EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsOver the past month, the plight of players who'd signed with NFL teams and participated in training camps was at the center of the fifth-year eligibility controversy. Players in the 2022 high school class were excluded from the NCAA's new rules that grant all collegiate athletes a fifth season, leading to legal chaos.But a football player, even one with NFL experience, can't change a college football squad into a national title contender. That's not the case in college basketball. Many hoops programs are awaiting key rulings on fifth-year players -- as well as players with professional and international experience -- to determine the trajectory of their seasons.Unfortunately for players hoping to play in college again, the NCAA is gaining steam in its fight to end all of the state and federal eligibility decisions. It has also renewed its push to keep players with professional experience out of college basketball, and complicated the path for international targets. Where does that leave those programs?ESPN's Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf rank 13 such teams that will be impacted by the eligibility uncertainty. They could become Top-25 squads with conference championship and second-weekend -- dare we say Final Four? -- ambitions if the players they covet are cleared to play. If they are not cleared, these teams could go into free fall and miss expectations.1. LSU TigersBest case: SEC title sleeper, Top-25 teamWorst case: A limited roster that can't compete in the SEC or beyondRJ Luis Jr., the 2025 Big East Player of the Year, signed multiple two-way contracts with NBA teams. He's going up against the SEC, which forced LSU to back down in its push to have players who'd been in NFL training camps to play another year, and the NCAA, which has vowed to fight all fifth-year rulings. If Luis does end up being able to play, Wade will have an SEC Player of the Year contender.The Tigers also have potential fifth-year talents in Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark, who helped UCLA reach the second weekend of the 2026 NCAA tournament. Marcio Santos, Saliou Niang, Michael Ruzic and Brice Dessert, meanwhile, are European prospects who can help Wade -- but only if they, too, are cleared by the NCAA. Get ready for "Law & Order: LSU" in a boom or bust (second) debut for Wade this season. -- Myron Medcalf2. St. John's Red StormBest case: Top 10 nationally, Big East title contenderWorst case: Borderline Top-25 teamSt. John's has eligibility issues in every category: Keyshawn Hall and Reed Bailey are five-for-five hopefuls; Babacar Sane is a former G-Leaguer; and Quinn Ellis is one of the most anticipated international arrivals in the country. Rick Pitino already lost Syracuse transfer Donnie Freeman for the season, so more absences would be very difficult for the Red Storm to replace.Adding Hall and Ellis to returnees Ian Jackson and Ruben Prey and Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou would give the Storm one of the best lineups in the country, and create matchup problems all over the floor. Without the aforementioned quartet in eligibility limbo, the roster looks incredibly unproven, particularly since Pitino leaned heavily into the international market last offseason. There's a gap between the Johnnies and preseason Big East favorite UConn if they aren't eligible. -- Jeff Borzello3. Texas Tech Red RaidersBest case: Big 12 championship, Final Four contenderWorst case: Borderline Top-25 team once healthyIn February, the program lost two-time AP All-American JT Toppin to a torn ACL. Toppin is expected to return to the court this season, though it's unclear exactly when the 6-foot-9 forward will be available. That means this team's fleet of fifth-year players are even more vital, even though transfers Cruz Davis (Hofstra) and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (UNLV) both averaged over 20 PPG last season. Fifth-year standout Darrion Williams, the hero who led Texas Tech to the Elite Eight in 2025, wants to return to Lubbock after a year at NC State. Donovan Atwell is also attempting to return for a fifth year after connecting on 46% of his 3-point attempts for the Raiders last season. Jamichael Stillwell had nine double-doubles at UCF and would help Grant McCasland weather the storm until Toppin is ready. All three continue to await legal clearance, however. -- Medcalf4. Gonzaga BulldogsBest case: Final Four contenderWorst case: Top-20 teamGonzaga should have its best team -- on paper, at least -- since the 2021-22 season, if all of its five-for-five hopefuls are cleared to play. Mark Few should have one of the elite frontcourt duos in the country regardless, with Braden Huff returning to pair with Arizona State transfer Massamba Diop. Davis Fogle is poised for a breakout season on the wing. But Mario Saint Supery's July decision to sign a pro contract in Spain left Mark Few without a point guard -- and the Zags quickly pivoted to the five-for-five market. They have three players currently in limbo: point guards Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett, and wing Chauncey Wiggins. With all three, Few would have plenty of options and versatility on the perimeter to go with his duo up front. Gonzaga's going to win a lot of games either way, but a full roster puts it in position for a deep March run. -- Borzello5. Missouri TigersBest case: SEC title sleeper, second-weekend teamWorst case: NCAA tournament teamMark Mitchell's shift from Kentucky back to Missouri might have also shifted the standings in the SEC. Although he did not sign an Exhibit 10 contract with an NBA team after going undrafted, he's still a potential casualty of the NCAA's push to deny the fifth-year eligibility of players from the class of 2022 in America. Mitchell (18.3 PPG, 39% from beyond the arc) turns Missouri into a second-weekend team and maybe more.He also expands the depth of Dennis Gates' roster, which includes five-star prospect Toni Bryant, Tennessee transfer Jaylen Carey -- and, possibly, fellow fifth-year hopeful CJ Gunn (13.1 PPG at DePaul). If five-star point guard Jason Crowe lives up to his ceiling as a projected lottery pick, the Tigers will have a roster that could stamp the program's first trip to the Elite Eight since 2009. -- Medcalf6. Iowa State CyclonesBest case: Second-weekend expectationsWorst case: Outside the Top 25The Cyclones are a late addition to these rankings, after former star point guard Tamin Lipsey joined a lawsuit in Indiana seeking a fifth year of eligibility. Lipsey was one of the best point guards in the country during his time in Ames, starting 137 games, going to four NCAA tournaments and earning All-Big 12 honors three times. In his last three seasons, Iowa State won 83 games and advanced to the Sweet 16 twice. If he's back, TJ Otzelberger's team is a lock to be comfortably inside the preseason Top 25.As things currently stand -- particularly after Killyan Toure's injury -- the Cyclones could start the season outside the Top 25. It's a testament to Iowa State's consistent success with Lipsey (and under Otzelberger in general), that this would be the first time the Cyclones were unranked since Jan. 8, 2024 -- 52 AP polls ago. -- Borzello7. Oklahoma SoonersBest case: Knocking on the door of the Top 25Worst case: Bubble teamOklahoma has already received some negative eligibility news this offseason, with the NCAA denying a waiver for former overseas pro and G-Leaguer Akoldah Gak. It wasn't really unexpected, but Porter Moser will hope to have better fortune with five-for-five transfers BJ Edwards (SMU) and Duke Brennan (Villanova). They were two of the better players on the fifth-year senior market, and would slot immediately into the starting lineup alongside returning starters Xzayvier Brown and Derrion Reid, with the likes of Texas A&M transfer Pop Isaacs and Louisville transfer Khani Rooths also expected to play heavy minutes. At full strength, Moser has the makings of a team that can win a game in the NCAA tournament. Without Edwards and Brennan, though, it could be another season on the bubble. -- Borzello8. Miami HurricanesBest case: ACC title contender, Final Four sleeperWorst case: Top-25 team, NCAA tournament berthJai Lucas tied for the greatest turnaround in college basketball history in his first year at the helm, taking the Hurricanes from a seven-win season to winning 26 games. After the school smartly gave him a five-year extension, he can build on that start -- especially if all-ACC first-teamer Malik Reneau (58% from inside the arc last season) can return for a fifth year. The 6-9 forward would add another dimension to a team that already looked like an ACC contender before he announced his intention to return. Five-star talent Caleb Gaskins won state titles with Cameron Boozer in high school. Shelton Henderson could be a star in Year 2, while Villanova transfer Acaden Lewis averaged double figures a year ago. Add Reneau to this group and a run in March seems plausible in Lucas' second season in Coral Gables. -- Medcalf9. Louisville CardinalsBest case: Final Four contenderWorst case: Top-15 teamLouisville had one of the splashiest offseasons of any team, landing Jackson Shelstad and Flory Bidunga in big-money deals early in the transfer portal, followed by the likes of Alvaro Folgueiras (Iowa), Karter Knox (Arkansas), De'Shayne Montgomery (Dayton) and top-10 recruit Obinna Ekezie. As is, Pat Kelsey has a team capable of making a deep run in March. But Seth Trimble could be the missing piece, the type of player who can take the Cardinals to the next level given his high-level defensive ability and the strides he made as a scorer and playmaker at North Carolina last season. Northern Kentucky transfer LJ Wells crashes the glass and gets to the free throw line to provide even more depth. Kelsey could have endless options with these two fifth-years in the fold. -- Borzello10. Michigan WolverinesBest case: Top-25 team, Second-weekend potentialWorst case: Borderline Top-25 teamThe past six months have been a roller coaster for Michigan fans. They watched a dominant buildup to the NCAA tournament, which ended with the Wolverines winning the national championship. Then Dusty May left the program to coach the Dallas Mavericks, weeks before Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. were all lottery picks in the NBA draft. New head coach Mike Boynton Jr. faces lofty expectations for a group that also recently lost five-star prospect Brandon McCoy Jr. to a torn ACL. Fifth-year guards Kenny Noland (17.1 PPG at Columbia) and Roddy Gayle Jr. -- who averaged 9.0 PPG in the NCAA tournament for the Wolverines -- could help stabilize a backcourt led by the NCAA tournament's Most Outstanding Player, Elliot Cadeau. But if neither is available, this team's dreams of defending its title are likely over. -- Medcalf11. Arizona WildcatsBest case: Top-five team, Final Four favoriteWorst case: Top-10 teamArizona is likely the Big 12 favorite regardless of how the various eligibility rulings shake out, thanks to the return of starters Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus Krivas as well as the arrival of North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon and future lottery pick Caleb Holt, among others. Tommy Lloyd will have one of the elite defensive ballclubs in college basketball, with tremendous size and physicality all over the floor.The one missing piece? A forward next to Krivas and Kharchenkov. Koa Peat left early and Milan Momcilovic picked Kentucky, so Arizona pivoted to fifth-year Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey. He's efficient around the rim and draws fouls at a high rate, perfect for Lloyd and the Wildcats. Arizona would have one of the nation's best starting fives with Godfrey in the fold. -- Borzello12. BYU CougarsBest case: Top-15 team, Big 12 title sleeperWorst case: Borderline Top-25 teamWith Bruce Branch III arriving in Provo, Kevin Young will have another projected lottery pick to pair with Robert Wright III and transfer Collin Chandler (9.7 PPG, 41% from 3 at Kentucky). But former Michigan State standout Jaxon Kohler, currently eligible through a court case in California, could complete this group. Kohler, who averaged 12.5 PPG and 8.9 RPG last season, can stretch the floor (39% from 3). He also gives the Cougars a physical presence and maturity that they currently lack without him. The Cougars had a troubling finish after veteran Richie Saunders suffered a season-ending knee injury, which highlighted the value of experience. If Kohler remains eligible, he will check a lot of boxes. -- Medcalf13. Florida GatorsBest case: Preseason No. 1Worst case: Preseason No. 2It's not a wide range of outcomes, clearly, but the eligibility of Denzel Aberdeen is likely the only thing keeping Florida from being the consensus No. 1 team in the country and the favorite to win a second national championship in three years. Aberdeen was a key reserve on the Gators' team that won the title in 2025, averaging 7.7 points in just under 20 minutes per game. He then transferred to Kentucky, where he started 35 games and had a breakout season, averaging 13.5 points and shooting better than 36% from 3. The veteran frontcourt trio -- Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu -- that has been part of so much success in Gainesville is all back, as are guards Boogie Fland and Urban Klavzar. Add Aberdeen to that group, and Todd Golden has the best team in the country. -- Borzello
