EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsEverything -- and we mean everything -- you read below is subject to change.It's a disclaimer we felt we must give. Not because we don't believe in our projections below, but because there's probably a judge somewhere in America making a ruling that could change all of these rosters.This isn't a feeling reserved for the Big 12, the conference under discussion here. Both the SEC and the Big Ten, with whom we did this exercise weeks ago, have faced this. Both are attempting to create their own governance around eligibility rules after the NCAA has lost a number of lawsuits.We just don't know what will happen.Still, we think we have a solid enough assessment of things to project the floors and ceilings for the Big 12.Bill Self has another potential No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Maybe the outcome for Kansas will be different this season than last. Arizona looks like a powerhouse again, though we also shouldn't ignore what the Wildcats lost in the offseason. You could say the same about Houston and Iowa State, which both lost key veterans, too.Amid all this, the Big 12 is looking for a chance to be one of the best leagues in America again. Can it do so in one of the most uncertain seasons in recent memory? Let's see which teams could make it happen.Note: Teams are ordered by their total win ceiling projections.Other conference projections:Big Ten | SEC1. Arizona Wildcats2025-26 finish: 36-3, 16-2 Big 12, lost in the Final FourCEILINGTotal wins: 37Big 12 finish: FirstPostseason finish: National championshipFLOORTotal wins: 28Big 12 finish: FourthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32The Arizona staff has been abuzz about five-star prospect Caleb Holt, who has the makings of an elite two-way guard and could be a top-five draft pick next summer. He's the latest rising star for the Wildcats, who have produced three first-round picks in the past two years. Holt should lead the way with Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley and first-round picks Koa Peat and Brayden Burries all gone. More promising? In five seasons, Tommy Lloyd has averaged 29.6 wins per year. Chances are the Wildcats will be great again.2. Kansas Jayhawks2025-26 finish: 24-11, 12-6 Big 12, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 32CEILINGTotal wins: 34Big 12 finish: FirstPostseason finish: Final FourFLOORTotal wins: 23Big 12 finish: FifthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64Bill Self announced his return at the end of last season, but only after he'd had conversations with his family about his future. Self has had to address retirement rumors for the past few years -- his answer after this upcoming campaign likely depends on five-star recruit Tyran Stokes, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 NBA draft. He's a strong, versatile, talented player who could very well carry the team to the Final Four. But Self no longer has the veterans who might have made the transition to college hoops easier for Stokes and fellow five-star recruit Taylen Kinney. Self's future might well depend on the success of a roster that will need its freshmen to step up.3. Texas Tech Red Raiders2025-26 finish: 23-11, 12-6 Big 12, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 32CEILINGTotal wins: 30Big 12 finish: ThirdPostseason finish: Elite EightFLOORTotal wins: 22Big 12 finish: SeventhPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64Grant McCasland has one of the most mysterious rosters in college basketball. Two-time AP All-American JT Toppin, who tore an ACL in February, is expected to return sometime this season. When he returns, and how he looks once he's back, will impact Texas Tech's ceiling -- as will the legal predicament of Donovan Atwell. The 6-foot-5 guard, who made 46% of his 3-point attempts last season, was initially cleared to play a fifth season through a federal class action lawsuit in Colorado before the ruling, currently in appeal, was temporarily stayed by the court. At full strength, the Red Raiders could be destined for postseason success. Anything less, and it could be a seasonlong roller coaster.4. Houston Cougars2025-26 finish: 30-7, 14-4 Big 12, lost in the Sweet 16CEILINGTotal wins: 30Big 12 finish: FirstPostseason finish: Elite EightFLOORTotal wins: 26Big 12 finish: FifthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32It's fair to wonder if Kelvin Sampson will get the ultimate prize of a national championship before he retires. It's also fair to wonder if he can win 30-plus games for a sixth consecutive season. For either result, he'll need new players to step up: Big 12 All-Defensive selection Joseph Tugler is the only player in the current group who logged more than 20 minutes in the Cougars' Sweet 16 loss to Illinois. The production of Mercy Miller (12 points vs. Texas A&M in the round of 32) and Dedan Thomas Jr. (15.3 PPG at LSU last season) will factor into Houston's ceiling, which currently seems less certain without a typical veteran star on the roster.5. Iowa State Cyclones2025-26 finish: 29-8, 12-6 Big 12, lost in the Sweet 16CEILINGTotal wins: 26Big 12 finish: ThirdPostseason finish: Sweet 16FLOORTotal wins: 20Big 12 finish: SeventhPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64TJ Otzelberger has won 83 games over the past three seasons. The pivotal trio in that run -- Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey -- is gone, leaving Otzelberger without a proven star for the first time in his tenure. Someone new will have to emerge for the Cyclones to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in six years. Candidates include Killyan Toure, who showed flashes of his potential with 25 points in the first round against Tennessee State, and Blake Buchanan, a 6-10 forward who gives the Cyclones size to combine with the offensive talent secured via a strong recruiting class and a transfer portal class headlined by Jaquan Johnson (16.9 PPG at Bradley last season). But all of this is contingent on Toure being healthy by midseason after he recently suffered a shoulder injury and underwent surgery.6. BYU Cougars2025-26 finish: 23-12, 9-9 Big 12, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 64 CEILINGTotal wins: 26Big 12 finish: FourthPostseason finish: Sweet 16FLOORTotal wins: 21Big 12 finish: SeventhPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64It's a new day in college basketball for the Cougars, who will aim to prove they're not a one-hit wonder without AJ Dybantsa. Kevin Young has Bruce Branch III, a potential top-five pick, coming in to help. Branch's game is about finesse, compared with the energized approach of No. 1 pick Dybantsa. If Branch can add some spark to his game, he could be a star, too. Robert Wright III flirted with a possible transfer before returning to Provo. And former Michigan State star Jaxon Kohler was recently cleared to play a fifth season in a California court case. Let's see how it all comes together.7. TCU Horned Frogs2025-26 finish: 23-12, 11-7 Big 12, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 32CEILINGTotal wins: 25Big 12 finish: FourthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32FLOORTotal wins: 21Big 12 finish: EighthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64The discussion around adding talent through the transfer portal often ignores the need for teams to prioritize retention. The latter is the reason TCU could reach the NCAA tournament for the fifth time in six seasons despite losing two of its top four scorers. Luckily, the Horned Frogs still have 6-8 forward Xavier Edmonds, who had options for the future after he scored 16 points and made the game-winning shot in the first round of the NCAA tournament. He'll join fellow returnees Micah Robinson (10.9 PPG), Brock Harding (8.0 PPG) and Tanner Toolson (7.7 PPG).8. West Virginia Mountaineers2025-26 finish: 21-14, 9-9 Big 12, won the College Basketball CrownCEILINGTotal wins: 25Big 12 finish: FifthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32FLOORTotal wins: 18Big 12 finish: 10thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceIn his first year at the helm, Ross Hodge led the Mountaineers to a top-half finish in the Big 12, 21 wins and a College Basketball Crown championship. To duplicate that result, he might need a little help from the legal system. Both Brenen Lorient (11.9 PPG, 1.3 BPG) and Boise State transfer Javan Buchanan (12.6 PPG) are seeking a fifth season. That duo, along with five-star guard Miles Sadler and Finley Bizjack, an All-Big East third team selection at Butler last season -- could propel the program to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2023.9. Oklahoma State Cowboys2025-26 finish: 20-15, 6-12 Big 12, lost in the NIT second roundCEILINGTotal wins: 24Big 12 finish: SixthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64FLOORTotal wins: 20Big 12 finish: 10thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceIn his second season in Stillwater, Steve Lutz's fast-paced style (ninth in adjusted tempo) helped the Cowboys defeat three top-50 KenPom teams that made the NCAA tournament (Texas A&M, South Florida, BYU). Even though Kanye Clary (10.6 PPG) is the only returning player from that group, the Cowboys can still improve. McDonald's All-American forward Latrell Almond leads an incoming freshman class with three top-100 prospects. North Carolina transfer Luka Bogavac and UCF transfer Jordan Burks are other significant additions for a team chasing another 20-win season and its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2021.10. Baylor Bears2025-26 finish: 17-17, 6-12 Big 12, lost in the College Basketball Crown semifinalCEILINGTotal wins: 24Big 12 finish: SixthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64FLOORTotal wins: 19Big 12 finish: 10thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceBaylor winning the national title in 2021 feels like it happened a decade ago, not four years, because Scott Drew hasn't had the same magic touch since. His team hasn't been to the second weekend since that run in Indianapolis, with last season marking the end of a five-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances. That could change if five-star guard Dylan Mingo can become a star and lead a crew of veteran transfers.11. Cincinnati Bearcats2025-26 finish: 18-15, 9-9 Big 12, lost in the Big 12 tournament second roundCEILINGTotal wins: 22Big 12 finish: FifthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64FLOORTotal wins: 17Big 12 finish: NinthPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceA late-season surge didn't stop Cincinnati from parting ways with Wes Miller and hiring Utah State's Jerrod Calhoun as head coach. Every key player from Miller's roster left the program as a result, leaving Calhoun to hit the portal to assemble a team. Myles Colvin (11.6 PPG at Wake Forest last season) is one of six newcomers to have averaged double figures somewhere else. If MJ Collins Jr. -- the former Utah State star whose eligibility is currently in limbo -- gets a chance to play for Calhoun again, this team's potential and outlook will change for the better.12. Arizona State Sun Devils2025-26 finish: 17-16, 7-11 Big 12, lost in the Big 12 tournament second roundCEILINGTotal wins: 20Big 12 finish: EighthPostseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64FLOORTotal wins: 16Big 12 finish: 12thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceAfter building one of the best rivalries in college basketball over a span of 25 years, it seemed likely Saint Mary's head coach Randy Bennett would retire in Moraga -- at least, until he chose to replace Bobby Hurley at Arizona State. In this new era in Tempe, he's bringing along All-WCC first team selection Paulius Murauskas. Together, they won 27 games and tied Gonzaga for first place in the WCC last season. They'll again have to overcome the odds together in one of the most competitive leagues in America to secure Bennett's sixth consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament.13. UCF Knights2025-26 finish: 21-12, 9-9 Big 12, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 64CEILINGTotal wins: 20Big 12 finish: EighthPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceFLOORTotal wins: 17Big 12 finish: 13thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceJohnny Dawkins is probably wondering what might have happened had he known players who had signed with NBA teams this summer could be cleared to return to college sooner. After all, he lost his two leading scorers, Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks, who signed with the LA Clippers to play for their summer league team. Overall, Dawkins' top four scorers from last season are gone, leaving him to rely on a fleet of mid- and low-major transfers. Among them is Dior Johnson, who was hampered by injuries last season yet still averaged 24.0 PPG and 54% shooting from 3 (50 attempts). He'll get his shot to prove he can be an offensive catalyst at the high-major level, too.14. Kansas State Wildcats2025-26 finish: 12-20, 3-15 Big 12, lost in the Big 12 tournament first roundCEILINGTotal wins: 17Big 12 finish: 12thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceFLOORTotal wins: 12Big 12 finish: 16thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceLast season was bizarre for the Wildcats, who fired Jerome Tang for cause midseason, prompting a lawsuit against the school. Belmont's Casey Alexander was hired to clean up the mess in Manhattan, and he has started his tenure by bringing in transfers from 10 different schools, led by former Colorado State standout Brandon Rechsteiner (12.0 PPG, 40% from 3). The Kansas State fanbase knows firsthand that name-brand talent doesn't necessarily translate to success, so expectations won't be very high in Alexander's first season. But that also leaves a lot of room for this team to surprise everyone.15. Colorado Buffaloes2025-26 finish: 17-16, 7-11 Big 12, lost in the College Basketball Crown quarterfinalCEILINGTotal wins: 17Big 12 finish: 14thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceFLOORTotal wins: 14Big 12 finish: 16thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceAfter the 2023-24 season, Tad Boyle seemed to have figured out how to navigate the turbulence of college basketball. He had five double-figure scorers on a roster that had reached the second round of the NCAA tournament. Yet, the Buffaloes have since gone 31-37 -- with few reasons to be hopeful about a bounce-back year. The team brought back 6-1 guard Barrington Hargress (14.1 PPG, 48% from 3) but lost three of its best players, including leading scorer Isaiah Johnson. Boyle's struggle to regroup in a wild moment for the sport could continue this season.16. Utah Utes2025-26 finish: 10-22, 2-16 Big 12, lost in the Big 12 tournament first roundCEILINGTotal wins: 14Big 12 finish: 13thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceFLOORTotal wins: 10Big 12 finish: 16thPostseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearanceSecond-year coach Alex Jensen knows it's possible to win in Utah. He just has to prove it can be done at the University of Utah. Both Utah State and BYU have reached the NCAA tournament multiple times since the Utes' last NCAA tournament appearance in 2016 (the same year as Weber State's most recent appearance), proving top players will come to the state to play basketball. But Jensen will need a strong year from Utah Valley transfer Jackson Holcombe (16.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and other newcomers to give this team a boost in his second season.
