will have yet another new starter in 2025, with veteran Aaron Rodgers on board following a two-year run with the New York Jets.
After spending the first 18 years of his career with the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers is now on his third team in four seasons. What can we expect from him in his 21st NFL season? What impact will he have on the Steelers?
Our analysts looked at the odds and all the ways to bet Rodgers and his new team to deliver their best bets.
Rodgers OVER 22.5 passing TDs (-125)
Liz Loza: Despite helming an offense meant to lean on the run and rely on the defense, Rodgers figures to post at least 23 TD passes in 2025. He has never logged fewer than 25 scores in any season in which he has played at least 15 games and has ranked among the top 10 at the position in terms of red zone attempts in all but one season since 2017.
Furthermore, while DK Metcalf's scoring prowess has waned in recent years, Calvin Austin III took a noticeable leap forward in his second season, registering four scores last year. And the addition of tight end Jonnu Smith, who recorded eight TDs in 2024, provides Rodgers with another solid red zone target. Finally, the competitiveness of the division sets up for plenty of close contests and potential point chasing, pushing Rodgers' scoring production.
Steelers OVER 8.5 wins (-120)
Matt Bowen: Rodgers' mobility and pocket poise are declining, but he's still an upgrade over Russell Wilson in Arthur Smith's offensive scheme. With the additions of DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith and rookie running back Kaleb Johnson, the Steelers have the ability to create explosive plays. Plus, the defense has the players to be one of the league's top units. Add in the coaching element of Mike Tomlin here, too, which gives the Steelers an edge and a path to competing for a spot on wild-card weekend.
Steelers UNDER 8.5 wins (Even)
Pamela Maldonado: Yes, the Steelers are coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons, but their schedule in 2025 is brutal, particularly in the second half. At 41 years of age, Rodgers isn't saving them, as his mobility and efficiency have fallen off. With an early Week 5 bye, the Steelers will be gassed when the schedule gets ugly. Taking unders bets on both Rodgers and the Steelers so much sense.
DK Metcalf OVER 925.5 receiving yards (-135)
Daniel Dopp: With or without Rodgers, Metcalf should be able to beat this mark. I would have preferred a little more love on the odds, but thinking that Metcalf falls short of 925.5 receiving yards feels wrong. Even if he plays in only 15 games this season, the line he needs to hit on a weekly basis is 62 receiving yards. For his six-year career, Metcalf has averaged 65 yards per game, and given the lack of receiving options in the Steelers' offense, who else is going to command targets? Yes, Arthur Smith stinks at getting pass catchers involved (that is well documented), but the Steelers just paid Metcalf $150 million to be their alpha WR1. I'm following the money and taking the over.
Metcalf OVER 6.5 TD receptions (-135)
Eric Moody: Metcalf leads the NFL in end zone targets since entering the league in 2019, yet he's coming off a career-low nine red zone looks in 2024. That should change in Pittsburgh, where he steps in as the clear No. 1 wide receiver for Rodgers on a team with a significant number of vacated targets. Metcalf has averaged 6.3 touchdowns per season since 2022. With George Pickens gone and a major upgrade at quarterback, Metcalf is positioned for positive touchdown regression. Given his consistent red zone usage and projected target volume, seven or more touchdowns is well within reach.
