EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsWIMBLEDON, England -- The crowd knew before the match was over.After dismantling world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the first set, Naomi Osaka had just taken a 5-1 lead in the second-set tiebreak. Those in attendance on Centre Court for the much-anticipated fourth-round match roared.An excited hum then filled the stands.History had clearly stated it wasn't supposed to go this way. Sabalenka, a four-time major champion, had reached the quarterfinals or better in her previous 14 major appearances. She had won all three of her meetings with Osaka this season, including at last month's French Open. Sabalenka, 28, had won 21 consecutive tiebreaks at majors -- the longest streak in the Open era -- and hadn't been on the losing end since the French Open in 2023. She hadn't lost in straight sets at a Slam since the US Open six years ago.And, not to mention, especially with the early exits of defending champion Iga Swiatek and 2022 champion and world No. 2 Elena Rybakina, Sabalenka was the overwhelming favorite to claim the title and secure her first non-hard-court Slam trophy.Osaka, while also a four-time major champion, was playing in the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time, and she had never recorded a win on Centre Court, nor had she ever defeated a top-10 player at a non-hard-court tournament.But none of that mattered. Osaka, a vision of serenity throughout the tightest of moments, remained focused. And moments later, she secured the 6-2, 7-6 (2) win and her place in the quarterfinals. Osaka, 28, jumped in celebration -- her first sign of emotion for much of the day -- and those in the stands jumped to their feet with her."It's been a long time since I've had so much fun on the court and to do it here it really means a lot," Osaka said on court. "I mean going into this match, I lost to her like three times in a row so that really sucked. So I wanted to turn it [around] and I'm really glad I had the opportunity to do that."Minutes after exchanging a warm hug at the net, Sabalenka -- still dressed in her match clothes and with the sweat still visible on her face -- was speaking to reporters."I didn't play my best, and she played probably her best," Sabalenka said. "Sometimes that happens. Sometimes you can go out there and do everything you can and still lose the match. Obviously I'm not really happy."So, what exactly happened at the All England Club? And what does it mean for the rest of the tournament? Let's break it down.How did Osaka pull off the upset?Although Sabalenka is a three-time semifinalist at Wimbledon and nearly made her first final last year before being defeated by Amanda Anisimova in a heartbreaker, Osaka has also been playing well on the grass this season.After previously struggling on the surface and never advancing beyond the third round at Wimbledon, Osaka made her first grass-court final last week at Bad Homburg, a 500-level event. She had to retire from the match as a precaution with a foot injury but arrived in London with momentum and confidence on her side.Through her four matches at the event, she is yet to drop a set. She has lost just one set on grass this season.Osaka took control early, breaking Sabalenka in just the third game of the match. She was relentless in the opening set, led by her strong serve and dictating the points with her flat and powerful groundstrokes."I can only focus on my strengths," Osaka later told reporters. "I just tried to serve really well because it's grass. I also tried to get the upper hand in the rallies first. That just happened to work really well today."Osaka said she tried not to focus on the score and instead focused point by point. She explained that during their previous meeting in Madrid this year, she had won the first set and then had become too fixated on closing it out -- and didn't want to make the same mistake again. On Sunday, Osaka tried to pretend it was a practice session."I was just telling myself, like, 'There's a really big crowd for this practice match,'" she said jokingly.Sabalenka, who left the court after the lopsided first set, raised her level in the second and the two traded service games until the tiebreaker. But while Sabalenka won the first point, it was all Osaka after that. She took the lead behind an ace -- she had eight in the match -- and Sabalenka then rattled off a series of errors. After an hour and 28 minutes of play, Osaka earned the win, and Sabalenka was left wondering how she let yet another opportunity slip away.It was Osaka's first win over a world No. 1 since defeating Ashleigh Barty in 2019, and arguably her biggest victory since coming back from maternity leave at the start of the 2024 season.What does it mean for Osaka and the rest of the upset-riddled tournament?Much like the men's draw at Roland Garros this season, the Wimbledon women's title feels more wide open than ever now that the top three seeds and all of the previous champions have been eliminated.In fact, with the fourth round still in action, Jasmine Paolini is the only woman left who has ever even reached the final. She plays for a spot in the quarterfinals on Monday. Jessica Pegula, who advanced to the last eight at the All England Club for the second time earlier Sunday, is the top seed remaining at No. 4. She will play two-time major champion Coco Gauff on Tuesday.As for Osaka, the No. 14 seed, she will play No. 10 Karolina Muchova, now a three-time quarterfinalist, as both look to advance to their first Wimbledon semifinal. Muchova had a 6-1, 1-0 lead over Osaka in the Bad Homburg final before Osaka stopped the match. They have a 3-3 career head-to-head record, and Osaka defeated Muchova in the US Open quarterfinals in September."She's a really, really amazing player, obviously," Osaka said. "I think whenever I've played her, it's been really tough matches."I feel like you can only prepare so much, and the rest of it is just doing your best and going out there and seeing what happens. So from my end, that's kind of what I'm going to do, and hopefully that works."The other half of the draw, which plays its fourth-round matches on Monday, is even more unpredictable. Ninth-seeded Linda Noskova is the highest-seeded player left. She will play Madison Keys, the only player remaining in the bottom half of the draw who has won a major title.No matter what happens on either side of the draw, it will be the ninth consecutive Wimbledon to feature a first-time women's champion.What's next for Sabalenka?Sabalenka was visibly disappointed on court after the match and when speaking to reporters.After losing in the quarterfinals at the French Open to Diana Shnaider last month, she said she wanted to quit tennis and has since said it took a few days to get out of that mental space. But on Sunday, she took a lighter tone. "No emotions," she said.Still, she admitted how upset she was with her performance and the result."Obviously I'm not happy with the way I played, but yeah, she overpowered me," Sabalenka said. "I felt like it was an incredible level from her. I tried my best."She vowed to do better next season and indicated, like she had after her Wimbledon exit in 2025, that she would take some time away and then refocus."I just want to go, get completely drunk, forget about tennis, and try to get in better shape," she said.And believe it or not, that strategy worked well last season. Last summer she took a break ahead of the hard-court season, which included a lengthy beach vacation in Mykonos, and then returned in August and won the title at the US Open.
