EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsJACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The play was designed to get receiver Brian Thomas Jr. open, and it worked. He was in the end zone and had a cushion of space around him -- an easy throw for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Thomas then emphatically fired the ball into the wall behind the end zone at EverBank Stadium.Thomas' second touchdown of the season capped a 98-yard drive on the Jaguars' opening possession in their resounding 42-7 victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Two weeks after getting benched in the second half of the team's loss to the Houston Texans in London (and amid rumors and reports of being on the trading block), Thomas got a bit of redemption with that catch and celebration.Head coach Liam Coen has maintained that Thomas, despite his struggles, remains a significant part of the offense -- despite Thomas being targeted by Lawrence only nine times in the past three games."We're going to continue to work with him and continue to try to get the most out of every player, especially BT," Coen said. "But I have been impressed with the way that he's able to block out the noise, continue to be integrated with everybody."But with the Nov. 10 trade deadline a week away, the speculation that the former first-round pick will be shipped out isn't going to go away. His production has dropped significantly from his rookie season in 2024, he has fallen down the depth chart, and he has more than twice as many drops (10) as touchdown catches (four) in his past 21 games.What are the ramifications of dealing Thomas or keeping him? And more importantly, how did things deteriorate so quickly that the team might be ready to part with a player who had one of the best rookie seasons in franchise history less than two years ago?Thomas' good rookie season ... but was it a mirage?Thomas was selected with the No. 23 pick in the 2024 draft. As a rookie, he finished third in the NFL in receiving yards (1,282) and tied for sixth in touchdowns (10) and yards after the catch (570). He appeared to be on his way to becoming one of the NFL's best players.Thomas found that success when he was forced to become the focal point of the offense that year due to injuries. Lawrence missed seven full games over the course of the season after suffering head and shoulder injuries, which led Mac Jones to start in his place. Top receivers Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis missed a combined 16 games, and tight end Evan Engram landed on the injured reserve in Week 15.Thomas, meanwhile, had a team-high 132 targets, which was more than double that of the next closest player (Engram, 64). In Weeks 13-18, he had 10 or more targets, caught five touchdown passes and topped 100 yards three times -- all with Jones at QB.The Jaguars force-fed Thomas the ball out of necessity that season, and while it worked for him, the team ended the season with a 4-13 record. As a result, head coach Doug Pederson was fired when the season ended, and general manager Trent Baalke followed him out the door weeks later.Thomas' second season featured a brand-new offenseJaguars owner Shad Khan hired Coen, GM James Gladstone and executive vice president of football operations Tony Boselli. They wasted no time in trying to better the team. Minutes before the 2025 draft, Gladstone made a trade with the Cleveland Browns to move up three spots in the first round so they could pick Travis Hunter, a Heisman-winning receiver and cornerback, at No. 2 overall. The main question was how much Hunter would play on both sides of the ball.During training camp, the Jaguars started Hunter on offense and gradually worked him in on defense. At the same time, Thomas looked uncomfortable at times in training camp while learning Coen's new offense. He and Lawrence weren't connecting well, and frustration was apparent. Thomas kicked a football after failing to make a high-difficulty catch in the end zone and twice took off his helmet and slammed it to the ground after a drop or incompletion.Thomas' difficulties in the offense continued into the regular season, when he dropped five passes in the first five games and there were several instances when he appeared to shy away from contact. By the time Week 7 rolled around, Coen gave Hunter the nod at WR1. He caught eight passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. However, Hunter's role as top receiver didn't last long, as he suffered a season-ending knee injury during practice before the next game.From Weeks 1-8, Thomas tallied 364 yards (ranked 41st in NFL) with one touchdown and had 30 catches on 60 targets. He suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 9 against Las Vegas and missed the next three games. While Thomas was recovering, the Jaguars acquired WR Jakobi Meyers via a trade, and he instantly clicked with Lawrence.Thomas returned to the lineup in Week 13 but had a slightly reduced role. After being targeted 48 times with a 23.4% team target share in the first six games, Thomas was targeted 31 times with a 15.6% team target share in the last six games of the season.By the time the season ended, Thomas caught 48 passes for 707 yards and two touchdowns. After dropping five passes in his first five games, Thomas dropped just one the rest of the season and his per-catch average matched what he did as a rookie (14.7).People inside the organization, according to sources with knowledge, were mystified as to why Thomas struggled in his second season. Did a hard hit he took in the preseason opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers shake his confidence? Did the wrist injury that he suffered in Week 2 (but played through) impact him?Thomas didn't have the answer, though he admitted that he needed a reset. When he returned this past spring, he came in with a detailed workout and nutrition plan and was determined to put 2025 behind him."I wake up every day motivated just to be better, being a better person, trying to be the better teammate, better leader," Thomas said in the spring. "Just coming out here trying to be the best that I can be. Putting my best foot forward each and every day. Just continue to stay motivated. Don't let anything get in the way of [his motivation]. Don't let the downs get in the way of it."Whatever you got going on in life, whether it's outside of football, in football, just don't let that stop you or control your mindset [or] the way you think about things."Growing optimism heading into 2026Thomas had an offseason goal of strengthening his hands and improving his hand-eye connection. So, he worked on catching balls inches away from a JUGS machine, jamming his hands into a bucket of sand and moving them around, and catching tennis balls.As a result, Thomas had one of the best showings in the spring and at Jaguars training camp. He was no longer double-catching balls."I've been pleased with how strong his hands have been at the point of contact," Coen said at the time. "Those contested catches that obviously the quarterback's going to continue to trust him in those positions, we all trust him to make those plays. I think we're just continuing to see from the spring to now, just taking those steps that we all wanted to see and, and that we're all excited to see."In August, Thomas said he had never felt better physically and mentally heading into a season, so expectations were high again. His chemistry with Lawrence, especially on deeper throws, seemed to be improved.But the production and usage of Thomas hasn't been there to start the 2026 season. Through seven games, he has 10 catches for 117 yards and two touchdowns on 21 targets. His touchdown catch on Sunday was his first catch since Week 4. No catches in Week 5 marked the first time in his career he didn't have at least one reception. Thomas' target share among Jaguars receivers is 10.8%, significantly below where it was a year ago.And now the trade rumors and speculation that had been out there in February and March -- Gladstone called any reports that they were shopping him "fraudulent claims" -- are back.What happens if the Jaguars trade Thomas?This is pretty straightforward. There will be more work on offense for emerging rookie Josh Cameron and Hunter. That's what happened in the second half of the Week 6 loss to Houston after Thomas was benched at halftime after one drop and failing to come up with a catchable ball in the first half.Cameron wasn't targeted against the Texans but ran 11 of his 17 routes in the second half. Hunter caught three passes for 40 yards and a touchdown after catching one pass for 19 yards in the first half. Hunter's offensive role is expected to expand as the season progresses anyway, but Thomas being moved would likely accelerate that.A season-ending torn right quadriceps muscle to nose tackle DaVon Hamilton -- whom Coen and teammates have called the key to the Jaguars' top-ranked run defense (77.4 yards per game allowed) -- reinforces the defensive line as the top priority in a potential trade ahead of the deadline. The Jaguars need a player who can provide some inside pass rush, as well. If the Jaguars are willing to trade Thomas, he could be part of a potential package to acquire a need.What happens if the Jaguars don't trade Thomas?This is a little more involved. Coen said last week he still believed Thomas would be a significant part of the offense and that he and the team weren't giving up on him.Where, exactly, does Thomas fit in going forward?Parker Washington (24.5%), tight end Brenton Strange (17.9%) and Meyers (15.8%) are the team's top three receivers in terms of target percentage. Thomas is fourth at 10.7%, but if his role is diminished, Cameron and/or Hunter would likely move into that spot. If those two play more snaps and get more targets, that would push Thomas lower.It's rare that a team's No. 5 receiver doesn't play special teams -- Cameron is the Jaguars' kick returner and plays on all four special teams units -- but Thomas doesn't play there. So, would the Jaguars keep Thomas active on game day then?Thomas would be valuable to have if an injury bug strikes the receiving room down the stretch, but is the insurance policy worth not trying to get something in return for someone who is your No. 4 or No. 5 receiver?If the Jaguars don't trade Thomas, they'll be faced with whether to pick up his fifth-year option in the offseason. If they don't pick up the option, the 2027 season will be the last year of his rookie contract and he would then become a free agent in spring 2028. That's something that would have been laughable after Thomas' rookie season, but there's a real possibility Thomas won't be on the roster when the team opens the 2028 season in its newly renovated stadium -- or maybe even sooner."BT has come in here and worked day in and day out," running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. said recently. "He's never negative, always positive. And we don't really worry about social media or what the outside world thinks."
