EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsThere's a very real possibility that a team that eventually makes the postseason does not appear below, even though this intends to serve as a road map for the trade deadline madness to come. The San Diego Padres, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Toronto Blue Jays and even a Washington Nationals team that is over .500 didn't make the cut -- and that is fine, because over the next 25 days, the mess will sort itself out. Or at least force teams to make painful decisions.In the meantime, the primer ahead -- the best trade match for each team as well as a dream match that in most cases is farfetched but depends on how those next 3 weeks go -- identifies teams' areas of need and optimal solutions. Trade talks are percolating and will pick up following the draft and All-Star Game. For now, this offers a sense of where things stand and where they could go.American LeagueTampa Bay Rays54-36, first place AL East, No. 1 seedWeakness: Top-of-the-lineup impactBest match: Luis Arrez, 2B, San Francisco GiantsDream match: Jeremy Pea, SS, Houston AstrosThe Rays have settled into a lineup with Yandy Daz at leadoff, Jonathan Aranda hitting second and Junior Caminero in the 3-hole. The three rank in the top 25 in MLB in on-base percentage -- the Rays are the only team with more than two players in that group -- and are carrying an offense that otherwise features just two bats with offensive numbers better than league average (Jonny DeLuca and Ryan Vilade).Upgrading the offense, then, is a priority for Tampa Bay, and to do so with someone like Arrez checks just about every box. He rarely strikes out, right in line with the Rays' MLB-best 18.9% K rate. He's got a .327 batting average, second in baseball. He gets on 36% of the time, perfect to slot in atop the lineup and offer Daz, Aranda and Caminero more RBI opportunities. Best of all, Arrez has gone from liability at second base to above average, capable of filling a true spot of need for the Rays.Houston is not inclined to move Pea -- yet -- and though Taylor Walls does play a mean shortstop defensively, his lack of pop leaves room for an upgrade if at some point the Astros do decide to deal Pea before he hits free agency following the 2027 season.Chicago White Sox47-44, first place AL Central, No. 2 seedWeakness: Starting pitching depthBest match: Reid Detmers, LHSP, Los Angeles AngelsDream match: Reid Detmers, LHSP, Los Angeles AngelsWith Munetaka Murakami's return from a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for six weeks imminent, the White Sox find themselves in a tremendous position. They have actually gained four games in the standings since Murakami got hurt and now are primed to add a premier slugger to a lineup that's finally at full strength.Which makes pitching even more of a priority. Davis Martin has been All-Star worthy. Sean Burke is a solid midrotation arm. Anthony Kay is a perfectly solid back-end type. But the White Sox need a dude. And Detmers, the 27-year-old who isn't a free agent until after the 2028 season, is an ideal fit. Don't let his 4.13 ERA fool you. The stuff is premium, the strikeouts are plentiful and the ability to carve good lineups is vital for any potential White Sox playoff run.At the same time, while Detmers is Chicago's best match, he's also a dream because it's unclear if Angels owner Arte Moreno will allow interim general manager John Mozeliak to trade any players with multiple years of club control. He should. The Angels need a face-lift, tummy tuck and 1,000 units of Botox. And the White Sox offer prospect optionality to fill a woebegone Angels system. Want an elite middle-infield glove? Billy Carlson is there. Exceptional bat-to-ball skills? William Bergolla can be had. Huge potential? Noah Schultz, come on down. The fit makes too much sense for both sides not to make it a reality.Seattle Mariners47-46, first place AL West, No. 3 seedWeakness: Right-handed batBest match: Taylor Ward, OF, Baltimore OriolesDream match: Willson Contreras, 1B/DH, Boston Red SoxThe Mariners already have two of the 10 best right-handed-hitting outfielders in Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena. Their desire for another is as much a function of a crowded infield -- Josh Naylor, Cole Young, Colt Emerson, J.P. Crawford and, when he returns from injury, Brendan Donovan -- as anything. The big issue: There aren't very many good right-handed-hitting outfielders, let alone ones available on the trade market.Ward is the best of the likely accessible bunch, and he is a completely different player than the 36-homer slugger last year. Only Mike Trout, Nick Kurtz and James Wood have higher walk rates than Ward's 16.5%. With Rob Refsnyder's failure to serve as the right side of a platoon and neither Victor Robles nor Buddy Kennedy the answer, Ward's on-base ability and relative lack of strikeouts would be an improvement.The most meaningful upgrade would come from Contreras, who has been one of the 10 best hitters in baseball this season. At the same time, the Mariners taking an already-crowded first-base/DH situation and adding Contreras would put pressure aplenty on manager Dan Wilson to navigate playing time and egos. Compound that with Contreras' ability to block any trade and this is the sort of dream that will be tricky to manifest in reality.New York Yankees50-42, second place AL East, No. 4 seedWeakness: Catching, left side of infieldBest match: Ryan Jeffers, C, Minnesota TwinsDream match: Hunter Goodman, C, Colorado RockiesAs middling as the left side of New York's infield looks, the catching situation this year has been a cauldron of doom. Yankees catchers this year are hitting .175/.252/.254. Austin Wells has the worst batting average and slugging percentage of any hitter with at least 200 plate appearances. There are no capable backups. It is a problem.Though the market for catchers is thin, Minnesota could entertain moving Jeffers, an impending free agent, regardless of how well it is positioned.. And between the much-needed right-handed balance and his production, he suits the Yankees perfectly. Even better, considering the Yankees have no ready-made prospect slated to take over behind the plate, is the 26-year-old Goodman, whose 27 home runs rank third in MLB.With three more years of club control beyond this season, Goodman would require a haul. He doesn't walk much and strikes out plenty, the latter already an issue for New York. But for a Yankees team with a real shot at winning the AL this year, letting perfect be the enemy of good is dangerous, and if they can get Goodman, they should.Cleveland Guardians47-46, second place AL Central, No. 5 seedWeakness: Outfield, powerBest match: Mickey Moniak, OF, Colorado RockiesDream match: Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee BrewersAfter a promising start, Cleveland's offense has regressed badly over the last six weeks, scoring a major league-worst 123 runs in 34 games. (For context, Colorado leads MLB with 225 in that span.) Spending four of those weeks without star third baseman Jose Ramrez certainly doesn't help, nor does Chase DeLauter going homerless the entire span, but then offensive issues aren't anything new to Cleveland.Having so many bat-to-ball maestros -- Ramrez, DeLauter, Brayan Rocchio and Steven Kwan -- gives the Guardians the leeway to stomach a hitter for whom plate discipline is not a calling card. And that would be Moniak, the former No. 1 pick who is one of two players in MLB this year with at least 200 plate appearances and a slugging percentage of .600 or better. The other? Yordan Alvarez, the AL MVP favorite.The Rockies aren't certain to move Moniak; he has another year of club control. Similarly, the Brewers aren't shopping Mitchell. With Luis Lara's promotion, though, they've now got a center fielder under long-term contract, and with Milwaukee's depth in the outfield -- Lara, Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, plus Jett Williams and Josh Adamczewski nearly big league-ready -- Cleveland has a good enough farm system to tempt the Brewers into moving Mitchell.Texas Rangers46-46, second place AL West, No. 6 seedWeakness: Back of rotation, catchingBest match: Trevor Rogers, LHSP, Baltimore OriolesDream match: Dalton Rushing, C, Los Angeles DodgersThe Rangers again find themselves in the dreaded in-between. Though the team is as of now in position to make the postseason, Texas knows how deceiving a record around .500 can be, lulling you into a false sense of security. Whether the Rangers proceed with caution or, as they are often inclined to, act aggressively is one of the major questions of the deadline and will likely depend on what the standings look like come August.Unless they collapse, an arm like Rogers would suit them well. Because he's slated to hit free agency this winter, Rogers won't cost as much as controllable starting pitching. And after a miserable first two months, Rogers has hit his stride since June dawned, posting a 1.77 ERA over six starts. Add Rogers to a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, MacKenzie Gore and Kumar Rocker and it's one of the best in the big leagues.Long term, the Rangers would love to address their catching needs. And while by no means are the Dodgers shopping Rushing, they've got Will Smith at catcher and some guy at DH, and opportunities will be limited for the foreseeable future. Were Rushing to move, the Rangers wouldn't be the only ones interested. (Imagine that left-handed swing at Yankee Stadium.) But president of baseball operations Chris Young loves fiery players, and the fit goes well beyond need.Houston Astros46-49, third place AL West, 1 games back of final wild cardWeakness: Left-handed hitting outfield batBest match: Jake McCarthy, OF, ColoradoDream match: Daulton Varsho, OF, TorontoThe Astros have clawed their way back into playoff contention -- and it still has done little to dissuade rival executives from trying to scavenge their major league roster. Owner Jim Crane, in the meantime, has shown little desire to punt on 2026, and general manager Dana Brown accordingly is seeking to address their clearest frailty: outfield, particularly from the left side.McCarthy, acquired from Arizona over the winter, is part of a hefty jam in Colorado's outfield. Among him, Moniak, rookie Cole Carrigg and Troy Johnston -- not to mention injured center fielder Brenton Doyle and top prospect Charlie Condon -- the Rockies have room to move at least one bat. Selling high on McCarthy -- slashing .303/.344/.513 with nine home runs, 14 stolen bases and two more years of club control -- would be canny.Varsho's inclusion here is more a reflection of the current standings than any desire from Toronto to offload players. One bonanza week and the Blue Jays could be right back in the postseason mix. As it stands, however, they are faced with a very difficult choice if things don't change: One season after nearly winning the World Series, is their mediocre first half going to prompt them to move their free agents-to-be?Minnesota Twins46-47, third place AL Central, game back of final wild cardWeakness: Starting pitchingBest match: Foster Griffin, LHSP, Washington NationalsDream match: Kevin Gausman, RHSP, Toronto Blue JaysAnother surprising team -- and one, like the Astros, whose ownership could dictate its posture as the deadline approaches. Tom Pohlad, in his introductory news conference as the Twins' control person, called himself a "go-big-or-go-home guy." Of course, a record around .500 typically does not call for go-big-or-go-home maneuvering, but here the Twins find themselves anyway.Their big last July was one of the largest teardowns in trade deadline history. With Byron Buxton saying he doesn't want to go anywhere, that settles things some. And knowing they can always move Joe Ryan this winter, Minnesota endeavoring to add before the deadline isn't entirely irresponsible. Particularly if the Twins keep their targets reasonable, like the 30-year-old Griffin, who has returned from Japan and posted a 2.87 ERA thanks to a seven-pitch mix.If Toronto does wind up dumping its impending free agents, Minnesota adding Gausman to Ryan and Taj Bradley in a three-game wild-card series certainly would play. At the same time, the Twins' front office understands that pouring too much into a team that last saw .500 on April 22 would be questionable at best and folly at worst.National LeagueLos Angeles Dodgers61-33, first place NL West, No. 1 seedWeakness: Uhhhhh ...Best match: Tarik Skubal, LHSP, Detroit TigersDream match: Tarik Skubal, LHSP, Detroit TigersSorry. Of all the teams to get by far the best player on the market, did it really have to be the two-time defending champions that feature the most talented player in the game's history and a payroll that dwarfs almost every other team? Maybe not, but there are two realities at play here: The Dodgers have the sort of farm system Detroit would love to raid, and adding Skubal to a rotation that includes Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell would make them damn near unassailable.Other teams need Skubal more, certainly, but that's of little concern to the Dodgers. They've positioned themselves, as much through their astute dealings as their financial advantages, to bully the game. So while they could nibble around the margins like they did at the last deadline, the opportunity to not only add Skubal to their rotation but prevent the chance of having to face him in a crucial game is tantalizing.Is it enough to part with a big league-ready arm and a top outfield prospect? The Dodgers don't necessarily like making deals with negative expected value in their model, but if the price for another banner amounts to a rounding error for a franchise generating more than a billion dollars in revenue annually, so be it.Milwaukee Brewers58-34, first place NL Central, No. 2 seedWeakness: Playoff-caliber starting pitchingBest match: Clay Holmes, RHSP, New York MetsDream match: Joe Ryan, RHSP, Minnesota TwinsThe Brewers are the Dodgers without dollars. Their player-development system hums like it was German engineered. Their big league club is deep, well-rounded and knows how to win. The Brewers are good enough that if they wanted to, they could deal away big leaguers and not be much worse for the wear. David Stearns walked so Matt Arnold could run.The limitations, mind you, are real, even if they are self-imposed, and the Brewers face the sort of conundrum that has vexed small-market, low-revenue teams for generations now: When do you abandon the careful, process-oriented planning that bred success and act like a big-market franchise? Milwaukee did it almost 20 years ago, acquiring CC Sabathia. Is now finally the time again?If so, Holmes, returning from a broken right leg, would be more than they did last deadline, when their acquisitions were a reliever who threw 9.2 innings before getting hurt, a backup catcher and a reserve outfielder. Ryan, though, would offer the sort of rotation stability they could use with Brandon Woodruff and Logan Henderson hurt. With Arnold's win-now dictate, it's increasingly unlikely. But if beginning the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium is the Brewers' fate, a Jacob Misiorowski-Joe Ryan pairing for Games 1 and 2 is as close to good as a team can get.Atlanta Braves53-38, first place NL East, No. 3 seedWeakness: Healthy starting pitchingBest match: Freddy Peralta, RHSP, New York MetsDream match: CJ Abrams, SS, Washington NationalsOver the past six weeks, the Braves' offense has reverted to the 2024 and '25 versions of itself: plenty of name value, limited production. Atlanta's rotation, however, remains the priority, and while Hurston Waldrep is back, AJ Smith-Shawver on his way and JR Ritchie available to board the Gwinnett train and pitch when necessary, the Braves desire something more certain.And even if certainty isn't exactly what Freddy Peralta has provided for the Mets this season, there's enough history there for Atlanta to treat him as the upgrade he would be. Maybe it's Peralta, and maybe it's Michael Wacha, and maybe it's one of a dozen other starting pitchers available. Whatever the Braves choose, their needs happen to align with the market's clear strength, and there are fewer sure bets at this deadline than Atlanta getting a starting pitcher.Of all the dream trades, Abrams going to Atlanta in an intradivision deal is the unlikeliest, even if he would stop Truist Park's revolving door at shortstop. Between Jorge Mateo and Mauricio Dubon, the Braves have cobbled together a decent-enough bulwark at shortstop to make up for Ha-Seong Kim's disappearing act. Still, with Tate Southisene and Alex Lodise still in A ball, there are no long-term solutions in the offing, and at some point Atlanta will do what it takes to ensure that revolving door gets locked.Chicago Cubs52-40, second place NL Central, No. 4 seedWeakness: ArmsBest match: Casey Mize, RHSP, Detroit TigersDream match: Sonny Gray, RHSP, Boston Red SoxDavid Peterson hasn't exactly been a savior for the Cubs, yielding a dozen runs in two starts, and yet they've kept winning and pushing their way to the top of the wild-card standings thanks to an offense that after going AWOL for a month returned with aplomb. That hasn't lessened Chicago's need for high-end pitching if it wants any shot at a deep run in October.And that's why the two names linked to the team are both front-of-the-rotation types. Even if all of the Cubs' options return healthy, there isn't an ace among them. And while Mize and Gray, even at their best, are more like No. 2s, they are cut from the same high-strikeout, low-walk, limited-homer cloth and feature ERAs a point-and-a-half lower than any of the Cubs' regular rotation players.Mize's availability depends on the Tigers' viability. If they keep winning and believe they're legitimate playoff contenders, he could stay. Gray's is complicated by no-trade protection as well as a hefty sum: $10 million in salary, plus $10 million on a buyout for a mutual option. Tack on the penalty for exceeding the luxury tax, and it would be even more costly. Altogether, with financial and prospect cost, it's the sort of thing that could very easily scare away Cubs owner Tom Ricketts from pursuing Gray at all.Philadelphia Phillies51-42, second place NL East, No. 5 seedWeakness: OutfieldBest match: Jung Hoo Lee, OF, San Francisco GiantsDream match: Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota TwinsTell me if you've heard this one before: The Phillies need outfield help. Brandon Marsh serving as Aramis to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper's Athos and Porthos has been a nice development, but Justin Crawford hasn't been the answer, Adolis Garcia is out for the season and Derek Hill has never consistently hit enough to be a long-term solution.With three more years and $63 million left on his deal, the 27-year-old Lee isn't cheap. But with $35 million set to come off the Phillies' books this winter, at the very least it would address an area that doesn't have a whole lot in the way of free agent solutions. Arozarena, Ian Happ and Varsho are the best outfielders in the coming class.Lee's low-strikeout, high-average approach is perhaps the best Philadelphia can do so long as Buxton isn't going anywhere. There might not be a better fit between team need and player than the Phillies and Buxton, but with him controlling where he plays next and seemingly having no desire to go elsewhere, it's moot enough that time spent on pursuing a deal is, at this point, a waste.Miami Marlins51-42, third place NL East, No. 6 seedWeakness: Back-end relief helpBest match: Aroldis Chapman, LHRP, Boston Red SoxDream match: Josh Hader, LHRP, Houston AstrosSo, yeah, the Marlins are legitimately good. They've got a lineup that's better than league average almost top to bottom -- and significantly so, in the case of Otto Lopez, Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards and Kyle Stowers. With Cam Cannarella destroying Double-A, they've got plenty of depth, too. Another starting pitcher would be helpful, yes, but Eury Perez's return has stabilized the rotation enough that complementing what they've got with a big relief arm could be the biggest value-add possible.Chapman is almost certainly going to be traded, and though the Marlins' bullpen features plenty of capable right-handed arms -- from Pete Fairbanks to Anthony Bender to Lake Bachar to Tyler Phillips to Michael Peterson to Calvin Faucher to rookie William Kempner -- the lone lefty is John King.And as good as King has been this season, bringing Chapman to Miami would infuse the Marlins with the sort of stuff King simply doesn't possess. Hader is a dream because the Astros don't intend to move him, and the Marlins, with the lowest CBT payroll in baseball, are not likely to spend their limited resources on a $19 million-a-year one-inning reliever. The solution, then, could be A.J. Minter or Brooks Raley, and any additions by the Marlins, frankly, are promising.St. Louis Cardinals48-43, third place NL Central, two games back of final wild cardWeakness: Rotation depthBest match: Robbie Ray, LHSP, San Francisco GiantsDream match: Logan Gilbert, RHSP, Seattle MarinersSt. Louis has faded some in recent weeks, and even if the Cardinals do get hot again and jump back into position to secure a playoff spot, there's unlikely to be a big move that titillates fans. Which is to be expected: Teams don't hire Chaim Bloom to run baseball operations and expect him to deviate from a plan that is in its early stages of execution.At the same time, success can persuade front offices to act out of character, and these Cardinals have made a good case. They've reengaged a fanbase that had grown weary. They've developed an enviable core of JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson. Their rotation, however, remains a real question mark -- and is putting a huge onus on a bullpen that might just tire out by the time September rolls around.As good as Ray has been lately, the Cardinals might instead opt for a less costly option who can gobble innings and help save the pen. The Mariners have zero intention of moving Gilbert, who has been their best starter, but with free agency beckoning after the 2027 season and Kade Anderson big league-ready and Ryan Sloan not far behind, it's worth bookmarking his name as a potential trade candidate going forward -- particularly for a team like St. Louis that's bound to devote more resources to winning next year.Pittsburgh Pirates47-46, fourth place NL Central, three games back of final wild cardWeakness: Right-handed relief pitchingBest match: Garrett Whitlock, RHRP, Boston Red SoxDream match: Luke Weaver, RHRP, New York MetsThe torn tendon in rookie Konnor Griffin's ring finger expected to sideline him for two months is an utter gut punch. The Pirates were eagerly anticipating first baseman Spencer Horwitz coming off the IL and the August return of Oneil Cruz to supercharge one of baseball's best offenses. Instead, they can only hope they're still in the playoff mix come the deadline.Pittsburgh's desire to win now is understandable. It's been a decade, and even then, the Pirates didn't have the ceiling they do now. At the same time, the rash of injuries could mitigate the urgency to pay significantly for rentals, which leaves the two bullpen options on multiyear deals.Neither will come cheap. Whitlock is a consistently solid relief arm. Weaver has been near unhittable amid the Mets' flop this year. Either would offer an alternative for manager Don Kelly to use in the ninth inning alongside -- or instead of -- Gregory Soto. And with the Pirates' best reliever this year, Evan Sisk, hitting the injured list with elbow issues, they're on the hunt for help -- and could be a team that tries to strike a deal sooner than later.
