EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsValue is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: find betting value.Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 8.From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. Let's get into it.Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.Jump to:Bowen's favorite betsSolak's plays | Walder's propsClay's TD projectionsBowen's favorite betsLooking at the Week 8 slate, we'll start with my top game in Detroit, as Jared Goff and an explosive Lions offense face the blitz-heavy Minnesota Vikings. I also have a total I like in the Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup, and let's hit on another two-team teaser. As always, I'll give also give you some props I like.Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions1 p.m. ET on Fox, Ford Field, DetroitThe Vikings' low-volume pass game has lacked rhythm with Kyler Murray under center, which has resulted in declining numbers for Justin Jefferson. It's a better matchup Sunday versus a Lions defense allowing a league-high 291.8 passing yards per game. This is the game to isolate and scheme for Jefferson.However, the key in-game matchup to watch is Goff versus Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Goff is going to see consistent pressure from the Vikings, who own a league-high blitz rate of 69.9%. Overload fronts, plus A/B gap blitzes to dent the pocket, which limits Goff's ability to climb/step up in the pocket. But Goff has been really good this season versus the blitz, completing 72.7% of his throws (third highest) while registering a 79.4 QBR (fifth highest).My take? The Lions have enough answers to create manageable pockets, while giving Goff quicker reads (and timing throws). Detroit covers the three points at home (-120).Jahmyr Gibbs receptions OVER 4.5 (-03)What are your immediate counters to pressure from the Vikings? Throw screens. Yes, Gibbs will be asked to play a critical role as a blocker in pass protection versus Flores' defense, but the Lions can deploy him on screens and quick releases from the backfield to beat the blitz, too. Gibbs has five or more receptions in five or six games played.Browns at Steelers OVER 39.5 (-105)I get why the total is lower in this one. Both teams rank in the top 12 of defensive scoring and yards allowed per game. Plus, the Pittsburgh offense has lacked consistent big-play ability in recent weeks. However, when these teams me in Week 4 in Cleveland, the total hit 51. Aaron Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, and the Browns rushed for 112 yards. The weather looks good for Sunday in Pittsburgh. Give me the over.Two team, 6.5-point teaser (-143): Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) and Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (Even)We hit on a two-team teaser last week, so let's bring it back, starting in Jacksonville. The Colts are unloading talent as part of a rebuild, with both Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner leaving via trade this week. So, we'll take the Jaguars off the bye. And teasing the spread down to 3.5 points is more comfortable than a touchdown and a field goal.What changes could have the 0-6 Chargers made during the bye week to jumpstart their offense? I expect to see some improvement, with more rhythm in the pass game for Justin Herbert. That's a start. But getting the Rams to even money (down from a 6.5-point favorite) is the play here.Omar Cooper Jr. receiving yards OVER 41.5 (-114)Since returning from an ankle injury in Week 6, the rookie out of Indiana has been schemed up in the New York Jets' game plan, and he's making plays. Cooper has posted back-to-back games of 100 or more yards receiving with at least five receptions in each. Cooper is an explosive, power strider who can produce numbers after the catch, plus he can get loose down the field on shot-play throws (three catches of 48 or more yards in his last two games). With his big-play potential and steady volume, I like the over to hit Sunday versus the Las Vegas Raiders.Derrick Henry total yards OVER 90.5 (-114)This feels like a big number given that Henry has posted 60 or fewer total yards in back-to-back games. But the volume is there -- 18 or more touches in every game played this season -- and Henry gets a positive matchup versus a Buffalo Bills defense allowing 120 total yards per game to opposing running backs. This should be a get-right game for Henry.George Pickens anytime TD (+100)Pickens has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games, and he has matchup advantages versus the Arizona Cardinals defense. This unit has allowed a league-high 17 touchdown passes this season and gave up 23 receptions of 20 or more yards (tied for sixth most). The Cardinals also play a bunch of Cover 2 (36.2% of opponent dropbacks), so there will be opportunities to isolate Pickens on a safety this Sunday.Kyle Pitts Sr. anytime TD (+285)Pitts, who is playing his best football of the season, has seen his usage elevate over his last three games. During this stretch, Pitts has posted five-plus receptions in three straight -- with at least one touchdown grab in each -- and he has seen a total of six red zone targets. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' ability to dial up zone pressure is a factor here, but that defense has also allowed an average of 5.7 receptions per game to tight ends this season.Solak's playsZay Flowers OVER 6.5 receptions (+112)The Bills are one of the worst coverage teams in football, and the performance of WR1s against them is evidence to that point. In Week 2, Amon-Ra St. Brown had nine catches for 142 yards. In Week 5, Puka Nacua had a whopping 17 receptions for 138 yards. Even Tre Tucker of the Raiders (5 catches, 97 yards) and Romeo Doubs of the Patriots (6 catches, 58 yards) had big performances going up against Buffalo.I continue to be enamored with Flowers' usage in Declan Doyle's offense. He has lined up more in the slot this season than ever before, and the Ravens easily manufacture him quick touches on crossing patterns and in the screen game. Flowers has had at least eight catches in three of his last four games and, in the two games to start the season (five catches apiece), he was hampered by a hamstring injury. The Ravens are going to use him at a high volume in every game, but this Bills matchup is particularly ripe for plenty of targets.Flowers is also +145 to score a touchdown in this game. The Bills have given up 11 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, more than any other defense in football. In fact, the Bills are coming off of their bye week ... and still lead the league in receiving touchdowns surrendered to wide receivers. I will be tracking both of these bets.Kyler Murray OVER 24.5 rushing yards (-104)We might finally see the Vikings in a trailing game script, as they are 3-point dogs at Detroit this Sunday. This Detroit defense is also a pass-funnel unit in general. They have seen the highest called-pass rate (69%) among league defenses, and their pass rate over expectation of plus-4.7% also leads football. Murray is simply going to have a lot of dropbacks.This could be the game in which Murray pushes the ball more and hunts explosives. However, the Lions have actually ratcheted down their blitz rates over the past couple of weeks -- they only blitzed on 19% of their dropbacks against the Packers -- and have also increased the rate at which they're playing man coverage. More man coverage means more scrambling opportunities for Murray, who has posted 51 and 39 yards in his last two games, with long runs of 18 and 35 yards respectively.We can get home on just one big run, but I think there will be several scampers for Murray in this game. Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions' premiere edge rusher, tends to attack the quarterback a little bit out of control, which creates easy escape lanes and quick yardage opportunities. Expect a big game for Murray's legs here.Chicago Bears +3 (-105) at Seattle SeahawksI liked this number before Jeffery Simmons became a Bear. Lord only knows how much he'll play, but I like it plenty -- with the potential for some snaps from an All-Pro defensive tackle as well.Seattle played a great game against the Chiefs on Sunday. The Seahawks look to get reinforcements in the running game with the potential returns of RBs Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price, alongside their own trade acquisition, G Quenton Nelson. Still, I'm worried about the erratic play of quarterback Sam Darnold, who ranks fifth among all passers in interception plus sack rate per dropback at 11.2%. The Bears are a blitz-happy team that invites the worst from the quarterbacks they play. When blitzed, Darnold has a 51.5% pressure rate, fifth among all quarterbacks. He also has the second-longest time to throw at 3.21 seconds. Chicago defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is going to get a few disasters out of Sam.Will that be enough to keep it within three points? I like Caleb Williams' creative playmaking and unique arm talent as a challenge to break this vaunted Seattle defense. Remember, Matthew Stafford's aggressiveness and high velocity was a huge challenge for the Seahawks last season. Williams can do similar stuff.Carnell Tate over 51.5 receiving yards (-112)The rookie No. 4 overall pick is starting to settle in nicely with Cam Ward after a rocky September. Tate has cleared this number in four of his last five contests and the Titans are especially using him more downfield. Since Week 3, Tate has averaged 12.8 air yards per target (16th among all receivers) with a 26.7% team target share (11th among all receivers). That's what we call prime usage right there, baby.Of course, the Bengals are a tough draw. CB1 DJ Turner is a quality man cover player who may shadow Tate across the formation. The Bengals are surrendering only 1.34 yards per route run to receivers this year, the fourth-lowest figure among all defenses. But the potential for a blowout is so high here -- the Titans are a 12.5-point underdog -- that Tate can get blanketed in the first half and still get to this number in garbage time. The Bengals are also pass-happy on offense, which means their pace allows for more opposition snaps (and dropbacks) down the stretch.If this feels too big for you pre-flop, look to take Tate live at halftime if the Bengals have a big first-half lead.Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Dallas CowboysDo the Cowboys deserve a touchdown margin against anybody? Their most recent display was a nationally-televised drubbing of a hugely depleted Eagles team -- Philadelphia's fifth-straight loss. However, prior to that, Dallas dropped embarrassing performances against the Jalon Daniels-led Buccaneers and unable-to-run Packers. The running game impressed against the Eagles, but even if they continue down that path, they'll shorten this game and make it tougher to outpace the Cardinals by a full score.Arizona also looks to be getting reinforcements back into their lineup. RB Jeremiyah Love is back at practice (limited on Wednesday and Thursday) as he returns from an ankle injury, but it sounds like he has a chance to go on Sunday. The same is true of cornerback Max Melton, who missed Week 7 due to a knee injury. Especially if Love can provide some additional juice out of the backfield, Arizona has plenty of offensive firepower to keep this game close. If it ends up being a multi-score deficit in the fourth quarter, the Dallas secondary is soft enough to allow for easy conversions and a backdoor cover.Malik Willis UNDER 183.5 passing yards (-112)Last week, the Dolphins embarrassed the Jets for their first win of the season and will now host another divisional opponent; a Patriots team coming out of a mini-bye (they played on Thursday night in Week 7). That extra rest has allowed the Patriots to get more healthy in the secondary. They'll field all five starters (cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzalez, safeties Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson, and nickel Marcus Jones) beside one another for the first time since Week 2.Meanwhile, the Patriots are allowing only 152.1 passing yards per game to opponents -- second only to the Vikings for the lowest mark in football. Willis cleared 200 passing yards last week against the Jets, but only on his last throw -- a 63-yard touchdown to salt the game away. The explosion of backup RB Ollie Gordon II over the last few weeks has kept the Dolphins extremely run-heavy as a team -- Miami has a pass rate over expectation of minus-10.3%.The potential for blowout production is always looming, but the Patriots should be able to keep the Dolphins' passing game so limited on the neutral script that even a big second-half will come in below this number.Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and major NFL awards futures.Walder's prop betsNote: More defensive props will be added as odds become availableDefensive playsChicago Bears D/ST anytime touchdown (+600)We made effectively this same bet against Sam Darnold last week and it didn't come through for us, but why not try again? Darnold remains a high-risk QB for a defensive score, with eight interceptions on the year and a higher-than-average sack rate. And while the Bears defense isn't good, it has managed to rank 16th in EPA per play this season (and without being overly turnover reliant like last year, either). Plus, the Bears offense is so good that Seattle might be losing in this game. Plus, this means we get new Bear Jeffery Simmons on our side. I price this at +478.Cincinnati Bengals to NOT allow a first-drive sack (-482)We're 6-0 betting these heavily favored unders, including on the Bengals last week. And I'm running it back with them. The key is Joe Burrow's 4.2% sack rate, which is seventh best among qualifying quarterbacks. This is an area that used to be a weakness for Burrow that he has now turned into a strength. And against the woebegone Titans, there's no need for him to take any crazy risks early in the game.Offensive playsTrevor Lawrence interceptions UNDER 0.5 (-117)Lawrence has thrown four interceptions this year, which is middle of the pack, but his accuracy numbers have been excellent. The Jaguars quarterback has the lowest off-target rate in the league and a plus-4% completion percentage over expected (seventh best). And against the Colts he will have to take far fewer risks! That would have been true regardless, but with the Indianapolis fire sale already underway, the Jaguars are big favorites over the Colts. That likely means fewer passes put in harms way and also just fewer passes, period.Jaylen Warren receptions UNDER 2.5 (+117)I've pointed out several times in this space that running backs catch passes against zone coverage at almost twice the rate (15% of dropbacks) that they do against man (8%). And that in my back-testing research, this fact was not fully baked into the prop market. Thus far, that strategy has not worked out for us in a few bets this year. But we're hanging in there! The league as a whole has shifted away from man coverage, which made up 50% of dropbacks in 2019 but just 41% now. But the team that has resisted that change more than anyone else is the Browns, who play man coverage 61% of the time (the only team over 60%). That should make it more difficult for Warren to catch passes Sunday.Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorersWho will score a touchdown this week? Whether you intend to make an anytime touchdown bet, are setting a DFS lineup or simply enjoy peering into a crystal ball, I have a prediction for you.Every week, we generate fantasy football projections for every game on the slate, and that includes the probability that a player will take the ball into the end zone.Here are my top predicted scorers for Week 8, ordered by their implied odds*, as well as the anytime touchdown moneyline offered by DraftKings at time of publication. These implied odds are what my projections consider the fair odds of that player to score on an anytime touchdown bet.For the latest odds on these and all other player props, visit DraftKings.*Implied odds convert the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a moneyline. Look for implied odds that are higher than the moneyline offered. For example if the implied odds are -150 and the moneyline is -110, then Clay's projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.
