EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsIn the Week 3 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, a 30-27 Pittsburgh Steelers win at home, Jaylen Warren produced 176 total yards on 20 touches and Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, completing five passes of 20 or more yards.However, this Steelers' pass game has lacked rhythm over the last two games, as Rodgers threw for less than 215 yards in both while completing only 58.2% of his attempts. This is a team that has been reliant on Warren (two straight games with over 100 yards rushing) and the rushing attack, as well as a top-10 defense allowing only 18.0 PPG (tied for fourth fewest in the league). But Rodgers and the Steelers will need to create some explosive plays through the air to match the Bengals. Let's see if they made some adjustments/corrections off the bye week.Based on the numbers and the game tape, Joe Burrow is currently playing the best football in the league at the quarterback position. Over his last five games, Burrow is averaging 328.6 yards passing and completing over 75% of his throws, tossing 17 touchdown passes over that stretch. Timing, location, pocket mobility ... it's all there. And Burrow has an elite combination of receivers in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Multi-level route runners and high-end matchup targets.However, the Bengals' run game with Chase Brown is still looking for a way to create efficiency, and the defense, while creating splash plays, is giving up 354.9 yards per game (eighth most).Betting outlookI would stay with the trends when betting this game. That means taking the safe plays on Burrow with yards and completions, as I do see the Bengals rolling with a pass-heavy script.Cincy isn't generating consistent production on the ground (85.6 yards per game), and the Steelers are allowing only 3.6 YPC. Throw the ball here to stay ahead of the sticks.I like Warren as a dual-threat option, which allows me to bet his rushing + receiving total, but I'm going to stay lower on Rodgers in this one. The Steelers have been winning with an old-school identity, and it allows them to control tempo.Notable player props, betsNote: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.Joe Burrow completions OVER 27 (-132)Bowen: Burrow completed 28 passes in the Week 3 matchup versus the Steelers, and he has at least 27 completions in three of his last six games. The Bengals will be aggressive throwing the ball Sunday night.Jaylen Warren rushing yards OVER 63.5 (-114)Pam Maldonado: Warren's rushing workload has held up, even with Rico Dowdle back. Cincinnati allows a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry and has surrendered 11 runs of at least 20 yards. Warren can take advantage of those lighter defensive fronts, as he averages 6.0 yards per carry against them. Pittsburgh has leaned on the run of late, and this matchup gives reason to continue that trend. Dowdle taking touches is a concern, but Warren doesn't need every carry to get past this number Sunday night.Jaylen Warren rushing + receiving yards OVER 93 (-111)Bowen: Warren has produced 100 or more total yards in five of his last six games and now gets a Bengals run front allowing 5.0 YPC (most in the league). His ability as a receiver gives Rodgers a consistent outlet in the pass game.
