EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsWelcome to The Playbook for Week 1, which kicks off on Wednesday night when the New England Patriots visit the Seattle Seahawks.This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.Take a look at the latest analysis of each team's strength of schedule as it stands at the start of the season.All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday's main slate, which is why there are no values for any games scheduled on days other than Sunday. (Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.) NE-SEA | SF-LAR | TB-CIN | NO-DET | NYJ-TEN | BAL-IND | ATL-PIT | CHI-CARCLE-JAC | BUF-HOU | MIA-LV| GB-MIN| WAS-PHI | ARI-LAC| DAL-NYG | DEN-KCNew England Patriots @ Seattle SeahawksProjected score: Seahawks 25, Patriots 19Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, A.J. BrownFantasy scoop: Jadarian Price is a starting option in the season opener with Zach Charbonnet (PUP) out for at least the first four games of the season. There's some risk here, as Seattle's backfield touch distribution is an obvious unknown, with George Holani and perhaps Emanuel Wilson potential contributors. Of course, the expectation is that the first-round rookie will lead the backfield that finished second in carries and fifth in rushing TDs last season. Even against a solid Patriots defense, Price is an RB2/flex option.Over/under: 44.1 (10th highest)Win probability: Seahawks 68% (8th highest)San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles RamsProjected score: Rams 29, 49ers 22Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante AdamsFantasy scoop: George Kittle is questionable to play in the season opener, but even if he is active, there's a good chance he'll be limited and left on fantasy benches. However, if Kittle is sidelined, Jake Tonges is a viable replacement/streaming/DFS option. During the seven games Kittle was sidelined last season (including the playoffs), Tonges handled a 17.9% target share (6.6 per game) and posted a 34-328-3 receiving line. That works out to 11.8 fantasy PPG, which would have ranked eighth among all tight ends, ahead of the likes of Harold Fannin Jr., Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren and Jake Ferguson.Over/under: 50.9 (Highest)Win probability: Rams 76% (4th highest)Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati BengalsProjected score: Bengals 26, Buccaneers 23Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Emeka Egbuka, Tee HigginsFantasy scoop: Bucky Irving was viewed as a fringe RB2 throughout draft season and makes for a borderline starting option here in Week 1. Irving has plenty of competition for touches in Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker, but the latter is not fully healthy and may not play much or at all. That's very notable considering that Tucker handled a large bulk of the team's goal line carries down the stretch last season, whereas Irvin had zero carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line on the season.Irving will face a Cincinnati defense that was poor against running backs last season but that should be better in that area in 2026 after the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe. View Irving as a fringe top-20 back who is a better RB2 option if Tucker is sidelined.Over/under: 49.8 (2nd highest)Win probability: Bengals 60% (11th highest)New Orleans Saints @ Detroit LionsProjected score: Lions 27, Saints 18Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPortaFantasy scoop: With Jordyn Tyson sidelined for at least the first four games of the season, both Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson are on the fantasy radar. Last season, Johnson posted career-high marks in targets, catches, yardage and fantasy points (all four were eighth or better among tight ends). His nine top-12 fantasy weeks tied for second most at the position. He's a fringe TE1 this week.Vele is a less proven commodity, but in five games as a full-timer last season (one of which he left hurt), he averaged a solid 5.6 targets per game. That didn't lead to much fantasy production, but he did post an 8-93-1 in Week 13. He's expected to work opposite Olave and is a flex option in deep leagues.Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)Win probability: Lions 81% (2nd highest)New York Jets @ Tennessee TitansProjected score: Jets 20, Titans 19Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Garrett WilsonFantasy scoop: Though he's not quite a lineup lock, Carnell Tate cost you roughly a sixth-round pick during draft season, so he's a good bet to be in most lineups this week. History suggests he may not win you the week, but he's also unlikely to crush you.Over the past decade, 14 wide receivers were selected in the top 15 of the NFL draft and played in Week 1. That group averaged 11.1 fantasy PPG in its debut and was solid, but unspectacular, with 12 of the 14 reaching 9.0 points but only three reaching 16 points (Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith). New York's defense is better, though not overly intimidating, and Tate should see plenty of targets as Cam Ward's new top target. The rookie is a viable WR3 in his first professional game.Over/under: 39.6 (Lowest)Win probability: Jets 53% (14th highest)Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis ColtsProjected score: Ravens 25, Colts 22Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Tyler WarrenFantasy scoop: Alec Pierce became one of the league's highest-paid wide receivers during free agency, but he also missed nearly all offseason activities after undergoing surgery on his left ankle. The 2022 second-round pick could eventually emerge as a viable WR2/3 in fantasy, but he's a risky Week 1 start in his first game action since last season. Pierce, who is fresh off a career year and has paced all receivers in YPR, YPT and aDOT both of the last two seasons, is no more than a risky flex and is best left on benches against the Ravens.Over/under: 47.0 (6th highest)Win probability: Ravens 63% (9th highest)Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh SteelersProjected score: Steelers 24, Falcons 16Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., DK Metcalf, Kyle Pitts Sr.Fantasy scoop: Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle are expected to operate as a two-headed committee this season, with Dowdle likely taking the lead on early downs and Warren highlighted in passing situations. It's possible neither emerges as a weekly starting option, especially in Mike McCarthy's offense.Consider: During McCarthy's last eight seasons as a head coach, his RB rooms have posted an average finish of 25th in fantasy points (none better than 13th) and 29th in target share (none better than 20th). Atlanta does not present an overly intimidating matchup, but neither back is a recommended start until we have a better feel for the touch distribution.Over/under: 40.1 (15th highest)Win probability: Steelers 75% (6th highest)Chicago Bears @ Carolina PanthersProjected score: Bears 23, Panthers 22Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Tetairoa McMillan, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston LovelandFantasy scoop: Chuba Hubbard is coming off a disappointing 2025 campaign in which he battled injury, lost lead-back duties to Rico Dowdle and ranked 64th among 65 qualified backs in forced missed tackle rate and elusive rating, per PFF. Jonathon Brooks, meanwhile, has 12 touches in two pro seasons due to a pair of torn ACLs, but the 2024 second-round pick is only 23 years old and well positioned for a breakout season.Hubbard (hamstring) missed a chunk of training camp, which opened the door for Brooks to earn a larger share of the backfield pie, but it's unclear which of the two will lead what is likely to be a two-headed committee. This is a situation best avoided in Week 1.Over/under: 45.5 (8th highest)Win probability: Bears 54% (13th highest)Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville JaguarsProjected score: Jaguars 24, Browns 17Lineup locks: Quinshon Judkins, Parker Washington, Harold Fannin Jr.Fantasy scoop: The Jaguars' running back room is one of Week 1's most-intriguing fantasy storylines, and that discussion starts with Bhayshul Tuten. The second-year back is the best bet to replace Travis Etienne Jr. as Jacksonville's lead back, but he's inexperienced (83 carries and 14 targets as a rookie) and is likely to defer a chunk of the carries to newcomer Chris Rodriguez Jr. The ex-Commander has been effective as rusher but is a nonfactor as a receiver (seven career targets), which is notable with passing down specialist LeQuint Allen Jr. in doubt for this game.If Allen sits, expect Tuten to handle additional receiving work, which will help solidify him as a fringe RB2 in the opener. Rodriguez should be on benches until we get more clarity on his role.Over/under: 40.8 (14th highest)Win probability: Jaguars 75% (5th highest)Buffalo Bills @ Houston TexansProjected score: Texans 25, Bills 24Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, David Montgomery, Nico Collins, DJ Moore Fantasy scoop: Allen was the top quarterback selected in nearly all 2026 fantasy football drafts, but he'll have his hands full with perhaps the league's best defense in Week 1. Allen faced Houston in both of the last two seasons and struggled to fill the box score. In 2024, he completed only nine of his 30 passing attempts for 131 yards and one TD, somewhat bailing out those who started him with 54 rushing yards (14.6 fantasy points). Last season, Allen threw for 253 yards but didn't score a touchdown, threw two INTs, was sacked eight times and produced only 20 rushing yards (8.1 fantasy points).The Texans defense didn't allow a single quarterback to reach 21 fantasy points in 2025 and remains elite on paper. Allen is too good to bench, but be prepared for a slow start and avoid him in DFS cash games.Over/under: 48.3 (4th highest)Win probability: Texans 53% (15th highest)Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas RaidersProjected score: Raiders 24, Dolphins 18Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, De'Von Achane, Brock BowersFantasy scoop: Jeanty (ankle) is questionable to play in the opener against what projects as one of the league's shakiest defenses. If Jeanty is active, he should be in lineups, barring an unlikely report that he'll be severely limited. If Jeanty is sidelined, the picture is perhaps even clearer: Start rookie RB Mike Washington Jr. The fourth-round pick impressed during the preseason and, while he may be limited as a pass catcher in the pros, he has terrific upside as a rusher, partially due to his combination of size (6-1/223) and speed (4.33 40-yard dash). Washington would figure to operate as Las Vegas' clear feature back, with Dylan Laube as his primary competition.Over/under: 41.6 (13th highest)Win probability: Raiders 71% (7th highest)Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota VikingsProjected score: Packers 22, Vikings 21Lineup locks: Justin JeffersonFantasy scoop: Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list and will not be eligible to play in Week 1. With the Packers' feature back sidelined, MarShawn Lloyd is expected to operate as the lead back, with Chris Brooks and perhaps Pierre Strong Jr. also involved. Lloyd is an unproven commodity (he's appeared in one game in two pro seasons due to a variety of injuries), but the 2024 third-round pick is well positioned for 15 or so touches in Matt LaFleur's RB-friendly scheme. There's obvious risk, especially against a good Minnesota defense, but Lloyd can be viewed as an RB2/flex option in the season opener.Over/under: 43.7 (11th highest)Win probability: Packers 54% (12th highest)Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia EaglesProjected score: Eagles 28, Commanders 19Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin Fantasy scoop: Smith and McLaurin are lineup locks, but that may be where your exposure to wide receivers in this game ends. Stefon Diggs is a possible flex option, but his role is a bit uncertain as he moves from the No. 1 target in New England's high-scoring offense to perhaps the No. 2 target in a lower-volume passing game. He'll also be dealing with a good Eagles defense that allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers all of last season.As for the Eagles, Makai Lemon was injured for a chunk of offseason activities and very well could be limited in his pro debut. Any Lemon limitation would benefit Dontayvion Wicks, but the uncertainty means you're likely betting on a big play or two if he's in your flex over safer options. Even in a good matchup, both Eagles secondary receivers are best left on benches.Over/under: 47.9 (5th highest)Win probability: Eagles 80% (3rd highest)Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles ChargersProjected score: Chargers 29, Cardinals 17Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Jeremiyah Love, Ladd McConkey, Trey McBrideFantasy scoop: Love is listed as a lineup lock primarily because you're unlikely to sit your second- or third-round pick in Week 1, but keep in mind that, if he's active, he very well could be limited. Love, who suffered an ankle sprain in his preseason debut, is talented enough to do a lot with a little, so he'll still be on the RB2 radar if ready to roll against the Chargers.Of course, if Love is ruled out, Tyler Allgeier will make for a solid RB2 option. The ex-Falcon has been limited to a situational role throughout most of his career, but he did score eight touchdowns last season and was effective when operating as a lead back during parts of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.Over/under: 46.3 (7th highest)Win probability: Chargers 87% (Highest)Dallas Cowboys @ New York GiantsProjected score: Cowboys 26, Giants 23Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, Cam Skattebo, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, George Pickens Fantasy scoop: Nabers (ACL) is trending toward playing in Week 1 and, if he does, he should be in lineups. There's risk that he may be somewhat limited in his first game action since Week 4 of last season, but he'll certainly be on the field when New York is passing and, considering he cost you a second- or third-round pick, it's unlikely that you have a better alternative on your bench. In 18 full games in his career, Nabers has a massive 35% target share (11.3 per game) and he's averaging 18.2 fantasy PPG, so he can afford a short-term dip in usage and still provide starting-caliber numbers in fantasy.The Dallas defense is expected to be better this season, but cornerback remains a potential weakness, which only helps Nabers' cause in Week 1. Note that, if Nabers is out, the likes of Darnell Mooney and rookie Malachi Fields will be risky flex options.Over/under: 49.5 (3rd highest)Win probability: Cowboys 62% (10th highest)Denver Broncos @ Kansas City ChiefsProjected score: Chiefs 22, Broncos 21Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Rashee Rice, Jaylen Waddle, Courtland SuttonFantasy scoop: The season's first Monday Night Football game will feature a pair of quarterbacks who perhaps will be left on fantasy benches. Patrick Mahomes is set for his first action since suffering a torn ACL in Week 15 last season, but it's possible his mobility will be severely limited -- and he'll be dealing with one of the league's best pass defenses. Mahomes hasn't cleared 17.3 fantasy points against Denver since Week 17 of 2022, averaging 13.2 PPG during the four-game span. He should be on benches this week.Bo Nix, meanwhile, was a terrific value in 2026 fantasy drafts, but he'll open the season on the road against a good Chiefs defense that has held him to fantasy point totals of 16.1, 12.6 and 19.5 in three career matchups (Nix scored 33.5 against Chiefs backups in Week 18 of 2024, so that is excluded). That's not terrible production from Nix, of course, so while he deserves a slight downgrade, his dual-threat ability keeps him on the QB1 radar.Over/under: 43.3 (12th highest)Win probability: Chiefs 52% (Lowest)
