EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsWe're almost at the midpoint of the NFL season, and the fantasy football trade deadline is a little more than a month away. With that in mind, we have seen enough football to highlight some realizations that differ from early-season opinions and expectations.Yes, there is still a lot of football to be played here, and players can make a quick turnaround if they see a jump in usage or take advantage of a positive matchup. I get that.But after seven weeks, we can identify the players (and one defensive unit) who have been better or worse than anticipated, and what you can expect going forward.Justin Jefferson is no longer a clear WR1I've often called coach Kevin O'Connell's offense one of the more "QB friendly" systems in the league. It's the play design and the defined throws. Scheme guys open. Isolate players in positive matchups. Take shots off play-action. There should be a feeling of tempo and rhythm.But after watching the Vikings this season -- with Kyler Murray under center -- there is still a genuine lack of identity in the pass game. And we are seeing it even more with Jefferson's declining production.Jefferson opened the season in Week 1 by dropping 31.2 points on the Green Bay Packers, in a game where Murray left early due to a concussion. Carson Wentz stepped in and Jefferson went on to catch two touchdowns.But in the three full games Jefferson has played with Murray, he's scoring 10.8 fantasy PPG. Plus, he's averaged 5.3 targets, with only two in the red zone during this three-game stretch. In fact, Jefferson has yet to post a game this season with double-digit targets, and he now plays in a low-volume throwing offense, as the Vikings have attempted only 164 passes this season (second fewest in the league).Now, I don't expect fantasy managers to give up on Jefferson. There's too much talent and upside despite the recent usage. Plus, Jefferson has some prime matchups over the next two weeks against Detroit and Buffalo, two defenses ranking in the bottom five versus wide receivers. But unless we see a big jump from Murray and the Minnesota pass game, it's fair to question if Jefferson can finish as a top-15 wide receiver by season's end.Blake Corum is more than just a bye-week fill-inI said the following early in the season on Corum: "Bench stash. Insurance play behind starter Kyren Williams. A running back with some value in deeper formats."But that's changed given Corum's recent usage and production in the Rams backfield.Corum, who saw a team-high 17 carries in the Week 7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, is scoring 15.8 fantasy PPG over his last three, with double-digit touches and at least one touchdown in each game. Corum has also caught six of seven targets during this stretch, while averaging 77.7 scrimmage yards per game.With the expectation that Williams remains the No. 1 in L.A., Corum's ceiling is somewhat capped. However, he is getting enough work to be played as a flex in 10- and 12-team leagues, with RB2 value in deeper formats. Plus, the upcoming schedule (LAC, @WSH, @ARI) creates more opportunities for Corum to produce weekly value ahead of the Rams' bye in Week 11.The Cincinnati Bengals are a solid starting D/STIf you were to ask me about the Cincy defense in previous seasons, I would 100% disagree with this take. You couldn't put the Bengals in the lineup with any confidence outside of an extremely friendly matchup (and even then, only in deeper leagues).But this year's defense? The team made some really strong offseason additions to this unit, one that is now scoring 8.0 fantasy PPG (fifth most in the league). The Bengals are also allowing 20.3 PPG this season (eighth fewest), with multiple sacks in every game played and at least one turnover forced in four of them.The trade for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II gave the Bengals an anchor. He's a game changer. Plus, the team added veterans Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe to build the front, with a secondary featuring coverage corners Dax Hill and DJ Turner II. There's talent here in defensive coordinator Al Golden's system. And with a positive upcoming schedule (TEN, @ATL, PIT, @WSH, NO, @CLE), the time is now to add a Bengals defense currently available in more than 55% of ESPN leagues.Garrett Wilson is a WR2 at bestWilson had the look of a clear-cut WR1 back in September, as he scored 19.1 fantasy PPG from Weeks 1-3, seeing nine targets per game with two touchdown grabs.Since then, Wilson has scored fewer than 10 points in three of the past four games, and his Week 5 game versus the Browns (23.4 fantasy points) is the only outlier. And the volume is rapidly declining here, too, as Wilson has six or fewer targets in three of the four games.The emergence of rookie wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. factors in here. Cooper, who missed time due to ankle injury, has scored at least 22 fantasy points in back-to-back games, with at least five targets and a touchdown in each. He's a powerful and explosive mover, and it's pretty clear the Jets are scheming for Cooper in the game plan.Wilson is still a highly talented receiver, one capable of breakout weeks. But given Cooper's quickly expanding role and an upcoming schedule featuring some tougher matchups (LV, @KC, BUF, @LAC, MIA), Wilson has dropped down in my ranks as a mid-to-lower-tier WR2.Chase Brown is no longer a lineup lockHeading into Week 8, Brown is scoring 12.5 fantasy PPG, but he's posted fewer than 10 points in three of his past four, and he hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. His single-game high this season -- 19.1 in Week 4 versus Jacksonville -- was boosted by 11 receptions on a day where he rushed for 10 yards on nine carries.Looking deeper at the tape and the numbers here, Brown's lack of rushing efficiency and explosive-play ability are major concerns. Brown is averaging only 3.4 YPC (33rd in the league), while his 7.3% explosive run rate is tied for 59th ... with Alvin Kamara. Not great. And Brown isn't breaking tackles at a high rate, averaging just 1.63 YPC after first contact (34th).Plus, the Bengals' No. 2, Samaje Perine, led the team in carries in Week 5 versus Miami (before the bye), and he was given an opportunity on the goal line last Sunday in the win over the Ravens, cashing in on a 1-yard score.With the lack of capable running backs, you can't really sit Brown in deeper formats. I get that. And the upcoming schedule should work in a Brown's favor based on the matchups (TEN, @ATL, PIT, @WSH). But at this point, you can't call Brown a must-start if you have other options to drop in the RB2 spot.
