EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsValue is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: finding betting value.Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, favorite defensive props and the top game to bet in Week 1.Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.Jump to:Bowen's Game of the Week | Solak's plays | Walder's propsBowen's Game of the WeekCincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2.5, 46.5)1 p.m. ET on CBS, Reliant Stadium, HoustonThis line has fluctuated but at -2.5, I am all-in. Would I feel the same at -3? I wouldn't love it, but I'd be willing to bet Houston at home in a bounce-back game after the Week 1 loss to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Let's get into what to look for on both sides of the ball, and we'll finish with some props bets to play.When Houston has the ball: Houston spent the offseason working on its run game, trading for David Montgomery and adding to the offensive front. And we saw a dedicated effort to run the football in Week 1, as Montgomery had 20 carries, with Woody Marks chipping in with nine. Now, was it super efficient? No. Montgomery averaged just 3.0 YPC, and the Texans registered a run block win rate of 74% (17th in the league). But it's clear that Houston wants the run game to be a foundational element of its offense. This can boost the passing opportunities for quarterback C.J. Stroud, who will see a Bengals defense featuring a rebuilt front anchored by defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II and an underrated secondary that can mix both zone and man looks. I would look for play-action concepts (which mirror the run game) to attack the Bengals' two-deep zone shells (in-breakers to Nico Collins, if he plays) while also scheming up some shot plays. I truly think Houston looks to control the tempo on offense in this one, but let's keep an eye on third downs because the Texans need to beat man coverage from the Bengals there.When Cincinnati has the ball: I want to see this matchup against the Texans' defense. Though the Bengals looked flat in a Week 1 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Joe Burrow finished with 254 yards passing, and Ja'Marr Chase had two receptions for 12 yards), they create conflict because of scheme and talent. The Texans have been a zone-heavy defense under DeMeco Ryans, but they will mix in man coverage (based on game situations), which creates must-see TV when corners Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter match against Chase and Tee Higgins. Tight end Mike Gesicki (78 yards receiving in Week 1) could find room to operate against Houston's split-safety and single-high zone schemes to attack the voids there. But, my main question is will the Bengals' offensive line keep the pocket firm for Burrow and generate movement up front in the run game? The Bengals held a pass block win rate of 53.8% in Week 1 against the Bucs (13th in the league), while Chase Brown averaged only 3.5 YPC. It's a different matchup this week against Houston edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Burrow will need to hit some explosive play throws to win this one.Leans: Texans -2.5 (-118), Texans moneyline (-142), Over 46.5 (-105)Now, let's get to some prop bets ...Ja'Marr Chase receptions OVER 6.5 (-109)I expect a dedicated effort to get Chase the ball after he caught only two of four targets in the Week 1 win over the Bucs -- screens, unders and quicks that cater to Chase's explosive catch-and-run ability. Look for Chase to be involved early in this game plan.Mike Gesicki anytime TD (+280)Gesicki caught a Week 1 touchdown on a schemed throw to beat man coverage. Plus, the Bengals can set up Gesicki on zone beaters in the high red zone (seams, corners) to counter the Houston defensive tendencies.Solak's playsGreen Bay Packers -3.5 (-112) at New York JetsI'm grabbing a quick buy-low spot on the Packers, who were much better Sunday than the box score would indicate. The Minnesota Vikings scored 14 late points on defensive takeaways deep in Green Bay territory in their 39-22 victory. But the Packers had a better success rate (38.8%) than the Vikings (34.5%) and struggled only in situational spots. They were 3-for-12 on third down. On four red zone trips, they scored only one touchdown and one field goal. Those are the little execution problems that hurt a box score.Going from facing a Brian Flores-coached Vikings defense to the Jets should make things far easier. Matt LaFleur has experience facing Aaron Glenn from when Glenn was the defensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions and generally has found success (46% offensive success rate, 0.04 EPA per play, 2.2 points per drive).I thought about taking the Packers' team total, currently priced at 23.5 and juiced -135 to the over. I think the Jets' offense will be a functional group this season, but they need to run the ball and play clock control to win games against superior opponents -- and that might limit the Packers' total drives. As such, I'll go instead for the full-game spread at -3.5. I would play this no further than -120.Tennessee Titans team total UNDER 15.5 (-105)The Titans' offensive operation was the worst I saw in Week 1: play designs that were dead in the water, offensive linemen uncertain of their assignments, easy drops and bad routes from receivers and poor accuracy and timing from Cam Ward at quarterback. It's tough to find anything to hang their hat on from a 23-10 loss to the Jets.It's worth remarking that Brian Daboll's offenses have been poor in Week 1 -- six, six and and zero points in the three seasons previous -- and then stronger in Week 2. But against this Philadelphia Eagles defense, it's tough to have much faith. Philadelphia's defensive front looked as deep and disruptive as ever against an average Washington Commanders front, and the Titans are comfortably one of the eight worst lines in football. Though defensive back Cooper DeJean was banged up in the Week 1 game and sat out practice Wednesday, the Eagles' outside corner duo of Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen still poses a huge problem for the Titans' ability to create explosive plays through the air.The talent difference here feels simply insurmountable. The Titans will need defensive takeaways or big special teams outputs to get into scoring range. I don't see them getting enough. I would play this up to -115.New England Patriots -5.5 (-105) vs. Pittsburgh SteelersThe past four defenses the Patriots have faced are as follows: Seattle Seahawks (Week 1), Seahawks (Super Bowl), Denver Broncos (AFC Championship Game), Houston Texans (AFC divisional round). Even their wild-card opponent had a near-elite defense (Los Angeles Chargers). We are finally at a point at which we can buy low on the Patriots against an imperfect defense.The Pittsburgh Steelers' defense was hardly tested in Week 1 against the Cooper Rush-led Atlanta Falcons. Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense -- especially with TreVeyon Henderson returning from a right ankle injury -- represent a far stiffer test. Even though wide receiver A.J. Brown is on injured reserve because of an ankle injury, the Patriots have had a long week since last Wednesday to prepare for his absence. Their wide receiver room, featuring Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins, is plenty deep enough.On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's offense was dreadful against a Falcons defense that was low in my power ratings to start the season. The Steelers' 31.4% success rate was the worst of all offenses in Week 1, and their 4.1 yards per play was fourth worst. There were some drops and procedural issues that made the performance look worse than it was, but it wasn't a good outing. I like the Patriots' corners and their ability to press Pittsburgh's receivers, forcing Aaron Rodgers into low-percentage prayers while the elite defensive tackle duo of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore generate TFLs and sacks.This number has been rising throughout the week. I wouldn't play -5.5 at anything past -110.Lamar Jackson rushing yards UNDER 39.5 (-112)Jackson's rushing under was a common bet for us throughout last season, when it was clear that the Ravens' quarterback was not healthy. He is healthy this season, as 16-yard and 19-yard scrambles in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts indicate. Jackson ended the day with 40 rushing yards on seven carries (after losing three yards on three kneels).New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle put Jackson under center more than Todd Monken and Greg Roman had previously. Under-center alignments limit the opportunity for designed QB run plays, like read-options. Jackson's lone designed carry against the Colts was a second-and-goal play from the 5-yard line. Though Jackson is still dangerous on a scramble, if he's only going to get designed carries in short-yardage or goal-line situations, his potential for high-yardage days will be capped.I expect the New Orleans Saints and Brandon Staley's zone-heavy defense to keep much better eyes on Jackson in the scramble drill than the Colts' man-heavy approach afforded. I'll also be looking for an under on Jackson's longest rush when that line posts, but I'd take this number down to 37.5.Walder's prop betsNote: More defensive props will be added as odds become availableDefensive playsChicago Bears D/ST anytime touchdown (+750)One medium good game from Carson Wentz should not make us forget about the fact that he is still Carson Wentz, a QB plenty prone to mistakes. Certainly my model hasn't, which is one reason why it likes Chicago's defense -- which is probably not a great unit overall -- or its special teams' chances to return a touchdown. The fact that the Bears have a prolific offense and are more likely to be in the lead in this game -- thus forcing the Minnesota Vikings to put the ball in Wentz's hands -- helps. I'd bet this down to +700.Carolina Panthers D/ST anytime touchdown (+700)As of this writing, we don't know who the Atlanta Falcons' quarterback will be Sunday. Guess what? They're all great options ... for the Panthers' defense. We're betting on a defensive or special teams score against:A banged-up Cooper Rush orA banged-up Tua Tagovailoa orMichael Penix Jr., in his first start back after ACL surgery, orJack StrandNo matter what we think of the Panthers' defense, we should take this bet at +700. I would bet it down to +640.Offensive playsAaron Rodgers pass attempts UNDER 35.5 (-124)That the Pittsburgh Steelers were the No. 1 team in pass rate over expectation in Week 1, per NFL Next Gen Stats, was arguably more of an upset than the Los Angeles Chargers losing to the Arizona Cardinals. Will it continue? I'm willing to bet it won't, at least for this week. Mike McCarthy has had both pass-leaning and run-leaning teams in the past, but he also doesn't have a particularly good quarterback right now, so it hardly seems to make sense that they would keep up the pattern. That's why I'm agreeing with my pass attempts model, which thinks this line is too high for Rodgers, even heading into a game in which the Steelers are underdogs and will have to keep up with the New England Patriots' offense. I would bet this down to -150.Rhamondre Stevenson receptions OVER 2.5 (-153)The entire league ran zone coverage at a higher rate in Week 1 than in any season in our dataset (since 2017), but no team epitomized that more than the Steelers. Under coordinator Patrick Graham, the Steelers ran zone 89% of the time. Why does that matter for this bet? Since 2023, running backs have caught passes on man-coverage plays 8% of the time but 15% of the time against zone. That massive disparity plays into our hands here with Stevenson facing the Steelers. I opted for the conservative option at over 2.5, but I don't mind betting the longer-odds alts on this, either.Malik Willis 24+ completions (+910)I thought there was a chance the Miami Dolphins would go run-heavy to the extreme with their offense, but in Week 1 it was more of a normal split than I was expecting. Malik Willis threw 27 passes, and the Dolphins ranked 11th in pass rate over expected. My attempts model sees value in the extreme tail outcome here, and I don't think it's that hard to imagine. If the Dolphins fall way behind in this game -- and I suspect they will against the 49ers -- they'll be forced to pass and pass and pass. And there also might be plenty of short throws available for Willis to make. I like this long shot.
