EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsWelcome to September! How did we get here already? Remember Opening Day? Paul Skenes got knocked out in the first inning thanks to some woeful Oneil Cruz defense behind him. (It was all downhill after that for the New York Mets, though.) Garrett Crochet pitched six scoreless innings for the Boston Red Sox. Jacob Misiorowski fanned 11 in five innings, a sign of his dominant season to ensue. Tarik Skubal pitched six dominant innings for the Detroit Tigers.Indeed, the list of Opening Day starters shows the unpredictability of a baseball season. Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Jose Soriano and Kevin Gausman have been traded. Hunter Brown, Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen have been injured, although Brown has returned, while Crochet, Nick Pivetta and Cole Ragans have missed most of the season because of injuries. The Chicago White Sox lost 14-2 to Misiorowski on Opening Day with Shane Smith starting; Smith made three starts before getting sent down to the minors, but the White Sox have turned out to be the season's biggest surprise.A lot has changed since the start of the season, and more remains to be determined before the postseason. Let's rank the six playoff races that will rule the final month -- and, no, the American League wild-card race, with its battle of .500 teams for the final spot, did not crack the top six. Neither did the National League Central or West races, with both first-place teams having odds over 96% of winning their respective division, according to FanGraphs.We'll start with a race that isn't a conventional division battle because it features teams from three different divisions, but it might be the most important playoff race to watch in September.1. National League race for top two seedsThe Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers are battling for the NL's best record, with the team that finishes third relegated to the much-loathed wild-card series.That's a three-game series to keep your season alive. Anything can happen in the playoffs, but anything can really happen in the wild-card series. Since the best-of-three series began with the new playoff format in 2022, there have been 16 wild-card series -- and the higher seed, despite playing all games at home, has gone just 7-9. The biggest upsets include the 89-win San Diego Padres over the 101-win Mets in 2022 and the 90-win Texas Rangers over the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays in 2023.Not only is a short series more of a crapshoot, but it also means -- if you survive that series as the No. 3 seed -- you move on to face the No. 2 team, which will have the advantage of lining up its rotation while you've just used your three best starters and perhaps burned through the bullpen. These teams will want to get one of those top two seeds.Key trend: Since the end of July, the Dodgers have played five series against winning teams and lost all five series, going 0-3 against the Red Sox, 0-3 against the Chicago Cubs, 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 1-3 against the Brewers and 0-3 against the Braves. If you do a little math, that's 2-14 against good teams over the past month. The Dodgers' rotation is mostly back to full health now, except for Shohei Ohtani, so the concern is the offense, which ranked 21st in the majors in OPS in August and averaged just 2.9 runs per game in those contests against winning teams.The good news, at least for the Dodgers, is that their September schedule is the easiest of the three teams, with only two series against teams with winning records (Miami Marlins and Padres). The Brewers and Braves hold the tiebreaker over the Dodgers, however, so L.A. will have to finish with the better record to beat out either of them.2. American League Central raceOK, as far as division races go, this isn't exactly the 1978 AL East or 1993 NL West. But the Chicago White Sox head into September with a three-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians as Chicago looks to become one of the most improbable division winners ever -- or maybe the most improbable. Even in what was projected to be a soft division in the preseason, FanGraphs gave the White Sox just a 0.5% chance of winning the division. ESPN's odds were even lower.Those odds don't tell the story of how remarkable it would be to go from 102 losses to a division title. No team has won a division title the season after losing 100 games (and, don't forget, the White Sox also lost a modern-record 121 games in 2024). The 2016-17 Twins went from 103 losses to 85 wins and a wild card, while the 2023-24 Royals went from 106 losses to 86 wins and a wild card; the White Sox are trying to beat those turnarounds with a division title.Key trend: The White Sox went 14-14 in August despite the rotation posting a 6.21 ERA; only the Athletics and Colorado Rockies had a worse rotation ERA in the month. Deadline acquisition Luis Castillo has been ineffective, going 1-1 with a 6.45 ERA in five starts with the White Sox, getting knocked out in four of those games before completing five innings and allowing seven home runs in just 22 innings. Sean Burke had been so good all season but has perhaps hit a wall, walking eight batters in his last start and allowing four runs in the two outings before that. Davis Martin is on the injured list because of a blister problem and is 0-2 with an 8.03 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.The offense has kept things afloat, but it has been a scramble for manager Will Venable to get through the early innings of games.3. American League East raceThe New York Yankees had a good August. The Rays had a better one, extending their lead from 2 games at the beginning of the month to 4 after going 18-10. They had a remarkable road trip early in the month, going 9-0 against the Rockies, Seattle Mariners and Athletics, the first unbeaten road trip of three or more series in franchise history (and just the 13th road trip of 9-0 or better in the majors since 1900).Tampa Bay's rotation continues to excel. All-Star Drew Rasmussen has led the way, going 5-0 with a 2.57 ERA in August. Ian Seymour has transitioned from reliever at the start of the season to bulk reliever to full-time starter and fanned over 30% of the batters he faced in August. He has provided some needed depth, as has trade pickup Freddy Peralta. Check out these strikeout-to-walk numbers this month:Rasmussen: 37-to-8Seymour: 48-to-4Nick Martinez: 22-to-2Peralta: 20-to-6Shane McClanahan: 12-to-3 (after a stint on the IL)That will work. Overall, Rays starters ranked sixth in the majors in strikeout rate in August and first in lowest walk rate, with a SO/BB ratio of 6.35 -- well ahead of the Dodgers' 3.52, which ranked No. 2 in the month.But the Yankees' rotation is also rolling. It had a 2.80 ERA in the month, third best in the majors behind the Los Angeles Angels (bet you wouldn't have guessed that) and Marlins. Max Fried is back after missing a couple of weeks because of a left elbow injury, and Carlos Rodon has made three starts since returning from the IL, so the Yankees are finally running out Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Fried, Rodon and Will Warren at the same time. (Ryan Weathers landed on the IL because of a forearm flexor strain after his start on Aug. 22.)The teams have one series left against each other, four games at Yankee Stadium in the final week, part of a difficult September schedule for the Rays that has them playing the Braves and ending with 10 games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies.Key trend: Even after scoring 16 runs Sunday, the Yankees' offense continues to scuffle, ranking 19th in the majors in runs scored in August (the Rays were fourth). Luis Garcia Jr. has proven to be a vital pickup, hitting .292/.340/.506 with five home runs since joining the Yankees, leading the club in OPS during the month. Trent Grisham found his power stroke with seven home runs in August, but the team still hit just .231 this month as Ben Rice (.184, .641 OPS), Heliot Ramos (.148, .576 OPS) and Cody Bellinger (.257, .642 OPS) all scuffled.In other words, this division race might come down to how soon Aaron Judge returns, which is still projected to be the second week of September.4. National League East raceYeah, this is a good race, as the Braves' lead over the Phillies has shrunk from 9.5 games on Aug. 12 down to 4 games -- and the teams still have seven games left against each other.The Phillies' offense was not a playoff-caliber one for the first four months, ranking 23rd in the majors in OPS through July. It finally woke up in August, however, as the Phillies went 21-7, averaging 5.25 runs per game, third highest in the majors. Bryce Harper has been locked in, hitting .333/.496/.573 and drawing 31 walks. Alec Bohm hit .327 while Bryson Stott posted a .409 on-base percentage. Newcomer Luis Arraez has hit .283 with 12 RBIs in 25 games, but that overstates his offensive contribution as he's drawn just two walks for a .293 OBP (though he's also only struck out three times in 103 plate appearances). Still, the Phillies are finally getting some offense from players other than Harper and Kyle Schwarber.What remains to be seen: The Phillies have run hot and cold all season depending on the schedule. August was an easy part of the season, with just one series against a winning team -- the barely-.500 Marlins. September will see those seven games against the Braves plus a season-ending series at home against the Brewers and Rays. On the season, the Phillies are 51-30 against teams under .500 and 27-30 against teams .500 or better. They'll probably have to win at least five of those games against Atlanta to have a shot at the division title.Key trend: The Braves, meanwhile, had one of the most impressive series of their season last week as they swept the Dodgers, with Ha-Seong Kim delivering the walk-off single (his first hit since June) in the second game and then Chris Sale delivering a dominant 1-0, 11-strikeout shutout in the finale. Sale has been the one consistent season-long starter for Atlanta, but the rotation was really good in August with a 2.97 ERA. Tyler Mahle was an under-the-radar deadline pickup and has gone 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA in five starts with the Braves. Bryce Elder had two bad starts in August, but also allowed just one run in three of his six outings.Like with Philly, the Atlanta offense runs hot and cold -- they were 27th in the majors in runs per game in August yet still went 17-11 -- so the starting pitching will have to hold up in September. And keeping Sale healthy and avoiding the late-season breakdown he had in 2024 will be vital.5. National League wild-card raceThis battle for the final wild-card spot is kind of fun, with the Padres leaping back over the Diamondbacks on Monday by half a game and the Marlins four games back. The Padres ended the month by losing two of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and then they got swept by the Rays. But San Diego is still 25-17 since the All-Star break as the offense, which ranked near the bottom in runs most of the season, finally got going. Since the break, the Padres are fourth in the majors in OPS, third in runs per game and even tied for seventh in home runs as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have each slugged 12 home runs. Only Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit more home runs since the All-Star break.But guess who has nearly matched the Padres at 4.98 runs per game since the All-Star break? The Diamondbacks, who have averaged .488. It has been a teamwide effort, with nine players posting an OPS above .750, including rookie outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt and deadline acquisition Lars Nootbaar. Gabriel Moreno, who should be on his way to a top-10 MVP finish, has been clutch, hitting .307 with 35 RBIs in 39 second-half games. The Diamondbacks went 7-6 after Ketel Marte failed to show up for the game in Boston, so that disruption hasn't sent the team into a tailspin -- and Marte played his first game back with the team on Monday, going 1-for-3 with a walk in a 2-1 loss to the Phillies.The rotation is still a little shaky, but Eduardo Rodriguez continues to be the rock, with scoreless outings in his past two starts and wins over the Braves and Dodgers in his two starts before that.Key trend: It's probably just a blip, but Mason Miller allowed home runs in consecutive outings -- his first two home runs of the season -- losing the 1-0 game to the Pirates on Aug. 25 and then blowing the save in an eventual loss to the Rays on Sunday. The bullpen also blew a 6-3 lead in the seventh inning against the Rays on Saturday. The Padres and Diamondbacks have one series left against each other -- a three-game set in San Diego to finish the season. The season series is tied.6. American League WestThe rest of the division should hold their heads in shame if they let a declining Houston Astros team with a terrible rotation pull out this division title. Indeed, owner Jim Crane is so displeased with their barely .500 record that general manager Dana Brown was let go Aug. 24 while manager Joe Espada was given no job security beyond this season, when his contract expires.Still, the Astros might win this division anyway because the Rangers and Mariners continue to trip over themselves. The Rangers went 13-15 in August while the Mariners were even worse, going 11-16 while getting outscored by an incredible 74 runs as they lost games 22-0, 19-3, 11-0, 8-0 and 7-0. The month ended when they blew an 8-5 eighth-inning lead on Monday against the Red Sox, with the tying run coming after Julio Rodriguez slipped in the outfield, turning a single into a triple. Houston wasn't much better in the month but did finish by taking two of three on the road against each of the Yankees and Mets and winning the series opener on Monday against the White Sox.The Astros, of course, have one enormous advantage over the Rangers and Mariners: Yordan Alvarez, who is still leading the AL in all three Triple Crown categories. He did slow down in August with just two home runs as the Astros averaged 4.22 runs per game -- not great, but still better than the Rangers (3.71) and Mariners (3.52). Indeed, the three of the five lowest-scoring teams in August were AL West teams: the Rangers, Angels and Mariners. The two worst pitching teams were the Athletics and Mariners. Yep, the Mariners scored the fewest runs per game in the month and allowed the most runs per game.Key trend: The Houston bullpen, or at least the back end of it, might finally be getting hot at the right time. Josh Hader has been outstanding all season once he returned from the IL and pitched 14 scoreless innings in August, allowing just four hits. AJ Blubaugh, Bryan Abreu, Tatsuya Imai and Steven Okert were all excellent as well, combining for a 1.19 ERA and .162 average allowed in the month. If those late-game relievers keep it going, the Astros should hold on and win their eighth AL West title in 10 years.
