EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsFor the majority of fantasy baseball managers, an exciting, competitive season has nearly reached its apex. Hopefully, you're still in the hunt for a championship, and will emerge victorious. (Wishing you the best of luck in your quest!)But for managers in dynasty and keeper leagues, Major League Baseball's 2026-27 offseason might prove to be its most challenging in over a generation.Unfortunately, MLB's current labor agreement expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET and, while its owners and Players Association have long been negotiating a new deal, the sides aren't reportedly close on terms. To spare you the gory details, there's a very real possibility of a work stoppage once that deadline has passed.That's not necessarily a catastrophe! Many of us might have already forgotten, but MLB endured a work stoppage the last time the labor agreement expired following the 2021 season -- one that lasted 99 days and delayed the start of the 2022 campaign by a week. Nevertheless, the league still played a full, 162-game schedule and fantasy leagues drafted and proceeded without a hitch. It's entirely possible that we'll see progress over the coming weeks and 2027 won't even endure a stoppage of that length.However, it's also possible that the 2027 season will be interrupted, which would have ramifications across all fantasy baseball leagues, but especially those dynasties/keepers. If you're interested in more of the specifics on a prospective lockout and the issues under discussion, ESPN's Jeff Passan recently wrote this excellent primer on the topic.As it pertains to us fantasy managers, we're focused on properly planning our leagues and dynasty/keeper rosters around any prospective stoppage. What follows are many of the things to keep in mind, and potentially discuss with your fellow league mates, as we head into the offseason.Make a draft day contingency planOur memories of that 2021-22 lockout might be understandably hazy, but the most important fantasy takeaway was that the urgency with which MLB's owners and MLBPA came to an agreement dramatically shrunk the 2022 preseason -- spring training on the field, draft planning for us. MLB postponed the entire opening week's games, rescheduling some of them throughout the regular season and adding the rest as a three-day extension at year's end.The two sides reached agreement on Thursday, March 10. The 2022 season began exactly four weeks later, on Thursday, April 7. Fantasy commissioners who hadn't been discussing draft contingencies with their league, especially those who prefer live drafts, might have had more difficulty getting everyone on the same page on limited notice.Beginning those conversations now -- i.e. if we need to draft closer to April, or an agreement isn't reached until April or later, how does everyone's schedule look? -- will prove to be advantageous. That's especially true in a year where Easter falls on the first Sunday of the currently scheduled regular season, March 28.To that end, the way the 2027 schedule currently proceeds, MLB could adopt a similar approach if the lockout's result mirrors 2022 -- in other words, postponing the opening week. Of the 30 series currently scheduled for that time, 20 involve divisional rivals, which are easier to reschedule due to proximity and additional visits to those cities later in the year (doubleheaders are a common solution).Only the Atlanta Braves, Athletics, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers are scheduled to play entirely outside their division during Opening Week -- all games that would be tougher to easily reschedule, though it can certainly be done! Again, a one-week delay might prove to be more challenging next season than in 2022, as Easter would then fall on the final weekend directly preceding Opening Day.Now's the time to experimentIn the event any lockout is lengthy and, for example, results in a shortened 2027 akin to the 60-game, COVID-shortened 2020, fantasy leagues can and should consider other creative formats.A shortened season like in 2020, which took place across just 10 weeks, makes head-to-head play more challenging. If that's not appealing to you, why not try a rotisserie/categories league over a shorter-length season? Or, if you're currently in a rotisserie/categories league and have never given head-to-head play a try, why not test it out for 2027?Alleviate the frustration of lost games by experimenting with a creative fantasy baseball format. Maybe this is the year to try an old-school rotisserie league, a "most home runs" format. Maybe now's the time for a "Stink"-ball league, where the worst stats are your goal. Anyone up for a Vampire league? In my longstanding simulation league -- a 30-teamer that mirrors MLB play -- we used ZiPS projections to expand the 60-game schedule out to a full 162.There's no better time to experiment than in an unusual year.Pitching may play differentlyAnother drawback to the 2022 delay was the impact upon pitching workloads. MLB afforded teams an expanded, 28-man roster for the season's first 24 days. As a result, only 18 pitchers managed as many as 100 pitches in any start during that time -- all but three of which came after the season's first 14 days.By comparison, in 2026, 46 starters reached the 100-pitch threshold over the season's first 24 days, with 21 of those occurring during the first two weeks. (Taj Bradley did it twice in the first two weeks!) Yes, 2022 had some slight, lingering workload issues dating back to the COVID-shortened 2020 (which certainly influenced those numbers), but the upshot is that any shortening of MLB's spring training will shorten the time starting pitchers have to reach full-time workloads in advance of Opening Day.Fantasy managers in quality starts leagues might be the most affected, and relief pitchers could take on additional weight over the season's opening weeks. In 2022, 18 of the top 60 pitchers in terms of fantasy points in April were relievers. Across an equal number of days (24) to start 2026, relievers comprised only 11 of the top 60.Unbalanced schedule headaches?Should a lockout result in actual game cancellations and presumably cost us (primarily) games at the front of the schedule, a few teams could be more dramatically affected than others. The Athletics, over the first 40 days, are currently tabbed to play eight more road (22) than home (14) games, which is especially relevant to our planning being that they'll once again call one of the most hitter-friendly environments -- Sacramento's Sutter Health Park -- their home.The Athletics are also scheduled for 10 more road than home games over the season's first 25 days, matching the St. Louis Cardinals for the widest such divide. Over those same opening 25 days, the Seattle Mariners are set for 10 more home than road games, which is significant since they play at T-Mobile Park -- an extreme pitcher-friendly venue. The Kansas City Royals are due to play nine more home than road games over those same 25 days.A lengthy lockout might not only mean imbalanced schedules. It could have teams scheduled for an unequal amount of home games.Using my own raw 2027 projections to determine top- and bottom-10 teams -- the lists aren't far removed from their 2026 standings -- the New York Mets have a ridiculously soft early schedule, with 19 games against bottom-10 opponents and none against top-10s. Any loss of those games will mean a significantly more challenging full-season schedule than what they currently slated to face. Conversely, the Washington Nationals are set to play 22 times against top-10 opponents over their first 34 games, with only three games against bottom-10 squads.(Note that MLB could scrap its current 2027 schedule entirely, and release a new one spanning whatever length is decided, whenever there's a labor agreement. The above only considers what happens if games are outright canceled and not rescheduled.)A potential silver lining?Not all of the fallout of a lengthy labor stoppage would be negative. A possible benefit of any lockout-shortened or delayed 2027 schedule is that players currently facing injury questions would gain additional time to heal. This was also the case during the COVID-shortened 2020, when the late-July start to the season granted recovering players time to get healthy and have uninterrupted years.Here's a list of some of the prominent fantasy players whose value stands to benefit with a lengthier delay to the start of 2027:Byron Buxton: Hip surgery, could be limited in FebruaryRafael Devers: Core muscle surgery, could be limited in FebruaryCade Horton: April Tommy John surgery, likely 12-14 month timetablePablo Lopez: February Tommy John surgery, likely 12-14 month timetableRyan Pepiot: May hip surgery, could be limited in FebruaryQuinn Priester: June thoracic outlet surgery, likely 8-10 month timetableCole Ragans: July InternalBrace surgery, likely 10-12 month timetableSpencer Schwellenbach: Elbow surgery, return timetable TBDTyler Soderstrom: Hip surgery, could be limited in February/MarchBrandon Woodruff: Shoulder issue, could be limited in February/MarchIn any event, here's hoping things settle and 2027 goes off entirely without a hitch. It would be the best result for us all, fantasy baseball players and fans alike.
