Clay's Playbook: A game plan for your draft day

A new fantasy football season is upon us and -- if you tuned out after February's Super Bowl -- you have a lot of catching up to do.

The 2025 NFL offseason had a flurry of action that will bring massive changes to this season's fantasy landscape. There's a new wave of rookie running backs (led by potential first-round fantasy pick Ashton Jeanty), Davante Adams teamed up with Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles, Derek Carr suddenly retired and several notable quarterbacks found new homes, including Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

This initial installment of The Playbook takes a thorough, position-by-position look at that landscape and offers advice and information that can help you make sound decisions on draft day. The focus will be on average-sized, redraft leagues, but I didn't forget the more nuanced leagues, including dynasty, keeper, superflex and best ball, which soon will be covered in Part 2 of The Playbook.

The Playbook is a strategy piece for beginners and advanced players that shows you how I apply all that I've learned during my many years as a fantasy player and an offseason of research. I originally published a version of this series in 2021, but it is a living piece that I update substantially each year.

State of the Positions

Quarterback: The Big 4

Last season, Lamar Jackson (25.3), Josh Allen (22.3), Jalen Hurts (21.0) and Jayden Daniels (20.9) finished among the top 6 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Those four are the clear-cut top 4 fantasy QBs in 2025, and my goal on draft day is to acquire any one of the four. The reason these four make the cut and Joe Burrow (21.9) and Baker Mayfield (21.5) do not is simple: rushing ability. Burrow and Mayfield combined for 579 yards and five TDs on the ground last season; the "Big 4" averaged 741.8 yards and nine TDs (none of the four had fewer than 531 yards or six TDs).

The quarterback position has evolved to where big passing numbers aren't enough -- these guys need to be nothing short of elite in that category to keep up with the true dual-threat quarterbacks. Burrow and Mayfield run a bit, but both needed 40-plus passing TDs to hang with the Big 4 last season. Is that repeatable? Considering only seven QBs in league history have reached 40 passing TDs more than once (none has done it more than three times), it seems unlikely.

Burrow and Mayfield still have very good outlooks, so though I don't view them as elite, they're still solid, midrange QB1 options. And they're not alone. Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy are also in that conversation, along with additional fringe QB1s such as Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and dual-threat Justin Fields ... oh, and breakout candidates such as Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Cameron Ward and Michael Penix Jr.

Those players aren't quite the same difference-makers as the Big 4, which is why, unlike in some years, I'm willing to spend up on a quarterback in 2025. "Spending up" in this case will generally cost a third- or fourth-round pick, which isn't as expensive as years ago when superstar QBs like Allen would be a first-round pick in all fantasy leagues. The industry has wised up in that department, and casual drafters have caught on as well, which is why Allen, Jackson, Daniels and Hurts are palatable at their current draft cost.

Takeaway: There is a notable drop-off after the Big 4, so if you miss out on one of them, don't be afraid to wait quite a while before addressing your quarterback slot.

Running back: Spend up or go young?

Wide receiver has become the priority position in fantasy football, but hitting on impact running backs remains extremely important. As mentioned earlier, the deep 2025 rookie RB class is likely to make a sizable impact this season, and we also might see the end for several aging backs.

The average age of a top-15 fantasy running back (by scoring) the past five years is 25.1, as high as 25.9 in 2022 and as low as 24.1 in 2020. Only seven of the 75 RBs (9.3%) were 29 or older to begin the season; nine, if we include 28-year-olds. Although more than half of the exceptions came in 2024 (Derrick Henry fourth, Alvin Kamara ninth, James Conner 11th, Aaron Jones Sr. 15th), it's possible (maybe likely) we see a return to earth in 2025.

Why are these age stats notable? Christian McCaffrey (29), Joe Mixon (29), Conner (30), Henry (31), Kamara (30) and Jones (30) are all being selected in the early rounds, and each is entering his age-29 season or older. And that doesn't include Saquon Barkley, who is 28 years old and coming off a season in which he racked up 482 touches across 20 games, including the playoffs.

Can we still count on these veterans who have proven elite/reliable over the past half-decade and remain positioned for big workloads, or should we anticipate a regression in production, and lean into youth? Last season, targeting young backs was mostly successful, as Bijan Robinson (now 23 years old), Kyren Williams (25), Jahmyr Gibbs (23), James Cook (25) and De'Von Achane (23) worked out great. This year, we can add Bucky Irving (23), Kenneth Walker III (24), Chase Brown (25) and Breece Hall (24) to the list of 25-and-younger backs who could leap into, (or back into) the weekly RB1 mix ... and that doesn't include a loaded rookie class led by Jeanty (21), Omarion Hampton (22), Quinshon Judkins (21), RJ Harvey (24), TreVeyon Henderson (22), Kaleb Johnson (22) and Cam Skattebo (23), all who could play sizable roles immediately.

Many of these young backs are viable draft targets if you subscribe to some version of the "Zero RB" strategy, a drafting philosophy that involves not selecting a running back early, instead loading up on wide receivers (and perhaps an elite tight end or quarterback) in the first several rounds. Then, when top backs inevitably get injured, your opponents' rosters get worse and you can use your stashed backs and waivers to fill your RB slots, giving you an edge on the field.

This is a recommended strategy if you're set on avoiding the older/overworked backs and instead focused on eyeing young backs in the middle rounds. But if you spend none or one of your first five or so picks on a running back, you likely will enter the season with an uneasy feeling at RB2. With the well-documented high injury rate at the position, it's more than likely you'll fill that spot with a middle-round pick in the short term and a bench stash or waiver add later in the year.

Takeaway: Take an elite back early if you can, but don't push it if the value isn't there. Feel free to attack the other positions early and throw darts on values and rising-star RBs in the middle rounds.

Wide receiver: A few superstars and a million WR3s

Wide receiver has evolved into a bit of a top-heavy position, with a short list that includes Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers and Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the way. Each receiver is assured a hefty target share and is likely to cost you a first-round pick in 12-team leagues.

Things get trickier from there. Teams are utilizing three-plus wide receiver sets at a hefty rate (73% of pass plays in 2024) because the position is so strong across the league, and they're spreading the ball around to appease the talent. There are other respectable options for your WR1 slot, including Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown and Drake London, but it gets a bit risky after that because there's not a massive drop-off at the position from that point.

Tyreek Hill seems like a good post-hype target, but will he rebound at age 31? How will Davante Adams fare at 32 years old in Los Angeles? Rashee Rice is not only facing league discipline but also, is there enough room for him and Xavier Worthy to thrive in Kansas City? How will Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp jell with Sam Darnold in Seattle? Will Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze make a Year 2 leap? Will Mike Evans (32) and Chris Godwin (injury concern) have another big season? Can Garrett Wilson reach his ceiling with Justin Fields under center? How will DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers fare together? Can Jerry Jeudy overcome the Browns' QB questions?

There are a lot of tough questions in that paragraph, and that's only a partial list of players to consider in the early-to-middle rounds. The good news is that all of these receivers are expected to provide starting-caliber production, but they're all very close in value, which means you can monitor your draft's progression and take advantage of some very large tiers of similar players. There's so much uncertainty and depth that you'll be spending late-round picks on players who could easily be in the WR3 mix as early as Week 1. For example, veterans Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr. and potential breakout players Matthew Golden, Ricky Pearsall and Keon Coleman can be had after Round 7 in many 12-team leagues.

With wide receiver so deep, how do we sort through the congestion and properly identify which players to target?

Over the past five seasons, 43 of the top 50 wide receivers (86%) in fantasy points per game were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft (23 were first-rounders and only two were undrafted). During that span, 121 of the 150 top-30 WR fantasy campaigns (80%) have come from a player selected during the first three rounds. Only one (Jauan Jennings in 2024) came from a player selected in Round 6 or 7.

Only 32 of the 324 wide receivers (10%) picked in the NFL draft from 2015 to 2024 finished as a top-35 fantasy WR as a rookie (six finished in the top 12). Of those 32, only three (Nacua, Hill, St. Brown) were picked after the third round. Exceptions happen, but history tells us to avoid reaching on players with low hit rates and focus on a player's past production.

We should also focus on second-year receivers who were good as rookies. Since 2000, 30 of 42 WRs (71%) who finished in the top 30 in fantasy points as a rookie repeated as a top-30 WR in Year 2. With injuries so prominent in the NFL, that is a shockingly high hit rate and worth our attention. Last season, Harrison, Thomas, Nabers and Ladd McConkey were top-30 finishers, with Worthy (33rd) just missing the cut. History says most of them will repeat their success in 2025.

On the other hand, I did some research to determine if it was worthwhile to target post-hype, second-year receivers who struggled as rookies. It depends on just how much they struggled. The magic number seems to be 90, as in, if a wide receiver did not finish in the top 90 at the position in fantasy points as a rookie, you can all but throw in the towel.

Fifty of the 133 WRs (38%) taken in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL draft from 2014 to 2023 finished worse than 90th in wide receiver fantasy points as rookies. Only five of the 50 had a single top-30 season: Nelson Agholor, Jameson Williams, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams and DJ Chark Jr. None managed a top-10 campaign, and only Mike Williams and Chark cracked the top 20. Mike Williams is the biggest success story from the group thus far, and it took him until his fifth season to crack the top 30. As long as you're somewhat competent as a rookie, you have a shot at success. If you're all but a nonfactor, you're likely a lost cause.

We saw an example of this last season, as this same column warned you to avoid 2023 Round 1-3 WRs who struggled as rookies. Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Jonathan Mingo, Tre Tucker and Marvin Mims Jr. were all outside the top 80 as rookies and, though Tillman flashed for a minute, the best finish by the group in 2024 was Mims' 57th.

So, who does this study suggest we avoid in 2025? Adonai Mitchell (112th), Luke McCaffrey (127th), Ja'Lynn Polk (129th), Jermaine Burton (154th), Malachi Corley (190th) and Roman Wilson (216th) comprise the list of 2024 receivers taken in Rounds 1-3 who finished their rookie season outside the top 90 receivers in fantasy points. History tells us that, though maybe one of these guys will make a leap, it's very unlikely, so we shouldn't invest much in them. Instead, we can focus on high-potential rookies or post-hype, second-year players who at least showed some flashes in Year 1. Players who fit that bill include Thomas, Nabers, McConkey, Harrison, Worthy, Odunze, Coleman, Pearsall, Jalen McMillan and Xavier Legette.

Takeaway: Ideally, you're grabbing a star receiver early, but the position is deep with veteran talent and a strong corps of talented young stars, so there's no need to force things. When it comes to early-career sleepers and breakouts, history shows that draft position matters. NFL scouts do a pretty good job of identifying the high-ceiling guys, so, for the most part, trust their work.

Tight end: A good year to spend up

Each year, it seems like tight end will finally be a deep position full of viable starters ... and each year, the position lets us down. This season, I recommend attacking the position relatively early, perhaps even spending an early pick on Brock Bowers or Trey McBride.

The top two scoring tight ends from 2024 were not only good at their position, but they were good when stacked up against top wide receivers (if we combine the two positions, Bowers ranked ninth in points and McBride 12th). That's more than enough justification to consider the tight ends in the second or third round of your draft.

The only thing stopping me from pouncing on either is George Kittle's availability a round or two later (Kittle's 15.8 PPG last season was better than Bowers' 15.5 and McBride's 15.6). And, if I miss on any of those three, Sam LaPorta in the sixth-round range is also palatable, and perhaps T.J. Hockenson a round later.

After that? Major questions. David Njoku has QB concerns, Travis Kelce, 35, has more target competition, Mark Andrews saw a huge target dip last season, Evan Engram is with Denver, Jonnu Smith was traded to Pittsburgh, which already has Pat Freiermuth, Dallas Goedert (who also has durability concerns) has been the subject of trade rumors, and Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts haven't lived up to their first-round expectations.

I recommend avoiding that mess. If not, there's not much sense in prioritizing the position early in your draft, especially because I didn't mention other, similarly valued tight ends such as Tucker Kraft and rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.

Takeaway: This is the year to prioritize landing an elite tight end. If you miss out on the top tier or two, it's a lot of the same, so there's not much sense in drafting one until the middle-to-late rounds.

D/ST: Same as usual

If you're not streamin', you're not strivin'. Or something like that. You know how you slightly adjust expectations for your offensive starters based on the defensive matchup? That logic should be applied to your D/ST decisions. It's more about the offense than the defense. Stream defenses in plus matchups and profit.

Kicker: Ditto

Daniel Carlson finished as fantasy's top kicker in 2021 and 2022. Did that convince you to reach for him a bit in your 2023 draft? If so, you had with fantasy's No. 24 kicker. Before Carlson's streak, the last No. 1-scoring kicker to finish in the top 10 the following season was Matt Bryant in 2017. Brandon Aubrey (a top-2 scorer each of the past two seasons) can't be trusted, nor can reigning No. 1 fantasy kicker Chris Boswell, whose past five season finishes are first, 17th, 31st, fourth and 25th. Don't draft a kicker before the final round. In fact, don't pick one unless forced to (you can always add one just prior to Week 1 kickoff).

Draft strategy

You should have a pretty good feel for the 2025 fantasy football player pool, so let's do a little housecleaning before we head off to the draft room.

Early rounds

Outside of "give me a good sleeper," the question I'm asked most often is, "What should I do with my first pick?"

I already discussed some sleeper strategies, so let's address the latter. In the past, running backs dominated the first round, with a few wide receivers and, at times, even quarterbacks a part of the conversation. However, the combination of the high injury rate at running back, the depth at quarterback and the consistent production of a few elite receivers has closed the gap over the past decade. Wide receiver is generally the preferred and safest position in Round 1, with some subscribing to a version of the aforementioned "Zero RB" strategy.

So, do you follow the trend and avoid RBs early or gain an edge by stacking a pair of RB1s with your first two picks? It somewhat depends on where you're drafting in the first round, but the best way to maximize your lineup will require flexibility and quick thinking.

If you have the first pick this year, the right answer is to select Chase. Will he repeat his historical 2024 campaign? Probably not, but he still would be well worth that price tag. After Chase, I'm going with Robinson, but it's definitely dealer's choice at this point. WRs Jefferson, Lamb, Nacua, Nabers and St. Brown are excellent targets, as are RBs Barkley, Gibbs, McCaffrey and perhaps Achane and Jeanty. This isn't always the case, but there's no wrong answer to "RB or WR in the first round?" this year. Elite, high-volume backs are so hard to find, but wide receiver arguably dries up even quicker this year, which makes the top options more appealing.

As for choosing a draft slot (if you get the choice), aim for the earliest pick, and that applies this year, too. I can draft an elite player with my first pick and still land another pair of stars at the Round 2/3 turn. That list of players includes Kyren Williams, Cook, Bowers, McBride, London, Tee Higgins and McConkey. I'll take that every time, especially because the later stages of the third round aren't quite as appealing.

Middle rounds

That covers the first few rounds, but what about the rest? During my draft, I'm keeping track of whom I've picked and which positions need filling, but I'm never passing on an obvious value, even if it's not a position of need. Rarely do I complete a draft in which there wasn't a player who plummeted well beyond his ADP, and I anxiously awaited my opportunity to pounce. (How brutal is it when that player is chosen right before you're on the clock?!?)

Passing on value is an obvious recipe for disaster over the long term, but many do it. There are always players -- think peak Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Derrick Mason, Pierre Garcon, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman -- who consistently fell too far in drafts and often proved solid values. These players aren't new or young or exciting, but I've always feasted on them. You don't need a home run with every pick to win the title. You need to reach the playoffs first and, from there, you need a competent lineup and some luck. To achieve both, having a couple of reliable starters (such as Courtland Sutton and Jakobi Meyers) is key.

Here's something else to think about: We don't fully acknowledge as an industry how different our lineups look in the playoffs than entering Week 1. I can recall a championship-winning team in an FSGA industry league that included ZERO running backs that I drafted. And that's why focusing too much on filling out a perfect lineup on draft day isn't as important as collecting the best talent possible. Where is the line? You'll know it when you see it (aka when guys such as Sutton and Meyers are staring you in the face).

Call me a value-based drafter. Call me conservative. I don't care. I'm happy as long as you can't call me someone who is giving an edge to my opponents.