EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsEach week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!Don't be surprised ... if St. Louis Cardinals OF Jordan Walker finishes atop the ESPN Player Rater Walker, who won this week's awesome (no, really, it was great) Home Run Derby in Philadelphia with a scathing finish to overcome Philadelphia Phillies hometown hero and DH Kyle Schwarber, is a bit more valuable in roto/categories leagues than in ESPN's standard points formats. Walker enters the second half of the season ranked fifth on ESPN's Rater, counting hitters and pitchers, while 16 players have scored more fantasy points. Why such a stark difference?Walks and strikeouts play some role, but Walker hasn't been egregious in either respect, walking at an acceptable 8.1% rate, striking out at a reasonable 24.8% mark. Walker is tied for 25th in strikeouts, and on pace for 167. That's not a big problem. Walker's power profile is obviously legitimate. He and Tampa Bay Rays 3B Junior Caminero top the field in average exit velocity this season. Caminero has hit more home runs. Until this week, however, it felt like Walker's incredible season was a bit overlooked.Well, let's look at it. This former top prospect debuted in 2023 with a solid .787 OPS over 117 games and 465 PA. He looked like a future star, but that quickly faded when he was sent back to Triple-A Memphis early in 2024. His combined big-league statistics for 2024-25 were miserable, with a .211/.270/.324 line over 162 games and 574 PA. Walker hit only 11 home runs. Though the Cardinals were still committed to him in right field, there was little reason for optimism in fantasy this season.Today Walker is arguably the top fantasy baseball free agent pickup of the season, as he went mostly ignored in ESPN standard drafts. He clubbed nine home runs during the first month of the season, adding 23 RBI, and while he cooled off and concerned his investors in June (.732 OPS, only three home runs), big production has returned in July (1.116 OPS, four home runs). Walker delivered quite the show, in front of a hostile crowd, with his easy swing, in Monday's Derby. If he continues to hit baseballs hard, and in the air, the power numbers should continue. He leads baseball in RBI.So how may Walker end up fantasy's top roto/categories option? Put simply, since he's already firmly in the No. 5 position, not much needs to occur. Those ahead of him may be just as risky to take steps backward as well. For example, Washington Nationals OF James Wood leads the Rater, and his myriad strikeouts play little role in roto formats, as they have not suppressed his batting average. Perhaps this will change. Wood has more home runs than Walker, but fewer RBI. His big advantage is in scoring runs. Walker's advantage is batting average, but he is also on pace to reach 38 home runs and 126 RBI.Walker can catch Chicago Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong and Houston Astros OF Yordan Alvarez, too. Crow-Armstrong is quite streaky, typically a batting average risk high strikeout totals. Alvarez brings durability risks, and he does not steal bases. Milwaukee Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski is the lone hurler in the five. He is enjoying an historic season, but there must be innate injury risk when anyone repeatedly throws a baseball 105 MPH. The Brewers may be careful with his workload/innings the final months. Frankly, now is a wise time to aim to trade The Miz, and other top pitchers, in fantasy, for safer hitters.As for the great Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani, he enters the second half of the season at No. 13 on the Rater. He is No. 9 for his batting numbers, and No. 5 as a pitcher. Walker obviously cannot match Ohtani's overall value due to the pitching prowess, but as a hitter ... he is ahead of him, so far. At some point, Walker may be ahead of everyone.Don't be surprised ... if a pair of other New York Yankees (not Aaron Judge) finish as top 20 fantasy hitters OF Cody Bellinger and 1B Ben Rice made a bit of history Tuesday, becoming the first pair of Yankees teammates to drive in runs in an All-Star game since 1962 (Roger Maris, Tom Tresh). Bellinger knocked in two runs in the first inning with a hard-hit single up the middle against hometown star Cristopher Sanchez, and Rice followed with a similar hit to plate the third run. That was just about all the scoring in Philadelphia. Surprise fantasy star Miguel Vargas of the Chicago White Sox closed the scoring with a late solo home run. Bellinger was awarded game MVP honors.Some may not think Bellinger is having such a great season, especially in comparison to Rice. Rice is among the home run leaders with 29, and he appeared in the Home Run Derby. Only three hitters (Alvarez, Wood, Caminero) have scored more fantasy points than Rice this season. Bellinger is currently outside the top 25 hitters, batting only .254 with 11 home runs. Many questioned if he was worthy of All-Star status for the first time since 2019.Bellinger's numbers may seem quiet, but he has outscored Nick Kurtz, Pete Alonso, Corbin Carroll and Schwarber, among many others, because of his durability (he has played in 94 of 96 Yankees games) and his excellent plate discipline. Bellinger used to be a walker in his early Los Angeles Dodgers days. His walk rate plummeted in 2022. Now it is back up to 12.7%, and he combines it with a 14.9% strikeout rate. Yes, the durable Schwarber leads the league in home runs, but a 34.8% K rate takes a toll. Bellinger has outscored him.Bellinger hit the All-Star break delivering multiple hits in three of four games, and with nary a strikeout in that span. Sure, we would like to see more power from a player who hit 29 home runs last season, and once hit 47 blasts in an MVP season, but perhaps a power surge is pending. After all, Bellinger's best month historically is August, with 51 home runs and 163 RBI in 925 PA. His career August .827 OPS ranks behind only March/April for him.The Yankees have struggled to score runs sans Judge, but as one of the game's top sluggers nears a return from a rib injury, now is the time to invest in the top of this lineup. Bellinger finished 10th among all hitters in fantasy points last season. Perhaps he can approach that stardom again with a big second half.Don't be surprised ... if Washington Nationals LHP Foster Griffin leads all rookies in fantasy points We admit to not discussing Griffin a whole lot this season because, well, who expected this fellow to hit the All-Star break with a 10-2 record, 2.77 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, with nearly a strikeout per inning, for one of the worst pitching staffs in the sport? Griffin isn't a typical rookie, either. He is 30, a first-round pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2014, and he resurrected his flailing career in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants. The Nationals gave him a one-year contract for $5.5 million. If the Dodgers or Yankees thought Griffin would be formidable, he would have received more money and more years.Incredibly, Griffin ranks sixth in pitcher fantasy points this season, edging past All-Stars Chase Burns, Max Meyer and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and he is showing no signs of decline. Griffin has permitted one run or fewer (earned or not earned) in his past seven outings, winning four of them. He fanned nine hitters in three of his past four starts. Griffin started the season wonderfully, posting a 2.67 ERA through April. May was not as kind, with a 4.86 ERA, and eight home runs in six starts. Performance like this seemed more reasonable, and avoidable for investors.Well, the awesome Misiorowski boasts a ridiculous 1.57 ERA since June 1. We all know him. Griffin, however, can top that. He leads baseball with a 1.25 ERA (seven starts) in that span. It isn't a fluke, either. It is quite possible that in a season in which so many expected Pittsburgh Pirates SS Konnor Griffin to dominate and rightfully earn NL Rookie of the Year honors, another, older player with the surname Griffin achieves this honor!Fantasy managers, just like real MLB teams, had reasons for skepticism this past winter. Griffin was great in Japan, but pitchers do not throw nearly as hard there. Griffin averages 91.5 MPH with his fastball. Let's just say the other leaders in ERA and fantasy points easily top that. There are 21 pitchers with at least 250 ESPN fantasy points. Griffin is the only one rostered in fewer than 82% of leagues. C'mon, fantasy managers! It's mid-July and Griffin has made 19 starts. Remove an aberrant nine-run outing in Cincinnati and his ERA falls to 2.12! Rely on this fellow!Finally, eight pitchers boast a sub-2.00 ERA since June 1. It hardly means all or any of them will continue their success, but quite a few are readily available. After Griffin and Misiorowski, the list is Baltimore Orioles LHP Trevor Rogers (1.73 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays RHP Dylan Cease (1.73), San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray (1.84), Miami Marlins RHP Max Meyer (1.96), Detroit Tigers RHP Troy Melton (1.96) and Boston Red Sox RHP Sonny Gray (1.97). Are a few of these fellows readily available in your leagues?
