EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsBoth teams rebounded from a tough Week 1 to look more like themselves last week.Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns and recorded a 76 QBR as the Los Angeles Rams beat the New York Giants last week -- even without Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett. And Aaron Donald made his presence felt on defense, with a 30% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle that ranked sixth best at the position in Week 2. Even when not at full strength, this Rams team is mighty dangerous.And Denver showed that its disjointed Week 1 loss to Kansas City might have been a fluke by beating Jacksonville 20-13. The critical matchup here, of course, is the Rams offense against the vaunted Broncos defense.Will Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss fare better against Davante Adams than the Giants secondary did (my take: almost unequivocally, yes). And is the Rams running game where it has the advantage in this contest, against a Broncos unit that ranks last (!) in EPA allowed per opponent designed run?Betting outlookMy first guess was that, at 2.5-point favorites, the market was essentially writing off the Rams' Week 1 loss as a jet lag-inspired fluke. But then I checked ESPN's Football Power Index, and it's even more bullish on Los Angeles in this contest, favoring the Rams by 3.9 points.Part of that is because the Broncos, despite coming oh-so-close to the Super Bowl last year, didn't get that much respect from the model in the preseason (which means the betting market didn't give that much respect to Denver, either, since FPI's preseason ratings are largely driven by the betting market).Plus, while both of these teams suffered a blowout loss in Week 1, they are not equal: FPI believes the Rams lost to the best team in football (in San Francisco) while the Broncos were beaten by the fifth-best team in the Chiefs, who the model considers almost a field goal worse than the 49ers.I'm not betting the spread here, but if I were I would lean Los Angeles.Notable player props, betsNote: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.Bo Nix rushing yards UNDER 17.5 (-111)Ben Solak: Only one scramble through two games for Nix in 2026, which is notable, as Nix was scrambling 2.3 times per game in 2025. It doesn't seem to be related to the ankle injury -- he's moving just fine -- so my theory is that it's related to the new Davis Webb offensive approach. Either the Broncos brass has stressed upon him the importance of putting the ball in play, or Nix is more comfortable with the playcalls as they're given to him and is less likely to cut bait to tuck and go.Whatever it is, I'll take his under on his rushing yards against the Rams. With the litany of RB injuries the Broncos have, I think the Rams will be willing to play Nix's keeps on read-option a little more aggressively. I also expect the Rams to be a heavy zone team in this game despite the shift to man coverage in Week 2. Nix has historically been a much shakier passer against zone than man coverage. Zone coverage allows defenders to keep their eyes on scrambling quarterbacks, which limits yardage on the hoof.Jaylen Waddle receiving yards OVER 55.5 (-113)Pam Maldonado: Waddle looks like Denver's clearest path to attack this Rams defense. Last week at home, Waddle drew 10 targets, caught eight passes and accounted for more than half of the team's air yards. This matchup fits that setup. The Rams have leaned heavily on man coverage. Waddle's speed makes him dangerous when defenders have to chase him across the field. Denver can also use quick throws to neutralize the Rams' pressure and get Waddle the ball in space. One explosive catch, paired with similar volume, can comfortably take him over his yardage prop.Terrance Ferguson 7-plus receptions (+552)Walder: I was all the way in on Ferguson in fantasy in the preseason. And whatever chips I have left to push I'm sending in. The theory before the year was that if Puka Nacua or Davante Adams were out and if Ferguson could move past Colby Parkinson on the depth chart (or the Rams play enough two-tight end sets for it to not matter) then he would become the second-best receiving option on a lucrative offense. It was a good theory, but a few weeks ago it was just that: a theory. Now: we've seen it in action. Last week with Nacua out, Ferguson caught six passes, including a touchdown. I don't see any reason why the role should shrink assuming Nacua is out again. The opportunity is ripe for a right-tail, high-upside bet to hit.
