EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsErrol Spence Jr. returns to the ring for the first time since his ninth-round TKO loss to Terence Crawford in July 2023 when he takes on Tim Tszyu on Saturday in Sydney (PBC PPV on Prime Video, 9 p.m. ET). The bout matches two former world champions at career crossroads, each looking to prove he still belongs among top contenders.Spence (28-2, 22 KOs) entered his long-awaited fight against Crawford as the unified WBA, WBC and IBF welterweight champion looking for the undisputed championship. But Crawford delivered a one-sided master class, dropping Spence three times before stopping him in the ninth round in one of the most dominant performances of his career.During three years away from the ring, Spence has made changes. He parted ways with longtime trainer Derrick James and is now working with veteran coach Ronnie Shields in Houston. He is also moving up in weight, with the fight against Tszyu taking place at the middleweight limit of 160 pounds.Tszyu (27-3, 18 KOs) appeared headed for stardom after opening his career with 24 consecutive victories, including 17 by knockout. But he suffered back-to-back defeats in 2024 -- first a bloody loss to Sebastian Fundora, followed by a brutal knockout at the hands of Bakhram Muratallaiev. While Tszyu has gone 3-1 since then, including another loss in a rematch with Fundora, the punishment absorbed in those defeats has raised questions about whether he is still a top fighter.Can Tszyu once again find the relentless pressure and physicality that made him a WBO junior middleweight champion, and use his movement to frustrate Spence before landing his power punches inside? Or will Spence show that the loss to Crawford was just a bad night at the office, and demonstrate once again he's in the top class?A boxing trainer and a former champion share their thoughts on how the fight could play out and pick a winner.Editor's note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.Robert Garcia, boxing trainer, former junior lightweight championThe matchupOn paper, it's a very competitive fight. It's a good fight, both big names. Both have been through bad moments in their career, but Tszyu has been fighting more. Even though he's lost a couple fights, he's the active fighter. I think with Spence coming back from a really, really bad knockout to Crawford and the [2019] car accident, I favor Tszyu. He's just active and maybe a little bit healthier.How does Tszyu win the fight?If I was coaching him, I would try to go fight smart the first few rounds and see what Spence has and take it into the late rounds. The question for me with Spence is, how good is he going to come back? Did he take this fight just to have a big payday instead of a tuneup fight, because he knows he doesn't have much left? That's something I've always thought about. If you're coming back after a few years and a car accident, with a new trainer, I would start with a tuneup fight.Tszyu should try to take the fight into the late rounds but keep up his activity. Don't stand in front of Spence. I think Spence, based on his last performance, his legs might not be the same. So, move around him and keep him guessing a little with tactics that are going to frustrate Spence the first few rounds, then finish strong towards the second half.Use feints, move around, use your legs. I think that's something Tszyu could do. He's done it before. He has good footwork.How does Spence win the fight?If he's healthy, has trained hard, is in great shape and his body feels good, his legs are good, he should beat Tszyu. But I don't think that's the case. If Spence doesn't have much left, I don't think he could be a problem for Tszyu.If he's fresh and strong, then start fast. If he does not have much left in him, maybe start slow the first few rounds, everything off the jab, and finish strong. He and his trainer should have an answer for that, from the work he did in the gym.Prediction: I think Tszyu wins, and it could even be a stoppage. At this point, Spence might not have anything left. I hope I'm wrong, because I like him. He's a great person. I hope I'm wrong because his health is very important, too, and I don't want him to get hurt.Raul Marquez, boxing analyst, former junior middleweight championThe matchupThe two fights with Fundora took a lot out of Tszyu. Then he made the comeback against Muratzaliev and lost by KO again. Those fighters took a lot out of him. Obviously he's nowhere near his father's [Hall of Famer Kosta Tszyu] status. People thought he would be like his dad, or even better, but he's not.Spence, on the other side, he's been out for three years, so we don't know what he's got, either. And even in the Crawford fight, I was very surprised, but we saw that Spence hasn't been good enough since the accident. Not to take anything away from Crawford after what he did with Canelo Alvarez, but I just didn't see the same Spence that we had seen in the past.The Spence I remember had broken down other fighters. When he went overseas and beat Kell Brook, he broke him down, and that was a big win. It's not easy to win overseas. He beat the c--- out of Brook. He also beat Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia, Mikey Garcia. He defeated all of them, broke them down.He had nothing against Crawford. I didn't see the Spence that I expected.This weekend, we'll see who's trained harder, who's taking care of their body better.How does Tszyu win the fight?I think Tszyu needs to fight his fight the way he fights best, come forward and get that respect from Spence early, test his chin. Establishing a good jab is key, as it will dictate the pace of the fight. Be confident in there. Double, triple the jab. I think Spence has a better jab than Tszyu, but both need to establish that jab. And Tszyu has to land some hard punches early and get that respect, test Spence's will.Honestly, I don't see Tszyu winning unless he's going to war and forcing Spence to go to war. Maybe he can see that Spence is completely shot, completely done. That's the only way I see Tszyu winning, because of the beatdowns that he's had against Fundora and Muratzaliev.Another thing Tszyu can try is to box Spence intelligently. Pick your spots. Control the fight with the jab, get respect early with some good power shots and don't sit in front of him too much. Do your work and move to the side, circle around him. You could put pressure on Spence by boxing and moving in circles and not standing in front of him, staying out of the line of fire. But you've got to have great footwork. You've got to have a great chin. You've got to have great conditioning to do that for 12 rounds. Can Tszyu do that? I don't think so, but he can try.That's the only way he's going to beat Spence. Land some hard shots, get that respect, make him think about the Crawford fight. Test him. See how much confidence Spence has left.How does Spence win?I like the old Spence, the way he hunted you down with the jab. People don't like it when I say this, but he's got that Mexican style of boxing, where he's moving and he's measuring you with the jab. He's got really good body shots. That's the way he breaks you. The way he moves in and out, I think that kind of style will be good against Tszyu -- that's the way to break him down.Spence should go back to his old ways -- jab, jab, more jab, the long jab, boom, boom. Then he throws his left hand, then to the body and back to the jab. That Spence breaks you down as the rounds go, systematically breaking you down with body shots.Spence mixes up his combinations well. He changes the speeds of his combinations. And after that, he throws the jab. He's always finishing with a jab. He's always hunting you down, he's moving and jab, jab, boom. He's on you. He closes the distance, and before you know it, he breaks you down and he finishes you. I could see him doing that against Tszyu.If he's going to win, that's the way he's going to win.Prediction: Just to play it safe, I think Spence will be smart enough not to take risks. Remember, he hasn't fought in three years. I think Spence is going to win a unanimous decision.
