EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsAlmost nothing in the world is more fun than a college football Saturday in which all the big games live up to their billing. In my Friday preview, I talked about three particularly big SEC games, three particularly big Big Ten games and a pair of Group of 6 games with huge implications. All eight of those games were decided by one score. The SEC games were decided by a combined seven points.Oklahoma pulled one of the biggest Red River upsets we've seen in a while. Georgia won in Tuscaloosa for the first time in 19 years. Nebraska nearly beat a defending national champ for the first time in 25 years. UCLA sent Oregon reeling. Kentucky both sent Lane Kiffin's LSU reeling and somehow won 35-34 with a game-winning 2-point conversion in OT for the second straight week. (Sometimes reruns are good.) Boise State beat its bogey team. North Dakota State finally lost as an FBS team. Mississippi Valley State pulled off a dramatic comeback for the second straight week.Week 6 had something for everyone, and it taught us quite a few lessons along the way. Here are my biggest takeaways.Texas isn't the No. 1 team in the countryFirst things first: It took a lot for Texas to lose Saturday. My postgame win expectancy measure -- which takes the predictive stats produced in a given game, tosses them into the air and says, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time" -- says that with the stats Oklahoma-Texas produced, the Longhorns would have won 93% of the time. They outgained the Sooners by 144 yards (and 1.9 per play), made bigger big plays, created nearly three times more tackles for loss, created more red zone opportunities and narrowly won the field position battle. To win, Oklahoma basically needed to score multiple defensive or special teams touchdowns and win the turnover margin by at least plus-2.Well, OU did those things. Dakoda Fields narrowly recovered a blocked punt before it went out of the back of the end zone for a safety, and after OU finally scored an offensive touchdown early in the fourth quarter, Peyton Bowen took a horribly ill-advised Arch Manning pass 42 yards for a pick-six. Manning made another baffling throw in the final minute, Courtland Guillory picked it off, and Tate Sandell nailed a 47-yard field goal at the buzzer to complete grand theft in broad daylight at the Texas State Fair.Texas' SP+ rating didn't change much after this one -- again, the Horns did the big things that usually win games -- but they were already down to sixth in SP+ thanks to a backsliding offense. And despite the defense allowing only 238 total yards (69 in the first half), UT fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. And because they still have games against Ole Miss and Mississippi State at home and a rising Missouri and LSU on the road, there's now a 50% chance they finish 9-3 or worse in the regular season, per SP+.We know the Horns' win over Ohio State is going to come in handy from a rsum perspective, but we don't yet know how the College Football Playoff committee will handle strength of schedule in the era of nine-game SEC schedules (and after an offseason of the SEC hounding them about it). At 9-3, there's a legit chance that Texas could miss the CFP for the second straight year and, like other recent "we're going all-in this year" teams -- Penn State in 2025, potentially Oregon in 2026 -- fall far short of their goals.Even in the era of a 12-team CFP, a surprising rivalry loss can threaten to derail your season. (With a 24-team CFP, not so much.) Texas still controls its destiny, and its defense is still excellent, but the offense is just not working as well as it was supposed to. The Horns are 61st in points per drive, and while that number has obviously been impacted by playing three excellent defenses (Ohio State, Tennessee, Oklahoma), this was the year everything was supposed to click into place.Instead, Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers are combining to average just 4.3 yards per carry (3.6 on Saturday), and Arch Manning's passing success rate* has fallen in every game this season. It was 44.4% against Ohio State, 42.9% against UTSA, 36.7% against Tennessee and 34.2% against Oklahoma. He made some gorgeous passes Saturday, including strikes of 42 and 41 yards to Cam Coleman. But he offset that with horrid, late-game decision making. Both picks were inexcusable, and he almost had another interception by getting careless on a throwaway.(* Success rate = how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth. It's an on-base percentage for football, and Arch isn't getting on base much.)Manning is now 44th nationally in Total QBR, eighth in the SEC. There are nine SEC teams with either zero or one conference loss, and going by Total QBR only Oklahoma and Tennessee have gotten worse quarterback play than Texas. The Horns are obviously still fine in the CFP hunt, and Manning did improve late in the 2025 regular season -- he's almost certainly capable of another rebound. But this isn't how things were supposed to go.Georgia and Alabama are both in great shapeIn the last 17 seasons, Georgia and Alabama have played each other five times in the regular season and seven times in the postseason. In the last five years, they've played each other twice in the same season twice. Because of that, this has become a defining, sign-of-the-times matchup for 2020s college football. And the main takeaway we got from Georgia's 20-17 win in wet and windy Tuscaloosa was that this might not be the last time these teams play in 2026.Georgia is the only remaining unbeaten team in the SEC, and among a crowded field of seven teams with one SEC loss, Alabama appears to have by far the highest upside (and has the best SP+ rating). Quarterback Keelon Russell was flustered and mistake-prone in front of by far the most hostile defense he has faced as Alabama's starter, and yet he was driving the Tide to at least tie the game late until a controversial (read: awful) pass interference no-call.Being both lucky and good is typically a pretty great combination. Georgia needed both adjectives to win Saturday. The Dawgs averaged 7.5 yards per play to Bama's 5.8, got a brilliant 189 rushing yards out of basically their third- and fourth-string running backs (Dwight Phillips Jr. and Bo Walker) and indeed flustered Russell, on and off, all game. Russell completed just 16 of 30 passes and took four sacks, one of which resulted in a fumble and the loss of a scoring opportunity.Georgia also benefited from some spectacular turnovers luck, however, recovering all five of the game's fumbles (four of which were theirs) and narrowly avoiding a costly interception thanks to a replay review. Throw in the ghastly pass interference no-call, and the team got what it needed to get over the line.But both teams looked the part of a contender. Georgia proved that its newfound big-play capabilities weren't just a card to play against lesser opponents; Stockton not only completed 18 of 22 passes overall but hit four completions of 20-plus yards to four players: London Humphreys (20-yard TD), Lawson Luckie (26-yarder), Craig Dandridge (30-yarder) and Jaden Reddell (53-yarder). Bama, meanwhile, was perhaps a bit unlucky not to win despite Russell's obvious growing pains.There are basically four tiers to the current CFP race. With the win, Georgia moved into the top tier, while Alabama still boasts solid odds in the second.Teams with a better-than 90% chance of reaching the CFP, per SP+: 4 (Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Indiana)Teams with between a 49% and 74% chance: 8 (Utah, Texas Tech, UCLA, Ohio State, Alabama, BYU, James Madison, Texas)Teams with between a 13% and 26% chance: 14Teams with between a 2% and 10% chance: 15With a friendly schedule (only two top-30 opponents remaining) and a mulligan to spend as the only SEC unbeaten, Georgia is in fantastic shape in both the SEC and CFP hunts. Alabama has a tougher row to hoe with trips to Tennessee and LSU and less margin for error, but the Tide have as much upside as anyone in the country. And if Russell's growth continues apace, they might be good enough to handle a couple of bad breaks and prevail the next time these heavyweights meet.The Big 12 race could still get really weirdI wrote on Friday that the Big 12 was hard to figure out because of its combination of three unbeaten and obvious contenders (Utah, Texas Tech and BYU, all unbeaten and between seventh and 11th in SP+) and a handful of one-loss teams that have looked awesome at least a couple of times.With Houston and Arizona both handling what seemed like tricky road tests with relative ease -- Houston thumped Kansas State 35-16, while Arizona hopped two time zones to the east and pounded West Virginia 52-31 -- and Oklahoma State eventually doing away with UCF, the list of secondary Big 12 contenders solidified itself quite a bit. Throwing in Baylor, with its surprisingly outstanding defense and 4-1 record, you basically have a four-way conference title race of sorts:Big 12 title odds, per SP+Utah 29.9%BYU 27.3%Texas Tech 25.7%4 secondary contenders (Arizona, Baylor, Houston, OSU) 16.7%Houston hosts Oklahoma State and visits Utah in the next two weeks; the Cougars' odds were hit hard by their narrow loss at Texas Tech, but they could play themselves right back into the race, especially if they keep looking as good as they did in Manhattan. OSU, meanwhile, has a mulligan to give and hosts Texas Tech in November. Arizona, which spent its mulligan in a loss to BYU, visits Texas Tech in three weeks, then hosts Utah two weeks later. Baylor is a projected favorite in its next four games before a ruthless closing stretch (at BYU, Texas Tech, at Houston) that will either make the Bears a contender or help them determine who is.With three teams in the SP+ top 11 and five more ranked 31st or higher, the Big 12 has produced high quality thus far. Its average SP+ rating (10.1) is far closer to the Big Ten's (10.8) than the ACC's (5.3). If the conference's current big three (especially Utah and BYU) keep playing as well as they have been, maybe they stay ahead of the pack. But Tech has looked vulnerable on both sides of the ball, Utah's defense got hit harder than expected by Kansas on Saturday night, and BYU's offense is banged up and more reliant on bursts than consistency. The Holy War (BYU at Utah) in Week 10 is going to be epic regardless, but this race could still have quite a few twists and turns to it.Will Stein is a brave dude (and Lane Kiffin isn't?)Kentucky's current run is why the college football regular season is so much fun to follow and why the sport's world-building is unmatched. If you were to force me to bet my life savings on what record Will Stein's Wildcats will have at the end of the regular season -- and thank you for not doing that -- I'd probably go with 8-4.According to the postgame win expectancy measure I mentioned above, based on the stats each game produced there was only about a 10% chance of Kentucky beating both South Carolina and LSU in the last two weeks, and there was a 47% chance of them going 0-2. A combination of resilience, timely playmaking, good bounces and some incredible playcalling on 2-point conversions, they indeed won both games to move to 5-1 overall.But because the Wildcats' paths to victory in these games weren't particularly sustainable, they remain only 47th in SP+. They're projected favorites in only one more regular-season game, and while I think they'll win more than that, it's going to be a spectacularly uphill climb trying to keep this winning streak going.Still, 8-4 would be their best season in five years and a healthy step forward for the program. It won't necessarily make them a major national conversation topic in December, but for now they're one of the most delightful stories in the sport. They frustrated the hell out of Lane Kiffin's LSU on Saturday night in Lexington, and in the end, Stein made Kiffin blink.With his Tigers facing a fourth-and-1 from their own 43 with 1:46 remaining, up 27-24, Kiffin, the face of the analytics-forward, fourth-down movement in the 2020s, thought long and hard about going for it and trying to seal the win. LSU had already converted on a pair of third-and-1s on the day. But after trying and failing to draw the Wildcats offside, Kiffin called time out and elected to punt. And Kentucky proceeded to drive 67 yards in 85 seconds to kick a game-tying field goal and force overtime. The Wildcats won the toss in OT, got the ball second and, after getting lucky not to suffer a false-start penalty, won the game with a 2-point conversion."You gotta play to win," Stein said after the game. He evidently pressured Kiffin into forgetting that. And for the moment, he has more wins than Kiffin.Nebraska and UCLA are good (but we'll see if it's more than that)Heading into Saturday, I was excited that both Nebraska and UCLA were playing high-level opponents because it meant I didn't have to figure out whether their strong performances against mostly weak schedules were signs of awesomeness or mirages. Indiana (against the Huskers) and Oregon (against UCLA) would tell us how seriously we need to be taking these two teams.For both teams, the results were exciting but inconclusive. Nebraska led Indiana 17-6 in the fourth quarter before a pair of defensive breakdowns (one bad and one epic) let the Hoosiers off the hook and allowed the defending national champs to extend their winning streak to 22 games. Still, the Huskers showed major promise in dominating Indiana's offensive line -- IU's Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. averaged just 2.4 yards per carry, and Josh Hoover took two sacks -- and holding the Hoosiers to just a 31.8% success rate. (IU's success rate for the season: 49.0%.)UCLA, meanwhile, certainly benefited from Dante Moore's absence in Eugene but forced replacement Dylan Raiola into a nightmarish Saturday afternoon and generated just enough offense to pull a 17-15 upset. The Bruins dominated Oregon's offensive line, holding Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. to 3.7 yards per carry and harassing Raiola into a sack and two picks. Bruins QB Nico Iamaleava was super shaky before getting hurt, and backup Ty Dieffenbach was at least able to avoid disaster, but I'm still guessing the Bruins' passing game becomes an issue at some point.Nebraska fell from 12th to 14th in SP+, while UCLA rose from 21st to 18th, but both reinforced their status as potential top-20 caliber teams. And if you're top-20 caliber in one of the Big 2 conferences, you're a CFP contender.The hot seat is fluidPenn State's collapse last season -- and the school's subsequent firing of James Franklin (which has in no way made it a better program just yet) -- was linear in a way that most hot-seat situations aren't. Sometimes a team just face-plants, and it's all over. Usually, there are a series of ups and downs and potential rebounds and eventual collapses.In other words, you probably shouldn't get too comfortable just yet, Shane Beamer. South Carolina put on a pretty incredible show Saturday, going to Gainesville and handing Florida its second straight pounding. After three consecutive losses -- two gut-wrenching blown leads and tight defeats sandwiching a blowout loss to Alabama -- the Gamecocks look sprightly again, having jumped from 50th to 37th in SP+. Four of their last six games are projected within one score, and they're now up to a 61% chance of bowl eligibility, which isn't amazing (and isn't guaranteed to save Beamer's job) but is a step in the right direction.Unfortunately, I was saying remarkably similar things about Florida State a week ago. The Seminoles blew out Virginia with surprising ease and jumped from 53rd to 36th in SP+. They even went up early on Louisville on Friday night. But with just a smidgen of adversity -- in this case, a failed fourth-and-goal attempt -- they imploded. Louisville finished the game on a 44-6 run, and FSU is back to 54th in SP+ with a trip to Miami on deck. Beamer and USC's Lincoln Riley (against Penn State) were able to ease some pressure with happy Saturday performances. But that happiness only lasts until the next game kicks off.New Mexico is the best team in the Group of 6We got a shake-up atop the G6 landscape Saturday, and we nearly got an even bigger one. UNLV's funky 13-7 win over North Dakota State, which featured some healthy turnovers luck and just 13 total offensive points, knocked the Bison down a few pegs, while both James Madison (at Georgia Southern Panthers) and Boise State (at Fresno State) had to go the distance to fend off upset bids on the road. These struggles benefited a team with a pretty well-timed bye.There are currently eight G6 teams in the SP+ top 60:29. New Mexico (4-1)40. James Madison (6-0)42. Boise State (5-1)43. North Dakota State (5-1)48. Memphis (5-1)49. Liberty (5-1)51. Oregon State (4-2)58. Fresno State (4-2)Granted, New Mexico's case for hosting "College GameDay" in two weeks when North Dakota State comes to town might have taken a hit with NDSU's loss -- they should still go! -- and JMU still has strong odds of reaching 13-0 (which would almost guarantee the CFP bid). But Jason Eck's Lobos appear to be the best team in the G6 universe. They're projected favorites in every remaining regular-season game, and only the NDSU game (UNM by 6.2) is projected to be within 14 points. They're in great shape.This week in SP+The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)Moving upHere are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:Bowling Green: up 5.3 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 132nd to 127th)Ole Miss: up 4.9 points (from 35th to 16th)Buffalo: up 4.8 points (from 128th to 123rd)Western Kentucky: up 4.7 points (from 126th to 117th)Northwestern: up 4.3 points (from 33rd to 17th)Purdue: up 3.9 points (from 81st to 62nd)Arizona State: up 3.6 points (from 69th to 59th)Western Michigan: up 3.6 points (from 98th to 88th)Ohio: up 3.4 points (from 106th to 101st)BYU: up 3.2 points (from 14th to 11th)SP+ was struggling to trust Ole Miss through four games because the defense just wasn't, well, trustworthy. But overachieving against projections by 31.5 points, as the Rebels did against Vanderbilt -- by 20.8 on offense and 10.7 on defense -- is a good way to earn faith back. The Rebels still have four projected one-score games to go down the stretch (and are projected two-score underdogs against Georgia), so they still have work to do to end up in the CFP. But they were phenomenal Saturday.Moving downHere are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:Florida State: down 5.3 points (from 36th to 54th)UCF: down 4.3 points (from 49th to 57th)Maryland: down 4.2 points (from 61st to 81st)Pitt: down 4.2 points (from 18th to 36th)Minnesota: down 4.0 points (from 53rd to 60th)Vanderbilt: down 3.9 points (from 57th to 65th)Alabama: down 3.7 points (from sixth to eighth)Washington: down 3.6 points (from 41st to 52nd)Georgia: down 3.5 points (from first to second)Toledo: down 3.4 points (from 67th to 82nd)Aside from the general hilarity of Georgia and Alabama both falling in the ratings after a great Saturday night game -- my best explanation is that both offenses had been nearly perfect, and their ratings fell after the first signs of imperfection -- the most noteworthy team is at the top. After a blowout of Virginia, Florida State went up 14-0 on Louisville and had a fourth-and-goal at the 2 to go up three TDs. They failed, Louisville's Isaac Brown took the next snap 97 yards for a TD, and the Cardinals damn near won every play from there in a 44-20 win. FSU's rebound under Mike Norvell lasted about five quarters.My 10 favorite games of the weekend1. Oklahoma 27, No. 1 Texas 24; 2. Kentucky 35, No. 10 LSU 34 (OT); 3. No. 2 Georgia 20, No. 6 Alabama 17. Last year, a full 50% of the SEC's conference games were decided by one score last season, a pretty ridiculous number compared to the other power conferences. This year, they've slipped: Only 11 of 26 SEC games (42%) have been one-score affairs. But four of seven went the distance Saturday, including all three of the top-10 marquee games. That's solid work.4. Division III: No. 2 Wheaton 13, No. 1 North Central 10. The Division III game of the season was a slobber-knocker. In front of an overflowing crowd of 7,127 at Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium, Wheaton somehow led this battle of offensive juggernauts by a 2-0 margin late in the third quarter, but two long drives gave North Central a 10-2 lead.Wheaton's Matt Crider tied the game with a rushing TD and 2-point conversion, and the Thunder got a shocking late chance to win after Zeke Harris picked off a deflected pass. Caleb Ryan hit an 18-yard field goal with five seconds left, and Wheaton pulled one over on its mighty crosstown rival for the first time this decade.5. FCS: Mississippi Valley State 38, Texas Southern 34. In the last 14 years, MVSU had only once won two games in a row. The Delta Devils have now won two straight with enormous comebacks. After coming back from 24 down to shock Prairie View A&M last week, they erased a 17-point deficit with a 24-3 fourth-quarter run capped by Josh Brown's 16-yard score in the final minute. Hell yeah, crazy win probability charts.6. Division II: No. 19 Michigan Tech 41, No. 6 Grand Valley State 35. SP+ had this one forecasted as a comfortable GVSU win. Tech had other ideas. GVSU twice took the lead in the fourth quarter, but the Huskies responded both times. An Alex Bueno-to-Jake Rueff TD sent the game to OT, and after a fumble wrecked a fourth-down attempt for the visiting Lakers, Bueno's short-yardage plunge sealed the upset.7. No. 7 Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. After Anthony Colandrea's 39-yard TD run gave Nebraska a 17-6 lead with 12:01 left, I texted a buddy: "OK, yeah, Nebraska's officially good." Two long Nick Marsh TDs later, IU had survived. Sorry, Huskers.8. NAIA: Union Commonwealth 28, Point 27. Two winless teams both understood how big this win opportunity was. Point took a 20-7 lead thanks to a 75-yard TD pass and a pick-six and was driving to seal the game, but Chris Bradley took an interception 99 yards to keep Union alive, and Qua Powell scored the winning TD with 21 seconds left.9. Illinois 38, Michigan State 37 (OT). Illinois took an early 17-0 lead and still led by 14 midway through the fourth quarter. But touchdowns from Fredrick Moore and Jaziun Patterson unexpectedly forced overtime, and while both teams quickly scored on their OT possessions, State went for two points and the win. The pass attempt failed.10. UTSA 31, South Florida 24. Magic in the Alamodome: UTSA trailed for most of the first half but took control with a 13-0 run before USF's D.J. Crowther gave USF the Bulls the lead with 1:56 left. Too much time. Owen McCown drove UTSA 74 yards, and A'Marion Peterson scored the game winner with 15 seconds remaining.11. Louisiana Tech 32, Louisiana 31. I had high hopes for this revived rivalry, and they were exceeded. Louisiana took a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter, but Blake Baker ran for one TD, then threw for another with 46 seconds left, and after the Cajuns barely missed on a deep shot, Tech's Jordan McRae sealed the win with an interception.12. FCS: NC A&T 30, New Hampshire 27 (OT). Who doesn't love a redemption story? Trailing 27-21 on the final play of regulation, A&T tied the game with a 19-yard touchdown pass from Kevin White to Elijah Kennedy, but Asher Holland missed the PAT. The freshman got a second chance at the win in OT, however, and knocked in a 34-yarder.13. NAIA: Simpson 36, Southern Oregon 35. A year after going 0-10, Simpson is 3-3 thanks in part to this 12-point fourth-quarter comeback. Ya'j Vance scrambled for a 13-yard score as time expired, and the Red Hawks pulled an upset.14. No. 21 UCLA 17, No. 13 Oregon 15. A festival of quarterback injuries and struggles? Yes. A physical, gripping, down-to-the-wire game decided by a 2-point stuff with 2:16 left? Also yes.15. North Carolina 21, No. 25 Pitt 17. Obviously Mason Heintschel's injury dampened this one, but Holden Geriner had Pitt in position to remain unbeaten until Shamar Easter's 75-yard catch-and-run and a series of late stops won it for UNC.16. Division III: No. 7 UW-River Falls 34, UW-Oshkosh 31 (OT). The defending Division III champs needed more than 60 minutes to take down Demir Ashiru and Oshkosh, tying the game with three minutes left, picking off a pass to force OT, then blocking one field goal and making another to survive.17. Army 20, Tulane 17. The game was basically in a holding pattern until the fourth quarter, then ignited: Tulane took a 17-10 lead with a 39-yard TD pass, Army responded 50 seconds later with a 58-yard Cale Hellums run, and Dawson Jones knocked in the game winner at the buzzer.18. FCS: Florida A&M 28, Alabama State 27. FAMU came up with a particularly fun way to overcome a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit: LONG BOMBS! Armond Parker hit Armand Burris for touchdown passes of 88 yards (with 11:13 left) and 89 yards (with 6:03 left), and Isiah Davis blocked a field goal with 12 seconds left for the win.19. Division II: East Central 58, Arkansas Tech 56. The wildest track meet of the weekend. East Central led by double digits four times, but four Tracy Daniels TDs spurred comeback after comeback. Tech took its first lead with 94 seconds left, but Gabriel Ogura's field goal with 0:10 remaining made the difference.20. South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49. You knew I was going to squeeze the highest-scoring FBS game of the year to date onto the list.
