EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsCanelo Alvarez will look to win back one of the titles he lost to Terence Crawford in September 2025 when he faces WBC super middleweight champion Christian Mbilli on Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (DAZN PPV, 1 p.m. ET).Alvarez (63-3-2, 39 KOs) has a significant edge in experience, having fought in 28 title bouts during his career. This will be Mbilli's first world title fight since he was elevated from interim champion to full WBC champion in January.Mbilli (29-0-1, 24 KOs) is a relentless pressure fighter with good punching power and effective combinations. Unlike Alvarez, Mbilli tends to be more dangerous in the later rounds. And while Canelo will look to capitalize on his trademark left hook to the body and head, he will need to be aware of Mbilli's looping right hand over the top.Can Alvarez's experience overcome Mbilli's aggression? Former champion Raul Marquez, current interim WBC super middleweight champion Lester Martinez (who fought to a split draw with Mbilli last year) and boxing analyst Al Bernstein break down the matchup, explain how the fight could unfold and share their picks.Editor's note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.Raul Marquez, boxing analyst, retired former junior middleweight champion and member of the Nevada Boxing Hall of FameThe matchupI think it's a good matchup. I mean, it's a tough fight for both guys, being that they haven't fought in a while. Because of the style that Mbilli brings -- he's very rugged and he's very aggressive -- I think it plays into Canelo's favor. Canelo, he's good at dealing with guys that come forward; he knows how to box them very well. He's a good counterpuncher and good body puncher. Plus, he's got the experience of being in high-level fights. He's got a lot more experience than Mbilli does. Mbilli can be reckless at times. He's strong, he's got power, but Canelo still has a lot to give at age 36.How does Canelo win the fight?Canelo needs to box early on. He's not going to have to find Mbilli. Mbilli's going to be there to be hit. So, use the jab, a good body attack to break him. Canelo needs to just be the counterpuncher he is when he boxes fighters that come forward. I think Canelo is strong enough to handle Mbilli's pressure because he's fought big guys like Sergey Kovalev (6-foot) and Dmitry Bivol (6-foot). He's fought Gennadiy "GGG" Golovkin (5-foot-10). He's got experience of fighting big guys like that.Canelo's downfall could be if he's trying to single punch like he did with Crawford. In the Crawford fight, he made the mistake of not throwing three- and four-punch combinations, and I think that hurt him. It's important that Canelo puts his punches together and not try to load up one shot.In that fight, Canelo was flatfooted, too. He was stuck in mud when he fought Crawford. His defense was not the same. I don't know if that was his age showing. He's getting up there and he's been in a lot of wars. If Canelo fights like that against Mbilli, it's going to be a long night for him.Mbilli is going to make Canelo work. He's coming to fight, he's confident, he throws a lot of punches, he's strong. With a guy like that, you've got to have a good body attack. And every time Canelo throws punches, they've got to be in three- or four-punch combinations, giving Mbilli angles to deal with. Canelo has to be at least 50, 60% of the Canelo that we know, not the Canelo that fought Crawford.How does Mbilli win the fight?He's got to start fast. As soon as the bell rings, don't waste any time. He's got to cut the distance, make that ring small and go to work, because that's his style. When Canelo's not working, Mbilli's got to be working. And yeah, he's going to take some shots to get inside, but hopefully he won't take too many. Mbilli has to use a lot of feints, a lot of defense, a lot of head movement coming in. You don't want to get hit flush by Canelo, so Mbilli needs to have good defense so he can get to work and try to push Canelo back. There's no way he's going to outbox Canelo. I don't see that happening. So, his fight is to come forward with pressure and volume, hard punches and have a good chin. That's the only way he can win.When Canelo goes to the body, Mbilli's got to counter on top of that and push him back. Don't allow Canelo to think. When you give him space to think, that's when Canelo's at his best. So Mbilli has got to make him work when Canelo doesn't want to work. That's what I would do. You've got to be busy with Canelo. You've got to push him back. If Mbilli has Canelo going backwards and puts him on the ropes, puts him in the corners, he could be successful. But that's a big "if."X factorCanelo's age. If Canelo starts slowly with his feet and is throwing one punch at a time, that's big for Mbilli. That should have him thinking, "Man, I've got a chance of winning this fight." Because that would mean Canelo is showing his age. I mean, it's not that he's 40-something years old, but he's 36 and has been fighting since he was 15 years old. That's a lot of training camps, plus all the big fights that he's had. It's a lot of wear and tear on your body. So, it's possible Canelo will show his age. It is very possible.Prediction: I'm going to go with Canelo by unanimous decision. I don't think he gets a KO. I mean, it's been a while since Canelo stopped somebody -- he's fought to eight decisions since knocking out Caleb Plant in 2021. Can Mbilli be stopped? Yeah, he can. But I'm going to go with a decision for Canelo.Lester Martinez, super middleweight interim champion; fought Mbilli in September 2025The matchupThis is a 50/50 fight. I don't have a winner picked because I know it's going to be a difficult fight for both, not just one fighter. When a boxer loses a fight, he can look even worse in his next one, or he can improve significantly. I think Canelo is one of those fighters who, when things don't go well in one fight, comes back much better in the next one, and then even better after that. So, I expect him to improve. He knows he must get better for this fight. But Mbilli's explosiveness and the constant pressure he applies from beginning to end are very important factors that work in his favor.How does Canelo win the fight?He has a tremendous amount of experience. Canelo knows how to do his job very well. He just needs to listen to his trainer, do what he does best and not get overconfident.I think using lateral movement will benefit him a lot in this fight. Canelo has scored a lot of knockouts by going to the body and then coming upstairs. His power punches are all powerful shots, and I think that punch is essential for him.How does Mbilli win the fight?I think Mbilli needs to stay true to his style and the way he has fought throughout his career. He needs to keep doing what he's been doing.In my fight with Mbilli, nothing surprised me because I already knew what he was like. I hadn't faced him before, but I had watched him and knew what to expect. Everything I expected happened -- his boxing style, his punching power. I think all his punches could trouble Canelo. One of Mbilli's strengths is his looping punches, especially his right hand.Prediction: A fight with either of them would benefit me. One is someone we all still consider the GOAT of boxing, and the other is an inevitable opponent -- it's a rematch everyone wants to see. So, a fight with either one would be good for me. But if I had the choice, I'd like Canelo to win so I can fight him first and then Mbilli.Al Bernstein, boxing commentator and member of the International Boxing Hall of FameThe matchupIt's kind of interesting. I mean, No. 1, the whole concept of the going ahead with the fight at this juncture is intriguing. Before you even get to the X's and O's, you have to say to yourself, will the atmosphere in Riyadh and everything surrounding this event affect either man? We have no idea. I don't know what the tension is like in that location, but you hope that that's not going to have an impact on either fighter. So that's the first part.The second part is that if all things are equal, it is a very fascinating match because here we have Canelo at a point in his career where we know he is slightly diminished from where he was. And I say "slightly" because he lost to Terence Crawford. It was a surprise in some ways because of Crawford coming up in weight, but obviously Canelo lost to a very, very, very good fighter.And now Canelo is taking on this aggressive, hellbent-for-leather guy that has created all these action fights. His fight with Lester Martinez was spectacular, very close. So the interesting thing to me is that Canelo might be taking on a guy who's right in the middle of his prime. But here's the funny thing: From a purely stylistic standpoint, this could be better for Canelo than some of the other people he's been fighting. Mbilli's style could walk him right into Canelo's wheelhouse, which is counterpunching.How does Canelo win the fight?To beat a fighter like Mbilli, you have to make him respect the pop of your punches. Canelo, unlike Martinez, is not a volume puncher. So if Mbilli doesn't get hurt at all, he could hustle and win most of the rounds just by being himself.Canelo is without any knockouts in five years against fighters we would expect him to stop, like he did many of those 168-pounders that he fought and some at 175, too. Can he do that to Mbilli, who obviously is a durable fighter?Mbilli is going to be there in front of you. And if you don't move, if you are not fleet afoot or showing the kind of movement needed, then you have to be able to repel him, to make him less anxious to attack. And that's the question. Can Canelo do that? It's an interesting conundrum.And the funny thing is, you could look at this fight and say, "Oh, it's the perfect guy for Canelo to fight." Or you could look at it and say, "Oh my God, they made the worst possible decision in wanting to fight Mbilli."Boxing fans with knowledge of the sport might look at this fight and say, wow, kind of intriguing. If we saw Canelo fighting this style of fighter in the past, we would say, OK, despite the fact that Mbilli is very good, it's not a bad matchup for Canelo. But we don't know two things. We don't know how much Canelo might be diminished. And we don't know whether Mbilli is a fighter that's going to step up. He's been very, very good. Is he going to reach another level?How does Mbilli win the fight?We know Canelo's punch resistance is really good, and Mbilli is not a one-punch kind of guy, for the most part. But his blows are powerful, and the accumulation of them is something. And that's the other thing: Mbilli's motor is almost unquestioned. But Canelo has had issues. The only time Canelo gets in trouble is not from one punch but from a combination of punches and fatigue. That was how Dmitry Bivol was able to make him look vulnerable toward the end. And even Crawford, to some degree. I don't think he ever had Canelo hurt, but Crawford made him look very vulnerable. And that's a danger against Mbilli, who has some pop on his punches and is a relentless attacker.Mbilli wins this fight by not getting hurt and being a volume puncher. He could win by decision, assuming the judges are fair to him, which we never know in a Canelo fight. And if Canelo is fatigued in the later rounds, the sheer volume of Mbilli could create a stoppage win for him. It's not impossible. I'm not making that my prediction, but it is possible.The thing about Mbilli is that, at his very best, his high work ethic and his motor make him a handful. It's the physical way he fights, with all that aggressiveness. So it's going to be interesting.Prediction: If the judges are doing their job correctly, I would reluctantly pick Mbilli to win, but only because there are so many unknown factors here. If you look at it from a boxing perspective and say, OK, who is more likely to win this match, in my opinion, it's probably Mbilli.
