EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsDefending champions Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka are back at the US Open -- but questions surround both of them. Alcaraz is coming off an injury that prevented him from playing in the past two majors, and Sabalenka has had a difficult hard-court stretch since losing in the fourth round at Wimbledon.Will American players such as Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula or Ben Shelton take the title in front of the home crowd? Can Novak Djokovic seize the opportunity for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam?We polled our experts for their picks and best betting tips.Who will win the women's title?CoCo Vandeweghe: Gauff. I think she will have a tough test in the beginning. Then I see her meeting Naomi Osaka in the semis and Aryna Sabalenka in the final. Gauff had a similar run to win the title here in 2023 and it all started with her winning Cincinnati, which she did again this year, beating Jessica Pegula. Gauff for the title.D'Arcy Maine: Gauff. Prior to Cincinnati, and after a largely unpredictable season, it seemed nearly impossible to determine who the women's favorite was to win. But Gauff made it crystal clear in Cincinnati, where she looked virtually unstoppable on her way to the trophy. Now back in New York -- a place in which she's won before -- and with a chance to secure the world No. 1 for the first time, Gauff will be more determined than ever to get it done. She has a slew of potentially challenging players in her way in almost every round, but this still feels like her title to win.Bill Connelly: Sabalenka. It almost feels countercultural to pick the two-time defending champion after the miserable summer she's had to date, but there's nothing specifically wrong with her game, and if returning to Queens -- where she hasn't lost since the 2023 US Open final -- doesn't get her going, nothing will. Her draw's manageable, especially the part where four of the best hard courters on tour (Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic) are crammed together at the bottom of the draw.Aishwarya Kumar: Alexandra Eala. Let me explain: Every court that the 21-year-old Filipino phenom plays on is her home court; every tournament is her home tournament. Fans have packed her courts. New York -- Queens specifically -- is home to the largest Filipino population on the East Coast and you better believe she will be buoyed by their enthusiasm for her.That, combined with the fact that she is playing her best tennis, reached her career high ranking of No. 18, is coming off of her first WTA title in Washington D.C. and has consistently beaten so many top 10 players -- Pegula, Elina Svitolina, Gauff, Rybakina, Swiatek, Jasmine Paolini, Madison Keys -- in just the past year. How could you not pick her?Simon Cambers: This is as open a US Open as I can remember in recent years. You could really make a case for anyone of six or seven players. Gauff comes in with a lot of confidence after winning in Cincinnati, and if she serves as she did there, she will take some stopping. Sabalenka has lost her aura in the past few months, and though she's a favorite, she's vulnerable. Pegula looks rock solid as usual.But I like the form of Swiatek. After a rocky road, she looks more comfortable again and is beginning to build the wins that lead to confidence. Winner in Montreal and a semifinalist in Cincinnati, she's dangerous and in a good section of the draw, too. With Rybakina struggling with an ankle issue, she could come through to another final. I'll go Swiatek (with a saver on Gauff).Who will win the men's title?Vandeweghe: I see 25 looming for Djokovic. There are so many questions around Alcaraz and there is no Sinner in the draw. Top seed Alexander Zverev isn't well-suited for the fast hard courts and hasn't had an impressive run to lead into the final Grand Slam of the year. I see those two meeting in the final and Djokovic winning for a record 25th major title.Maine: Had Alcaraz played in any event prior to arriving in New York, he would be the obvious pick, but I simply don't have enough to go on after his (highly entertaining) mixed doubles appearance and after such a long layoff due to a wrist injury. So, for that reason, I'm going with Ben Shelton. An American man! To win a Slam! He has an incredibly tough draw -- with potential opponents of Cincinnati champ Arthur Fils in the fourth round, Alcaraz in the quarters and Djokovic in the semis -- but he was so impressive in his dominant title run at the Canadian Open and will have a stadium full of fans behind him at every match. So, why not, right?Connelly: This definitely feels like an opportunity for either an out-of-nowhere run -- especially with Alcaraz, Shelton and Fils all manning the same quarter at the bottom of the draw -- or an American title run. Learner Tien is in solid form and has a decent draw, and both Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima come to New York having looked excellent in Cincinnati. But I just can't do it.I'm going with Djokovic. He lost his only tuneup match since Wimbledon (not a great sign), but he starts with a clay-court specialist (Mariano Navone) and will get a familiar face in the second round (Matteo Berrettini or Stan Wawrinka). He could play himself into form and take Slam No. 25.Kumar: I am with D'Arcy here. It's Shelton's time! First, he's having a fantastic hard-court season. I was so impressed by his consistency at the Canadian Open, where he defended his title without dropping a set. He seems to also be having fun on the court. Plus, the circumstances at this year's US Open really favor him. No Sinner. Alcaraz's first tournament after being sidelined with a wrist injury for four months (Shelton's potential quarterfinal opponent). A diminished Djokovic, who I just saw throw up all over center court in Cincinnati. His most formidable opponent will likely be Fils in the fourth round, coming off of his first ATP title last week in Cincinnati. All in all, I like Shelton's odds this year.Cambers: There hasn't been an American winner of the men's singles here since Andy Roddick in 2003, but with no Sinner and Alcaraz only just returning from a serious wrist issue, there is room for someone to come through. Zverev must fancy his chances after winning his first major title in Paris and going so close at Wimbledon, and I'm not writing off Djokovic either. But in Shelton and Taylor Fritz, the U.S. has a chance to finally get a win. Shelton's huge game makes him a major threat, but Fritz has the better draw and the potential here, having already made a final. If he can produce his best form, this could be his time.Betting tipsAll odds via DraftKings as of time of publication.Who is your women's pick to win?Pamela Maldonado: Jessica Pegula (+1200) enters New York 45-12 after reaching the Washington and Cincinnati finals. Her first four rounds are extremely manageable with her first serious test possibly against Muchova or Svitolina in the quarterfinal. Plus, she avoids Sabalenka early and doesn't see Mirra Andreeva, Gauff, Swiatek or Rybakina until the final. Her price feels too low for this draw and current form.Andre Snellings: Coco Gauff (+500). Gauff enters this US Open playing the best hard-court tennis of her career. She is 30-6 on the surface this year, winning 83.3% of the time that tops her career-best 81.6 win percentage in 2023 (the year she won her first Grand Slam at the US Open). Gauff played well at both 1000-level hard-court tournaments leading up to this year's US Open, making the semifinals at the Canadian Open and beating Jessica Pegula in straight sets in the finals to win the Cincinnati Open. She has some challenges in her draw but wouldn't have to face either Pegula or defending champion Sabalenka until the finals. Gauff defeated Sabalenka in the final of her 2023 US Open championship.Who is your men's pick to win?Maldonado: Novak Djokovic (+750) is the best outright price with the cleanest quarter. Djokovic has a path to reach the quarterfinals without multiple physical wars. Potentially facing Daniil Medvedev or Tiafoe is credible, but I would favor neither over Djokovic in a major. The real tournament begins in the semifinal. With Alcaraz having not played since April and Shelton and Fils having tougher draws, there's a real chance that Novak has a walk to the final. A fresh Djokovic who doesn't have Sinner to face? I'm in.Snellings: Carlos Alcaraz (+250). Alcaraz is coming off a long injury layoff and might be rusty, which both makes him a bigger risk and lengthens his odds. The reigning defending US Open champion would have typically had negative odds if he had been healthy all season. He got in some work in mixed doubles with Serena Williams, and if he can get through a challenging opening round match against Roman Safiullin, I expect him to work his way up to his level by the second week. Alcaraz won three of the past four Grand Slams he entered and hasn't lost at a major to anyone but the injured Sinner since the 2025 Australian Open. If he gets to his level, he should be favored against anyone in this tournament.
