EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsThe 2026 NFL season is already here. Unfortunately, through two games, no NFL record has been broken. Boring!Last time we saw regular-season football, Myles Garrett was setting a single-season sack record (23) and Trey McBride was catching more passes (126) than any tight end in NFL history. With a 17-game season and rules skewed to favor offenses, it feels like more and more records are within reach every year.I wanted to find more NFL records that could be broken in 2026, so I went through a long list of candidates. Among them were:Highest average punt distance for a single season (the Cardinals' Blake Gillikin and Packers' Daniel Whelan both hit 51.7 yards per punt last season, tied for third all time).Most receiving touchdowns in a game (Jerry Rice had five -- if it were four, I would have included it).Most penalized team in NFL history (somehow the 17-game season isn't really affecting total penalty numbers).After I ruled those out, I landed on a final six that could reasonably fall this season. There's some statistical reasoning for a few, some schematic considerations considered and some straight vibes rolled in. I want to see a 70-yard field goal. I want to root for a 70-yard field goal. Give me a 70-yard field goal!But let's start with a new receiving record for tight ends.Jump to a record:Most TE receiving yards in a season Most fourth-down conversions in a gameMost team rushing yards in a seasonLongest field goal in NFL historyHighest completion percentage in a seasonMost fumbles forced by a player in a seasonSingle-season receiving yards by a tight endCurrent record holder: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (1,416 in 2020)We have entered a new era of high-volume receiving from tight ends.Last season, McBride was the Cardinals' only bright spot when he set a new single-season NFL record for tight end receptions with 126. He broke Zach Ertz's record of 116 receptions, which Ertz accomplished in a 16-game season (7.25 receptions per game) as a member of the Eagles in 2018. McBride's 126 in a 17-game season was even enough to beat Ertz out on a per-game basis (7.41).Tight ends have cracked 100 receptions 13 times, and eight of them have come in the past six years. In 2024, the Raiders' Brock Bowers broke the record for all rookie receptions (not just tight ends) with his 112-catch season. As tight ends become better receivers and coordinators become more clever in featuring them, the inherent reliability of a tight end target lends itself to high reception totals. Just last season, TE targets had a 72% completion rate, while WR targets had a 62% completion rate.So why bet on the tight end receiving yardage total to be broken? While it is generally the case that tight ends are targeted closer to the line of scrimmage and can't create explosives downfield ... there are a few exceptions to the rule.Bears tight end Colston Loveland averaged 12.3 yards per reception over the course of the 2025 season in Ben Johnson's explosive-oriented offense -- that was third among all high-volume tight ends, and it doesn't even include his wild-card round explosion (eight catches, 137 yards) against the Packers. Because Loveland started the season slowly as a rookie coming off injury, he wasn't heavily targeted, accounting for 15.0% of the Bears' team targets relative to McBride's 27.4% with the Cardinals.I thought Bowers would be a second excellent candidate to set the arc here, but a late meniscus surgery has him out for at least the next couple of weeks. The good news is that Bowers is far from the only young, exciting tight end looking for a spike in receiving.Colts tight end Tyler Warren was on pace for over 1,000 yards last season before Daniel Jones fractured his fibula ahead of Week 12 and the offense suffered. With target sponge Michael Pittman Jr. off the Colts roster, Warren could more than pick up where he left off. Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange has always had the explosiveness (12.3 yards per reception) but never the volume (10.9% of the team's target share) -- but the Jaguars want more multi-TE sets this year, which should open him up as he takes on fewer blocking assignments. Lions tight end Sam LaPorta now has offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who was McBride's playcaller when he broke out as a high-volume pass catcher over the past two seasons. And the Cardinals have a new coaching staff as well -- maybe they'll think about McBride's role a little more vertically.I'm certain we'll see some candidates challenge the receptions record -- it's just too good of a time to be a pass-catching tight end in the NFL. But ... Kelce's 1,416 yards is a bit trickier to reach. Set in 2020 in the throes of Chiefs hype, Kelce benefitted from the ceiling-lifting speed of Tyreek Hill and the pass-happiness of head coach Andy Reid (and some of the greatest quarterback play in the history of the universe from Patrick Mahomes, of course). Even with an additional game, McBride was almost 200 yards off Kelce's total in 2025 -- he had more targets but he couldn't match Kelce for explosiveness.Every candidate we've discussed above has a weakness in his profile.Loveland should have explosiveness and volume within the Bears' passing game ... but Chicago runs it way more than those 2020 Chiefs did (they had the fifth-highest pass rate over expectation in the past 10 seasons, per NFL Next Gen Stats). LaPorta has the ceiling-lifting speedsters in receiver Jameson Williams and the right scheme for big explosives ... but will he get enough targets sharing time with Williams, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and running back Jahmyr Gibbs? Bowers should have the scheme, the volume and the big plays ... but will his quarterbacking quality be enough?If it were easy to break a record, it would happen every year. Of all the receiving records (yards, receptions and touchdowns) across all the positions (running back, receivers and tight ends) I know I want to be betting on tight end records to fall. Bowers broke one in 2024. McBride broke one in 2025. Kelce's total yardage may be the toughest nut to crack at the position, but this new wave of big-play tight ends has the constitution for it.Single-game fourth-down conversionsCurrent record holder: Los Angeles Chargers (six, 2021) and Dallas Cowboys (six, 2025)That's right: Two teams in NFL history have successfully converted on six fourth-down tries in a single game, and one was last season.You're forgiven for forgetting the finer details of the Cowboys' 30-23 Christmas Day win over the 4-11 Commanders, who were starting backup quarterback Josh Johnson. You were drowsy on eggnog anyway. But Dallas attempted and converted six fourth downs on the day, tying the 2021 Chargers (coached by Brandon Staley, the straw man of much fourth-down debate over the past several seasons) for the most in NFL history.Most of the Cowboys' fourth-down attempts were unspectacular. There was a fourth-and-1 from their own 44-yard-line on the first drive. On their second drive, another fourth-and-1 -- this one at midfield -- was quickly joined by a fourth-and-2 from the Commanders' 23 and a fourth-and-1 from the Commanders' 10. According to ESPN Research, that sequence is just the third drive in the past 45 years to start in the first quarter and have three fourth-down conversions. Two of the three were last season. We live in a different world.The Cowboys had another no-man's land conversion (fourth-and-2 from their own 45) late in the fourth quarter, then ended the game on a fourth-and-1 sneak to snag their sixth conversion.It took a unique day of near-conversions on third downs for the Cowboys, who never had to attempt a fourth down longer than 2 yards out. These auto-go situations on fourth-and-1s are why the single-game record is easily within reach. Even as teams attempt more fourth downs than ever before (3.3 per game in 2025), their conversion rate is still rising, because the fourth downs they're attempting have a high probability of being converted. Put another way: Average distance to the first on fourth downs is decreasing.As more teams go for it on fourth-and-1s -- and call plays on third down with those auto-gos in mind -- the potential for a huge spike week increases. Last season featured both the most games with five or more fourth-down conversions (three) and the most with four or more fourth-down conversions (seven) in NFL history. (A 17-game schedule sure helps.) There were also 47 games with three or more fourth-down conversions in 2025, beating the previous record (set in 2024) ... of 34.The tricky thing about seven fourth-down conversions is that it requires seven fourth-down attempts, which is hard to reach. In order to get to fourth down, an offense has to get beyond first, second and third down -- all without losing so much yardage that going for the fourth is untenable. The average NFL offense had 26.8 first-down plays per game last season -- the lowest single-season number this century, as pace of play has declined and defenses are resurgent. To break the record, seven of those 27 potential series need to become a fourth down (26%), and then all seven need to be converted. That's not easy!We've also seen a big spike in fourth-down aggressiveness. A whopping 23.4% of fourth downs were attempted last season -- a huge leap from the 20.0% from 2024. Field position is a big part of that jump, as drives that start closer to the 50 get to the 50 more often, which is the area of the field in which fourth downs are most often attempted. The field position factor feels like it's here to stay, but we can't know that for sure. The total number of fourth-down tries could still decline in 2026.Still, I'm willing to bet that we see seven fourth-down conversions in a game sooner rather than later. If not this year, then in a season soon to come.Single-season rushing yardsCurrent record holder: Baltimore Ravens (3,189 in 2024)In the research process for this piece, I learned that the 1948 San Francisco 49ers (sick logo, by the way) rushed for 3,663 yards. In fourteen games, no less! Johnny Strzykalski led the team with 906 rushing yards from his right halfback position. Seven players had at least 250 rushing yards, including Verl Lillywhite and Len Eshmont (incredible, real names). What a time to be alive.Anyway, this was long before the Super Bowl era began in 1967. With reverence, let's place the '48 Niners atop a dusty shelf and focus instead on the 3,189 rushing yards produced by the 2024 Ravens. It was their first season with running back Derrick Henry aligned beside quarterback Lamar Jackson, and man, it went great. Henry had 1,921 yards while Jackson added 915 -- his highest mark of the past five seasons, thanks in part to being healthy for all 17 games.It was a resurgent season for rushing overall, as offenses swung hard against the two-high shell revolution. Running back carries that season produced 4.4 yards per attempt (tied for the highest mark in a season this century) and 2.47 yards before contact per attempt (highest for a season since 2020). Throw in the best QB rushing season of recent memory -- 20.3 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush, both highs for this century -- and you have the right environment for a record-setting year.The Ravens' gross rushing production diminished in 2025 in much the same way the rest of the league's did. While running back carries stayed up, quarterback runs became less explosive as Jackson, the Commanders Jayden Daniels and the Eagles' Jalen Hurts dealt with injuries and reduced riskiness on the run. If we're going to get a season the likes of that 2024 Ravens year, we need a team willing to run their quarterback again at a high volume ... and an elite handoff game to boot.The 2026 Ravens are clearly the best candidate to pull this off. They replaced both starting guards (John Simpson and rookie Olaivavega Ioane in for Daniel Faalele and Andrew Vorhees), which should improve their downhill rushing attack even with center Tyler Linderbaum gone in free agency. Jackson also spoke openly about his injury struggles in 2025 and his belief he can return to pre-injury form -- that could mean another season of 800 or 900 rushing yards.A big part of high rushing totals is plenty of garbage time, and the Ravens were middle of the pack in offensive plays with a pre-snap win probability of 90% or higher last season (159 total). As a testament to the unique effect of Henry, who seemingly gets better as games go on, the Ravens had 5.1 yards per rush on their 100 garbage-time carries, second only to the Colts.The only other team that runs its quarterback enough to potentially challenge this number is the Bills, who led 2025 with 2,714 rushing yards and were third in QB-specific rushing at 585. They retained their offensive coordinator in Joe Brady, now the head coach, and the current theory is that he'll crank up the pass now that he's at the helm but maybe still let Josh Allen run a little more in the process.The Commanders are one more team to watch here, as they were third in rushing yards in 2024 thanks in part to the dual-threat revelation of Daniels. He missed time with injuries in 2025, and new offensive coordinator David Blough is running more of an under-center offense that will limit his designed runs. But I'm optimistic this could create a healthier rushing attack overall.Also important to watch is Washington's total plays compared to the rest of the league. Partially because of a heavy dose of no-huddle, the Commanders were the second-fastest offense in terms of seconds elapsed per play in 2024. That number dropped in 2025, but it could leap again with Daniels back under center.It feels a little boring to predict the 2026 Ravens to beat a record set by the 2024 Ravens. But the larger league trends lean toward the running game getting easier and easier as defenses play lighter personnel, even against multi-TE sets. Healthy offenses will continue zagging where defenses zig, so rushing attempts and totals should climb in 2026.Longest field goalCurrent record holder: Jaguars kicker Cam Little (68 yards, 2025)This might be a super boring one, as it was just set last year by the big-legged Little in Week 9 against the Raiders. (It wasn't even his biggest kick of the year! His 70-yard preseason masterstroke, regrettably, does not qualify for the history books.) But I like big kicks and I want to talk about them.The average field goal attempted was 40.5 yards last season, marking 2025 and 2024 as the only seasons this century with an average over 40 yards. That number is deepening for two reasons. The first is we're going for fewer short field goals, as teams have elected for more fourth-down tries in the red zone. The league attempted 210 field goals of under 30 yards in 2025, the fewest such attempts this century.But that's not what we care about when it comes to a kicking record. We care about the fact that as the 20-yard field goals have disappeared, the 60-yarders have replaced them. The league attempted 22 field goals of 60-plus yards last season, which is as many as teams attempted from 2000 to 2008 combined.The 2025 leap in 60-plus-yard field goals can be partially explained by the rule change to "K-balls." Whereas teams previously had only a few pregame hours to doctor their K-balls to the preferred feel of their specialists, they can now work on them all season long. This allows kickers to practice with the same balls they'll use on gameday, and in turn, kick them more effectively. Whether or not the K-ball alone is increasing field goal distance, or if it's in conjunction with better technique and easier playing surfaces, is debated within the league. But there's no doubt that longer field goals are more attainable.Still ... a 70-yarder? Only four have been attempted in the regular season this century, and only eight have come in the Super Bowl era. The most recent was a 2024 70-yarder from the Cowboys' Brandon Aubrey that was tipped at the line. Unsurprisingly, this kick came with the clock expiring at the end of the first half (when the field position given to the opposing team after a missed kick wouldn't matter). The longest field goal attempted this century with more than a minute left in the half was another Aubrey try -- only 65 yards.So for this record to fall in 2026, we need to get lucky with a huge-legged kicker on an end-of-half opportunity. Little and Aubrey are the only two kickers to have made multiple 65-plus-yard kicks; Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin has hit his lone try. Jake Bates has been given two chances of 65-plus by the Lions and is 0-for-2, but he had the length on a 67-yarder.Maybe 70 yards will prove a hard limit even as more 60-somethings are attempted. To kick a 69-yard field goal, after all, is to have the line of scrimmage at your own 48-yard line. But my guess is that we'll see at least one 70-yard attempt this season. And so long as we get the attempt, we might well get the make.Single-season completion percentage by a quarterbackCurrent record holder: retired quarterback Drew Brees (74.4% in 2018)This is an interesting one. As an early point of clarity, there are many quarterbacks who ended their seasons with a completion percentage of 100% -- mostly on one or two attempts. The threshold Pro Football Reference uses for completion percentage is that a quarterback attempts at least 14 passes per team game -- 224 in a 16-game season, and 238 in a 17-game season.Under this condition, it's 2018 Brees at the top and 2019 Brees (74.3%) right behind -- his age-39 and age-40 seasons. But players have knocked on the door. Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff (both 2024) are third and fourth on this list at 72.9% and 72.4%, respectively. Drake Maye hit 72.0% in 2025, tied with 2017 Brees for fifth. This one's coming down soon.The 70% threshold has only recently been breached with regularity. Before 2000, only three quarterbacks did it (minimum 200 pass attempts): Ken Anderson in 1982, Joe Montana in 1989 and Steve Young in 1994. The next six times came over 2009 to 2017 -- and four of those were Brees. But then Kirk Cousins did it in 2018 (alongside Brees). Both Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill did it in 2019 (again alongside Brees). Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson did it in 2020 (of course, alongside Brees).It doesn't take spectacular talent to clear 70%. Joe Burrow did it in 2021 with the Bengals, but then Jake Browning also did it two years later. The particular play style of the Zac Taylor Bengals -- a lot of shotgun, two elite receivers, quick throws from spread formations -- lends itself to high completion percentages. And Browning was playing the way a backup should, taking the high percentage throws. When five quarterbacks did it in 2024, the elite (Burrow), the good (Goff, Baker Mayfield) and the average (Geno Smith, Tagovailoa) were all represented.Betting on a quarterback to beat Brees' mark of 74.4% isn't so much a bet on quarterbacks as it is a general bet on offensive health. The league's best offenses are better than the league's best offenses have ever been. When everything clicks, a 70% completion rate is far more easily reachable.This is doubly true as quarterbacks continue to scramble more often (they're currently doing it at historic rates). Scrambles remove bad pass attempts, like late heaves or pressured checkdowns or throwaways. By cutting the chaff of the worst pass attempts, we raise the completion percentage overall.The Chargers feel like the best bet for that particular constellation of elite quarterback, pass catcher and play designer. Justin Herbert has been eerily consistent in his completion rates, as five of his six pro seasons have ended with a completion rate between 65% and 67%. But he has never enjoyed a playcaller who creates as many high-percentage looks as new Chargers coordinator Mike McDaniel.Tagovailoa completed 66.2% of his passes in his first two seasons as a pro. By his second year with McDaniel, he was completing 69.3%; the next season, it was 72.9%. If Herbert elevates the offense beyond what Tagovailoa ever did -- a fair bet to make -- he might get a higher completion percentage as well.Why find a new kid on the block? Burrow is the only quarterback save for Brees to produce multiple seasons over 70%, and he's entering 2026 with the best combo of offensive line and defensive play the Bengals have ever had in his tenure. Why does that matter? It should mean fewer snaps trailing in the fourth quarter in which he's forced to attempt high-difficulty throws ... and better protection when he has to take those obvious dropbacks. Even the Bengals' running game is in a healthy enough place to lead to fewer dropbacks overall.This record feels so gettable because there are another six names I could put here. Goff fits with yet another season with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. Brock Purdy has two seasons at 69.4% and the most completion percentage-friendly playmaker in Christian McCaffrey. Dak Prescott, Mahomes, Allen and Maye are all candidates, too. Everyone is within range.Fumbles forcedCurrent record holder: retired cornerback Charles "Peanut" Tillman (10 in 2012) and retired edge rusher Osi Umenyiora (10 in 2010)Here's one I thought would benefit from the 17-game season but hasn't yet. In 2020, Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey forced eight fumbles, joining a thick tie for seventh all time. Just the year before, Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt put up eight of his own. With an additional game joining the schedule in 2021, why wouldn't we get to nine?It hasn't happened. In the past five seasons, only one player has reached seven (2021, Joey Bosa) and only four have produced six. The reason? Probably nothing in particular.Pressure rate, sack rate and pressure-to-sack rate are all still better than historical rates. For whatever reason, fumble production just collapsed. In 2025, we saw the fewest forced fumbles on sacks (123) and forced fumbles on all plays (366) since 2000. Save for a huge rule change, a drop this big just feels like a blip. And if last year's fumble production was just a blip, then it doesn't mean we couldn't see a swing the other direction.On an individual player level, we can also say with confidence that elite pass rushers are still getting to the quarterback consistently enough to potentially reach double-digit fumbles. With the right rusher in the right environment, the potential is still there.It can be hard to find that right rusher. Umenyiora had seasons of four and five forced fumbles before his 10-strip-sack season appeared from nothingness. But we can narrow down the list by getting rid of power rushers, who don't excel in this field. We do know that speed rushers tend to be more productive than power rushers -- they're the ones who can swipe at the throwing arm as they run by a climbing quarterback.During his sack-record-setting 2025 season, Myles Garrett had only three forced fumbles on his whopping 39 quarterback hits. Denver's Zach Allen somehow had zero on 47 QB hits, which might be a record in its own right. The powerful don't excel in this field.So, could a speed rusher like Houston's Danielle Hunter get here? He had only three forced fumbles in 2025, but he benefits from a lack of attention opposite Will Anderson Jr. Can new Raven Trey Hendrickson reclaim his 2024 form, when he had six forced fumbles? Or what about Aidan Hutchinson (four forced fumbles in 2025) now playing with perhaps the best edge rotation behind him he has ever enjoyed in Detroit? Those are all established names of top-shelf rushers, but again, fumbles come with a lot of randomness. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas Turner, Abdul Carter or Jalyx Hunt come knocking on this door.There's a second avenue to a season with 11 forced fumbles: A back seven player. The Tillman route.As completion percentage climbs along with scramble rate (see above), and as teams hand the ball off a little more, there are a ton of ball carriers available to strike. If fumbles at the quarterback really are declining, expect defensive coordinators to adjust and prioritize creating more loose balls in the secondary. Turnovers are king in the NFL; players and coaches alike will sell out to create them. Humphrey and San Francisco's Fred Warner are both excellent Peanut Punchers who could vie for the record. (*whispers* "Warner already has one and nearly had a second in Thursday's win over the Rams")I'm buying low on the fumble market overall. Maybe it'll look bad when total fumbles forced comes in at another historic low this season. But if predicting broken records was easy, everyone would do it. You've got to get a little bold, and I'm resting my boldness on the balled fists of motivated defenders.
