EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsFIFA has always had a cheat code. It knows the more soccer it gives us, the more we'll love it -- and the more it can then get away with. Soccer is an endless resource of entertainment, and sure enough, you could make the case that in the early going, the biggest, priciest World Cup has been the best one yet.Whatever you like, this one has had in abundance.You like it when the stars shine? Well, Lionel Messi just recorded his first World Cup hat trick, and Kylian Mbapp, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland (among many others) all looked spectacular out of the gate. Even Mohamed Salah showed up when Egypt needed him most in their second group game.You like it when new players come out of the blue to become part of World Cup lore? Say hello to Cape Verde's Vozinha (a star versus Spain) and Curacao's Eloy Room (tied a World Cup record versus Ecuador).You like it when the favorites look like world-beaters for solid stretches of time? You must have really enjoyed those first games from France, England, Germany and (especially) Argentina.You like it when the supposed minnows take points off of the heavyweights? Cape Verde's draw with Spain and Congo DR's draw with Portugal must have sent shivers down your spine.- World Cup match schedule: All fixtures, results, features- World Cup 2026: How teams can advance to the knockout rounds- Breaking down World Cup's first 100 goals: How and when were they scored?Having more teams means having more stories to follow and more players to get to know. It also means more teams in the knockout rounds, so let's stop wasting time.An incredible 32 teams will take part in the World Cup knockout rounds, which begin Sunday in Los Angeles. Let's talk about why every single one of them could win this thing (and why they probably won't).(Note: As the group stage continues to play out, we'll fill this list with either teams that have clinched advancement to the knockout rounds or teams with at least four points in the group stage, as it's almost mathematically certain that they also will advance. All round-of-32 matchups are projected based on current standings: We will update this page with those likely matchups too as the bracket takes shape. Also, Opta odds will be updated with every update as more teams qualify.)JUMP TO: Brazil | Canada | Egypt | Germany | Japan | Mexico | Morocco | Netherlands | Spain | Switzerland | United StatesBRAZILTitle odds, per Opta: 5.5%Next projected opponent: Japan, June 29Why they will win it all: They still have the attacking talent. Even with the loss of Raphinha to a hamstring injury, they still have Real Madrid's Vincius Jnior (two goals and one assist thus far), they still have forwards Matheus Cunha and Igor Thiago, and they still have players like Gabriel Martinelli, Luiz Henrique, Rayan and Endrick, who have yet to get fully involved. (They also have Neymar, who's 34 years old and hurt and probably shouldn't be there, but might still have one last burst of World Cup magic in him.)Vincius Jnior salvaged the Morocco match with a single moment of brilliance, and Carlo Ancelotti might be the best manager in the world when it comes to unlocking those moments.Why they won't: You can't field 10 forwards. You need fullbacks, for one thing, and somehow Ancelotti's best options there remain Flamengo's 34-year-old Danilo and Zenit St. Petersburg's 32-year-old Douglas Santos. And for the strength that Vini Jr. & Co. possess up top, Raphinha was the closest thing to a strong pressing presence: A lack of full-team defense is putting strain on a midfield that is still asking 34-year-old Casemiro to clean up messes.They're strong at center back with Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalh�es, but while you only have so much control over the balance of your national team player pool, Brazil's has perhaps never been this unbalanced.CANADATitle odds, per Opta: 0.9%Next projected opponent: Belgium, July 3Why they will win it all: They know who they are. There can be great power in identity, and Canada's Jesse Marsch is keeping the Red Bull spirit alive.His team plays fast. They're averaging the second-most counterattack attempts in the competition (despite having had basically all of the ball against Qatar) and the most fast high-win sequences: sequences starting in the attacking third and lasting fewer than 13 seconds with fewer than six passes. They've scored three goals from high turnovers in two matches, and they've allowed the fewest progressive passes and progressive carries per game (though playing against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar probably helped keep those numbers low).They're creating quick-strike opportunities, Jonathan David and Cyle Larin are converting chances, and they could get at least two knockout matches in Vancouver, British Columbia.Why they won't: Red Bull is yesterday's news. At the club level, the full-throttle style Marsch proselytized at RB Leipzig and Leeds United has grown a little outdated, with the best clubs playing a more nuanced style capable of withstanding pressure and exploiting gaps. If they win Group B, they'll be well positioned to make a potential quarterfinal run before running into one of the big dogs (Argentina, perhaps?), but they might be able to threaten those big dogs.EGYPTTitle odds, per Opta: 0.5%Next projected opponent: Czechia, July 1Why they will win it all: Mo and the break-evens. For such a soccer-obsessed country -- seven AFCON titles, two clubs (Al Ahly and Zamalek) responsible for 17 CAF Champions League titles -- Egypt's World Cup rsum was almost blank until this year: seven total matches, two draws, five losses. They had bowed out quietly in 2018 and failed to qualify in 2022.But after matches against Belgium and New Zealand, they have four points and delightfully neutral stats: They've attempted slightly more (and slightly better) shots than their opponents, they've counterattacked with verve and they've attempted a lot of duels (and won more than 50% of them). They're breaking even. And when you're breaking even overall but have the only Mohamed Salah on the pitch, you win. Salah has a goal and two assists in 161 minutes, and Egypt are almost certainly cruising into the knockout rounds for the first time.Why they won't: Age and sprinting. Egypt simply outran New Zealand on Sunday and have indeed been one of the more successfully direct teams in the tournament. But direct play might not work against the better teams in the field, and relying on sprints and speed when your team is one of the oldest at the World Cup -- players 29 or older have accounted for 55% of their minutes, and the linchpin is the 34-year-old Salah -- doesn't seem like a wonderful combination.GERMANYTitle odds, per Opta: 6.6%Next projected opponent: Scotland, June 29Why they will win it all: Almost all the right guys are hot. Kai Havertz missed much of the season with injury, but has produced eight goals and four assists in his last 14 matches for club and country. Joshua Kimmich is serving up danger on set pieces. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala could be hotter, sure, but they've both created plenty of danger in the first two matches. And when in doubt, bring on super sub Denis Undav (three goals and two assists in 56 minutes). (Was it poor defensive positioning? Yes, but what a pass and what a touch to control it.)Midfielders Felix Nmecha and Alexsandar Pavlovic are providing the perfect combination of industry and box-crashing attack. Emerging left back Nathaniel Brown is running himself ragged, making defensive interventions, firing in accurate crosses and even scoring against Curacao. You can see why Julian Nagelsmann put together the lineup he did.Why they won't: Losses of control. From the third to the 55th minute against the U.S. in a pre-World Cup friendly, Germany were outscored 1-0 with an xG differential of minus-0.35. From the 21st to 67th minute against Ivory Coast on Saturday, they were again outscored 1-0 with an xG differential of minus-0.59.This isn't domination, but these were long periods of ineffectiveness against good-not-great teams, and it's something they can't afford against the best competition. Without defender Nico Schlotterbeck -- who was injured against Ivory Coast and might well be done for the tournament -- this vulnerability might increase.JAPANTitle odds, per Opta: 1.2%Next projected opponent: Brazil, June 29Why they will win it all: A sturdy base. Japan has played one match against an excellent possession team (Netherlands) and one match against a disaster (Tunisia). They've committed just six total high turnovers. They've averaged 7.9 passes per possession (eighth in the competition), and they're averaging the fewest total possessions per match (63.5).Even without key injured players such as Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma, Monaco's Takumi Minamino and Real Sociedad's Takefusa Kubo, they have been playing with complete control, giving opponents almost no good transition opportunities and allowing no high-quality shots. And they're getting scoring punch from Ayase Ueda (two goals, one assist) and Daichi Kamada (two goals). They're looking as good as I expected them to with that star trio.Why they won't: Man, that's a lot of firepower to lose. Ueda enjoyed a breakout season with Feyenoord, and Japan still have veterans like Celtic's Daizen Maeda and Reims' Keito Nakamura to go with the excellent midfield and defense. But if they advance deep into this tournament, the absence of their most high-level attacking talent really might begin to show.MEXICOTitle odds, per Opta: 1.5%Next projected opponent: Cape Verde, July 1Why they will win it all: Home magic. With Thursday's win over South Korea, Mexico clinched first in Group A, meaning their first two knockout round matches would both be at the legendary Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. And if things go according to plan in Group L, that second match would be against England, likely the best team in their entire quarter of the draw, in the country's biggest World Cup match in ages.Azteca was maybe their best weapon against South Africa in the opener, and while their play itself hasn't been amazing -- from an xG (and "goalkeeper errors") perspective, they were fortunate to beat South Korea -- they've defended well, and the early points have given them a chance to play their way into form.Why they won't: An underwhelming attack. Mexico have indeed neutralized opponents well, allowing no goals and shots worth a total of just 0.98 xG through two matches. But they also created few strong chances against an overwhelmed, nine-man South Africa in the first match and created far less against South Korea.In two matches, they've attempted two shots worth 0.2 xG or more. That doesn't say good things about their scoring capabilities when the level of competition increases.MOROCCOTitle odds, per Opta: 2.1%Next projected opponent: Netherlands, June 30Why they will win it all: They play like a team that can. Morocco made the 2022 World Cup semis with what amounted to an enhanced defend-and-counter approach -- they played without the ball, but still managed to create shot quality advantages, even against Portugal in the knockout rounds. About 3.5 years later, they're still providing serious threats on the counter, but they are also playing with the ball more. They had 49% possession in their opening draw with Brazil, and despite leading almost the entire match, they were at 59% against Scotland.It's another card they can play, and they have the talent to pull it off. And if they're playing better and more sophisticated ball than when they made the semis, who's to say they can't win another match or two this time?Why they won't: Do they have the bench? Through the first 60 minutes of each match thus far, Morocco have generated a plus-0.8 xG differential; they were superior in this regard against both Brazil and Scotland. But over the final 30 minutes, as substitutions began to play a role, they had to hold on for dear life, giving up better opportunities than they created both times. That's a warning sign considering the number of knockout matches you'll have to win to take the title.NETHERLANDSTitle odds, per Opta: 3.4%Next projected opponent: Morocco, June 30Why they will win it all: Did you even watch the Sweden match? It was one of the most resounding statements of the tournament thus far. Granted, Sweden is difficult to figure out -- they underachieved dramatically in qualification, but snuck in through the back door of the playoffs thanks to previous Nations League success -- but they looked formidable in their first match. And then they got crushed 5-1 by a Dutch team that had every answer. Cody Gakpo and new starter Brian Brobbey combined for four goals and an assist (Gakpo-to-Brobbey), Virgil van Dijk and the back line erased Alexander Isak and Viktor Gykeres; after establishing an early lead, the Dutch counterattacked with vigor.If you can play possession ball or counter, you have major-club talent at every level of the pitch, and you don't actually ever lose World Cup matches, what exactly are you lacking?Why they won't: It's hard to trust Ronald Koeman. The Dutch manager has always had a more regressive, conservative streak, and it might have cost his team a couple of points against Japan when he made defensive substitutions, his team gave up control of the pitch and then conceded a late tying goal. England's aggression against Croatia was a reminder that staying on the front foot might be the way to go when you have superior personnel, but Koeman isn't really the guy to do that.SPAINTitle odds, per Opta: 11.4%Next projected opponent: Austria, July 2Why they will win it all: They're Spain. It probably isn't hard to explain why the team that won the last Euros and has Lamine Yamal, Pedri and a robust set of veterans can win the World Cup. And in case their shocking 0-0 draw with Cape Verde cast any doubts, they alleviated those concerns by starting Yamal (who barely played against Cape Verde) and blowing out Saudi Arabia 4-0. They can dominate the ball, and they can likely still beat you with the speed of Yamal and Nico Williams.There's no grave weakness here. They're still Spain.Why they won't: Do they still have the Euro recipe? We should probably acknowledge that some of the key players from that Euro 2024 run aren't in the same form. Williams' presence was enormous in that run, but he has been banged up and relatively ineffective -- he has just six goals and five assists in all competitions for club and country in the last year. Meanwhile Rodri, whose brilliant play resulted in his Ballon d'Or win just weeks after the Euros, is still good, but he hasn't been the same since tearing an ACL in September 2024.It might be a little easier for them to fall into stolid possession play without a full-strength Williams or get hit on a counter without a full-strength Rodri. And it might only take one poor sequence to fall short in a five-round knockout competition.SWITZERLANDTitle odds, per Opta: 2.0%Next projected opponent: South Korea, SundayWhy they will win it all: Trust xG. Five teams have generated an xG differential of +2.0 or higher in their first two World Cup matches: Favorites Spain, England and Germany are three, and a Canada team that overwhelmed a nine-man Qatar is the fourth.The fifth? Switzerland. They manhandled Bosnia and Herzegovina far worse than Canada did, and only a run of poor finishing (they attempted shots worth 3.2 xG but scored only once) kept them from walloping (11-man) Qatar. They've generated the fourth-most xG through two matches, and they've allowed the third-lowest. Weak opponents? Absolutely. But how many other teams have struggled against supposedly weak competition in this tournament?The Swiss have major-club talent at every level, they have a lovely mix of veterans (Granit Xhaka) and youngsters (20-year-old Johan Manzambi) playing well, and they're creating far better chances than they're allowing. That's a pretty good recipe.Why they won't: Drama. This seemingly goes for just about any nation, but the negative headlines explode every time anything doesn't go well with this team. Xhaka has called out some of his younger teammates at times, and when they couldn't knock in a second goal against Qatar, their body language suggested they knew they were going to give up a late equalizer. And then they did.I'm more of a stats guy than a body language guy, but this sport requires both, and it's hard to trust this team when it comes to the latter.UNITED STATESTitle odds, per Opta: 4.7%Next projected opponent: Ecuador, July 2Why they will win it all: Everything's coming up Poch. After four straight years of injuries to major stars, the Americans are as healthy as they've ever been (even acknowledging Christian Pulisic's calf issues). They've benefited from own goals early in two straight matches. Folarin Balogun is finishing well and making things happen, and Alex Freeman has shifted into a completely new gear.Trkiye have collapsed, allowing Mauricio Pochettino to rest stars (and reset yellow cards) for the final group stage match. Belgium have underwhelmed, giving the U.S. maybe the single easiest potential path to the quarterfinals. Virtually everything that both Pochettino and U.S. fans wanted to happen has happened, and it's creating some team-of-destiny vibes. They've outscored two decent opponents by a combined 6-1, and it sure looks like they'll be full-strength when the knockout rounds start.You can't ask for much more than that.Why they won't: Defensive vulnerabilities. Early leads and outstanding first-half performances have created favorable circumstances, but it's hard to forget that when the U.S. played a run of four straight opponents in the top 15 of the FIFA rankings -- Belgium, Portugal, Senegal and Germany -- they allowed 11 combined goals. Granted, star defender Chris Richards was hurt during that stretch, but even with Richards, the U.S. suffered a total lapse in concentration and gave up a goal to Paraguay in the first World Cup match.This team is at its best when its forwards and midfielders are swarming and playing aggressively, and that style of play is naturally risky. Combine that with some poor defending on set pieces and restarts, and if or when this team gets knocked out, we probably know how it will go down.
