EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsA new fantasy football season is upon us and -- if you tuned out after February's Super Bowl -- you have a lot of catching up to do.The 2026 NFL offseason had a flurry of action that will bring massive changes to the upcoming fantasy season. It starts at the top, as we have 10 new head coaches and a whopping 19 new offensive playcallers. And then there are the players. Arizona selected Jeremiyah Love with the third pick of April's draft, and the rookie is immediately in the fantasy RB1 mix. Standout backs Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) and Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) both found a new home. A.J. Brown was traded to New England, Jaylen Waddle to Denver, DJ Moore to Buffalo and Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh. Oh, and future Hall of Famer Mike Evans? He's now on the 49ers. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.This initial installment of The Playbook takes a thorough, position-by-position look at the fantasy landscape and offers advice and information that can help you make sound decisions on draft day. The focus will be on average-sized redraft leagues, but I didn't forget the more nuanced leagues, including dynasty, keeper, superflex and best ball, which will be covered in Part 2 of The Playbook (coming soon). In Part 3 (later this summer), I'll take a deep dive into managing your team postdraft and throughout the season.The Playbook is a strategy piece for beginners and advanced players that shows you how I apply all that I've learned during my many years as a fantasy player and an offseason of research. I originally published a version of this series in 2021, but it is a living piece that I update substantially each year.State of the positionsQuarterback: Josh Allen and then everyone elseLast season, it appeared we had a "Big 4" at the position, but three of the four underwhelmed (Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson), with only Allen performing at an elite level all season. In 2026, Allen, who has finished first or second in fantasy points each of the past six seasons, is the only quarterback we can trust for elite production. The question is, with so many potential fantasy QB1s available late in drafts, is Allen worth the opportunity cost?I've generally stayed away from Allen in the third round, instead focusing on quality starters at running back and wide receiver. What's interesting about the position is that, after Allen, there are so many question marks that there's not really a wrong answer as it pertains to when to attack. The likes of Daniels, Jackson, Hurts, Joe Burrow and 2025 breakout Drake Maye offer plenty of upside and can be had in Rounds 5-6. Then comes Jaxson Dart (my favorite 2026 QB breakout), Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert and some fellow named Patrick Mahomes. I've now listed 15 quarterbacks, and all of them have the upside to deliver solid QB1 numbers.Especially considering several of those 15 passers can be had in the eighth or ninth round, I wouldn't feel bad leaving a draft with any of them as my starter (assuming I didn't reach too far). After that point, you'll be dealing with high-risk players (like Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Malik Willis and Tyler Shough) or low-ceiling QB2s (Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love).Takeaway: Pounce on Allen if you want the security, but know it's going to cost you a good starter at a key position. Otherwise, monitor your QB tiers and pounce when a good value falls into your hands.Running back: Stock up early or elseWide receiver has become the priority position in fantasy football, but hitting on impact running backs remains extremely important. And, as last season proved once again, we need to keep an eye on age trajectory.In the 2025 version of this column, we observed that Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones Sr. were 29 or older, and Saquon Barkley was 28 coming off a massive, 482-touch workload. And yet all of them were being selected in the early rounds of drafts. Unicorns McCaffrey (first) and Henry (eighth) panned out, but none of the others did due to injury or a slip in production.Check this out: The average age of a top-15 fantasy running back (by scoring) the past five years is 25.3, rising as high as 25.9 in 2022 and as low as 24.9 in 2021. Only 12 of the 75 RBs (16.0%) were 28 or older to begin the season.Why are these age stats notable? McCaffrey (30), Barkley (29), Henry (32), Josh Jacobs (28) and David Montgomery (29) are currently being selected in the first five rounds, and each is entering his age-28 season or older. And that list doesn't include backs going a few rounds later, like Tony Pollard (29), Rhamondre Stevenson (28), Rico Dowdle (28) or Aaron Jones Sr. (31).Can we still count on these veterans who have proved elite/reliable over the past half-decade and remain positioned for big workloads, or should we anticipate a regression in production and lean into youth? Last season, targeting younger backs remained fairly successful, as Bijan Robinson (now 24 years old), Jahmyr Gibbs (24), De'Von Achane (24), James Cook III (26), Chase Brown (26), Kyren Williams (26), Javonte Williams (26) and Ashton Jeanty (22) worked out well.This year, we can add Love (21), Omarion Hampton (23), Breece Hall (25), Walker (25), Cam Skattebo (24), Quinshon Judkins (22), Bucky Irving (24), TreVeyon Henderson (23), Bhayshul Tuten (23) and Jadarian Price (22) to the list of 25-and-younger backs who could leap into (or back into) the weekly RB1 mix.Several of these young backs are viable draft targets if you subscribe to some version of the "Zero RB" strategy, a drafting philosophy that involves not selecting a running back early, instead loading up on wide receivers (and perhaps an elite tight end or quarterback) in the first several rounds. Then, when top backs inevitably get injured, your opponents' rosters get worse and you can use your stashed backs and waivers to fill your RB slots, giving you an edge on the field.If you spend none or one of your first five or so picks on a running back this year, you likely will enter the season with an extremely uneasy feeling at the position. The clear, reliable lead-back tier dries up at around RB15 (Walker and Javonte Williams territory) and then the questions begin; whether it's the timeshares for the Rams, Saints, Bucs and Patriots, or the health of players like Skattebo and Judkins. I don't have an issue betting on the upside of many of the backs in this tier, but only as my second back or flex.Takeaway: Prioritize at least one running back in the first two rounds and don't be afraid to take two with your first three or four picks. The running back "dead zone" starts to rear its ugly head in the fifth round.Wide receiver: A few superstars and a lot of dart throwsWide receiver has evolved into a bit of a top-heavy position, with a short list that includes Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson leading the way. Each receiver is assured a hefty target share and is likely to cost you a first-round pick in 12-team leagues.There are other respectable options for your WR1 slot, including Nico Collins, A.J. Brown and Drake London, but it gets trickier after that because there's not a massive drop-off at the position from that point on. And all of the potential picks have questions:Will Rashee Rice finally play a full season? Will Chris Olave repeat as a WR1 with Jordyn Tyson in the mix? How about George Pickens with a healthy Lamb? Will Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka make a Year 2 leap? How will DeVonta Smith respond with Brown no longer attracting coverage? When will Malik Nabers return to 100% health? Will Ladd McConkey, Evans, Terry McLaurin and Marvin Harrison Jr. rebound after down years? What's the upside of Carnell Tate, Luther Burden III, Parker Washington and Rome Odunze?There are a lot of tough questions in that paragraph, and all of the listed players will cost you a pick in the first six rounds. The good news is that all of these receivers (plus many more) are expected to provide starting-caliber production, but they're all very close in value, which means you can monitor your draft's progression and take advantage of some very large tiers of similar players. There's so much uncertainty and depth that you'll be spending mid-to-late-round picks on players who could easily be in the WR3 mix as early as Week 1. For example, veterans Courtland Sutton, Pittman, DK Metcalf, Alec Pierce, Jakobi Meyers and Wan'Dale Robinson, as well as breakout candidates Matthew Golden, Makai Lemon, Josh Downs and Ricky Pearsall can be had in Round 7 or later in many 12-team leagues.With wide receiver so deep, how do we sort through the congestion and properly identify which players to target?Over the past five seasons, 44 of the top 50 wide receivers (88%) in fantasy points per game were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft (only two were undrafted). During that span, 119 of the 150 WRs (79%) to finish in the top 30 at the position were selected during the first three rounds. Only eight of the 150 were not drafted in the first five rounds. Draft capital matters.And it matters for rookies, too.Only 33 of the 321 wide receivers (10%) picked in the NFL draft from 2016 to 2025 finished as a top-35 fantasy WR as a rookie (six finished in the top 12). Of those 33, only three were picked after the third round. Exceptions happen, but history tells us to avoid reaching on players with low hit rates and focus on players selected in the early rounds.We should also focus on second-year receivers who were good as rookies. Since 2005, 31 of 43 WRs (72%) who finished in the top 30 in fantasy points as a rookie repeated as a top-30 WR in Year 2. With injuries so prominent in the NFL, that is a shockingly high hit rate and worth our attention. Last season was actually a down year in this category, but that shouldn't stop us from prioritizing 2025 top-30 finishers McMillan (16th) and Egbuka (23rd). History says one or both will repeat their success in 2026.On the other hand, I did some research to determine if it was worthwhile to target post-hype, second-year receivers who struggled as rookies. It turns out that it depends on just how much they struggled. The magic number seems to be 90, as in, if a wide receiver did not finish in the top 90 at the position in fantasy points as a rookie, you can all but throw in the towel.Here's the data: 58 of the 137 WRs (42.3%) taken in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL draft from 2015 to 2024 finished worse than 90th in wide receiver fantasy points as rookies. Only six (10.3%) of the 58 have gone on to deliver a single top-30 season in their career: Nelson Agholor, Jameson Williams, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams, Wan'Dale Robinson and DJ Chark Jr. None managed a top-10 campaign, and the ones who cracked the top 20 did so only once. Mike Williams is the biggest success story from the group thus far, and it took him until his fifth season to crack the top 30. As long as you're somewhat competent as a rookie, you have a shot at success. If you're all but a nonfactor, you're likely a lost cause.We saw an example of this last season, as this same column warned you to avoid 2024 Round 1-3 WRs who struggled as rookies. Adonai Mitchell (112th), Luke McCaffrey (127th), Ja'Lynn Polk (129th), Jermaine Burton (154th), Malachi Corley (190th) and Roman Wilson (216th) were all outside the top 90 as rookies and the best finish by the group in 2025 was Mitchell's 74th.So, who does this study suggest we avoid in 2026? Tre Harris (92nd), Jaylin Noel (93rd), Kyle Williams (112th), Jack Bech (120th), Savion Williams (146th) and Tai Felton (195th) comprise the list of 2025 receivers taken in Rounds 1-3 who finished their rookie season outside the top 90 receivers in fantasy points. Isaac TeSlaa (83rd), Pat Bryant (86th) and Matthew Golden (90th) just made the cut. History tells us that, though maybe one of these guys will make a leap, it's very unlikely, so we shouldn't invest much in them. Instead, we can focus on high-potential rookies or post-hype, second-year players who at least showed some flashes in Year 1. Players who fit that bill include McMillan, Egbuka, Jayden Higgins and Burden.Takeaway: Ideally, you're grabbing a star receiver early, but the position is deep with veteran talent and a strong corps of talented young stars, so there's no need to force things. When it comes to early-career sleepers and breakouts, history shows that draft position matters. NFL scouts do a pretty good job of identifying the high-ceiling guys, so, for the most part, trust their work.Tight end: Stronger than ever ... but for real this timeEach year, it seems like tight end will finally be a deep position full of viable starters ... and quite often, the position lets us down. Last season felt like perhaps a changing of the guard. Trey McBride lived up to the hype, Kyle Pitts Sr. finally broke out, Travis Kelce produced another top-three campaign, rookies Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren and Harold Fannin Jr. were all top-12 scorers, and veterans Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson were reliable starters. That was a pretty solid showing and came despite several key injuries (Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta).McBride (second only to Ja'Marr Chase in targets and receptions over the past two seasons) and Bowers (18th among non-QBs in fantasy points as a rookie in 2024) are the class of the position and will need to be on your radar at the Round 2/3 turn if you want their services. Both are worth the investment, though it's not my favorite spot to attack.That comes a couple rounds later when Loveland and Warren can be had.If you miss on those four, you still have plenty of quality-to-serviceable options, including Pitts, Fannin, LaPorta, Kittle, Goedert, Kelce, Ferguson and -- though he's a bit too pricey for me -- Kraft. Those are already 12 tight ends, all of whom are viable Week 1 starters (assuming health), and all but Kraft can generally be had in Rounds 9 through 12.After that? It's a bit messier, but you have some options, including Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely (who are no longer on the same team), T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Kincaid, breakout candidate Terrance Ferguson and rookie Kenyon Sadiq (the last five tight ends selected in the first round of the draft finished in the top 12 in fantasy points as a rookie).Takeaway: There is value all over the board at tight end. Though McBride and Bowers are worth the hefty cost, there's no harm in passing and waiting for a middle-round value.D/ST and kicker: WAIT!History has taught us over and over again that we should never reach on D/STs or kickers. Need some evidence as to why? I have you covered.The No.1-scoring fantasy D/ST has finished ninth or worse the following season seven of the past nine years. Additionally, four defenses that finished 27th or worse in 2024 rebounded with a top-10 finish in 2025. As for kicker, the top scorer at the position has finished eighth or worse the following season in six of the past eight years. Jason Myers, an 11-year veteran, had never finished better than fourth in fantasy points prior to leading the position in 2025.The best practice is to choose a D/ST and kicker with your final two picks and then monitor waivers to find the best weekly plays (generally based on their matchups) throughout the season.Draft strategyYou should have a pretty good feel for the 2026 fantasy football player pool, so let's do a little housecleaning before we head off to the draft room.Nail the first roundOutside of "give me a good sleeper," the question I'm asked most often is, "What should I do with my first pick?"I already discussed some sleeper strategies, so let's address the latter.In the past, running backs dominated the first round with a few top wide receivers and, at times, even quarterbacks as part of the conversation. However, the combination of the high injury rate and short shelf life at running back, the depth at quarterback and the consistent production of a few elite receivers has closed the gap over the past decade. These days, Round 1 is often an even mix of wide receivers and running backs.Do you play it safe with a proven receiver or take a risk on a potential league-winning back? It somewhat depends on where you're drafting in the first round, but to be quite honest, I don't believe there's a wrong answer in 2026.If I have one of the first two picks, I'm rolling with one of the league's elite, young running backs in Robinson or Gibbs. From there, it becomes dealer's choice, with several top backs (Jonathan Taylor, McCaffrey, Achane, Cook, Jeanty) and a bunch of elite receivers (Nacua, Chase, Smith-Njigba, Brown, Lamb, Jefferson) among your top options. You really can't go wrong.The bottom line is to not overthink it. Take the best player on your board and adjust your draft plan from there.Creating the best rosterWe covered Round 1, but what about the rest? During my draft, I'm tracking my picks and aware of which positions need filled, but I'm never passing on an obvious value, even if it's not a position of need. In nearly every draft I do, there are players who plummet well beyond their ADP, and I anxiously await my opportunity to pounce. By the way, how frustrating is it when that player is chosen right before you're on the clock?Anyway, passing on value is a major recipe for disaster over the long term, but many do it. There are always talented players -- think Sutton two years ago and Pittman last season -- who fall too far in drafts and prove to be key components to a fantasy title run. These players aren't new or young or exciting, but you should be feasting on them. You don't need a home run with every pick to win the title. You need to reach the playoffs first and, from there, you need a competent lineup and some luck.Here's something else to think about: We don't fully acknowledge as an industry how different our lineups look in the playoffs than they did entering Week 1. I can recall a championship-winning team in an FSGA industry league that included ZERO running backs that I drafted. And that's why focusing too much on filling out a perfect lineup on draft day isn't as important as collecting the best talent possible. Where is the line? You'll know it when you see it (e.g. when guys such as Sutton and Pittman are staring you in the face).This is a good place for a reminder to have fun! If you have a sleeper lined up, make sure you get him on your squad. There aren't many worse feelings than correctly identifying a breakout player but missing out on draft day because you played it too safe, then watching "your guy" carry your leaguemate to a title. Brutal.The bottom line: When it comes to your fantasy football draft, know your league settings, have a good set of rankings/tiers, be aware of ADP and don't pass on obvious values. Follow your draft board to fill out the best possible lineup and, once that looks good, focus on finding potential league-winning players, using the strategies throughout this article to identify the best targets. When all is said and done, you'll come out of your draft well positioned for a run at your league championship.
