EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsHow open is the Denver Nuggets' title window?After winning 54 games in 2025-26 to secure the Western Conference's No. 3 seed, Denver fell to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. But rather than a splashy acquisition, this offseason had seen the 2023 champions bank on a reshuffled conference, the mastery of three-time Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic and elite continuity.But next season will look a bit different for Denver after the franchise dealt forward Peyton Watson to the Cleveland Cavaliers to end one of the summer's biggest restricted free agency sagas.ESPN's staff of experts is looking back at the offseason and taking an early look at the 2026-27 season for all 30 teams, with 30 pieces -- one for every team -- rolling out each weekday through Sept. 18. We're answering the biggest looming questions, evaluating X factors and much more for all 30 teams.Quick links:Roster | Depth chart | TransactionsMore Nuggets coverage | More NBAOffseason at a glanceKey additions: Marvin Bagley III, Lonnie Walker IVKey retentions: Spencer Jones, Tyus JonesKey subtractions: Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas ValanciunasFinding a resolution to Watson's restricted free agency was Denver's most important piece of summer business.Watson is a draft success story, rising from the 30th overall pick into one of the league's more intriguing young two-way wings. But retaining the 23-year-old would have been expensive -- via either a sky-high luxury tax bill or a salary-slashing move to get off an important veteran and generate more breathing room for a new deal.After Wednesday's deal to send Watson to Cleveland, Denver's front office can shift its attention to escaping the salary cap's second apron. The Nuggets are currently the league's only team above it. -- Anthony SlaterZach Kram's grade: Nuggets earn 'D' for Watson sign-and-tradeLosing Watson means the Nuggets don't get to reap the long-term rewards of developing him from a raw reserve into a bona fide contributor. Amid a host of failed draft picks in the 25-40 range over the last half-decade -- Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, Bones Hyland -- Watson was the one standout, and Denver clearly missed his two-way ability in its shocking playoff loss to the injury-ravaged Timberwolves last spring.But now the Cavaliers will benefit, because they were able to create enough financial wiggle room to dip below the second apron and add Watson, while the Nuggets were not.The Nuggets' draft pick compensation is sufficiently enticing that this deal isn't an unmitigated disaster. Now the Nuggets, who didn't have any tradeable firsts before Wednesday, can theoretically use this unprotected Cavaliers pick to trade for a different player. -- KramWhat we learned over the past few monthsFrom Ben Golliver's offseason lessons piece: Denver is clinging to the status quo.Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, Denver's most obvious trade chips, appear to be more valuable alongside Jokic than they would be for most outside suitors. Not making a trade is preferable to making a bad trade.Although it's frustrating to watch years pass without Jokic's supporting cast enjoying a real talent boost, the Nuggets could benefit from attrition to other Western Conference contenders. The Oklahoma City Thunder shipped out Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins this summer, the Timberwolves traded Julius Randle and Naz Reid to import LaMelo Ball, and the Los Angeles Lakers parted with LeBron James, Rui Hachimura and Deandre Ayton. -- GolliverThe big question: What is Jokic's future in Denver?An NBA superstar declining to discuss a four-year, $278 million extension with only one season of team control remaining on his current contract would typically raise the alarm. Jokic has done his best to suppress that, maintaining he wants to stay in Denver his entire career and indicating that the holdup is about an ability to make even more money next summer.But until Jokic is locked in for the long-term, every Nuggets move will be viewed with a microscope, any in-season struggle will carry extra weight and any crack of daylight for Jokic will generate whispers. -- SlaterPost-free agency Power Rankings: Nuggets are No. 18Basketball Power Index rank: No. 7Here are the predicted Net Points per 100 possessions for the Spurs' top seven players for the 2026-27 season:Since the start of their 2022-23 championship season, almost every single Nuggets player has fared better on offense with Jokic on the floor: Braun, Johnson, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, etc.Michael Porter Jr. was one of those, too, so you'd think he would have declined with the trade to the Brooklyn Nets. But he played just as effectively as he did with Jokic, while using more possessions. Porter somehow broke the Jokic reliance. -- Dean OliverRead about how Net Points works here.Biggest X factorF Cameron JohnsonJohnson got off to a slow start in Denver, but he quietly made strides as he grew more familiar with his new teammates. By season's end, he finished eighth among qualified players in 3-point percentage and 24th in true shooting percentage.There is still more room to improve, more so with volume than accuracy: Johnson's 15% usage rate last season was a career low and he attempted a career-low 4.7 3s per game. Denver already led the league in offensive rating last season with that version of Johnson; imagine how good the Nuggets' offense could be with a more active, involved version in 2026-27. -- KramBetting insight from our expertBet to make ahead of the season: Over 49.5 regular-season wins (-110)The Nuggets have won at least 50 games in four straight seasons, including 54 last year despite constant lineup changes. As long as Jokic is healthy, Denver should remain one of the West's better regular-season teams. The bench is a concern, but the Nuggets don't need to improve much for this bet to cash. Another season close to last year's pace gets them over the total. -- Eric MoodyOdds by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.
