EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsBad breaks happen in fantasy football. Be it bad luck, bad circumstances or bad aches, not every player will meet your expectations.In 2025, eight of the top 25 players in preseason average draft position (ADP) finished with a fantasy point total at least 25% lower than projected. In 2024, six of the top 25 picks experienced similar statistical underperformance.But circumstances that caused a player to disappoint one year often boomerang the next, making that player a draft-day value. Fantasy football managers can be overly reactionary, fearful of last season's busts, and that's how Christian McCaffrey wound up as a steal with an ADP of 7.2 last season.McCaffrey was one of three 2024 busts (also Travis Etienne Jr. and Chris Olave) who completely rebounded in 2025 and scored even more points last season than what was expected from them in 2024.So who might be 2026's McCaffrey, Etienne or Olave? Let's make the call on last season's biggest busts: Was it simply a bad season, which strengthens his rebound case for this year, or a bad sign of things to come?Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders: A year after setting the rookie tight end record for fantasy points, Bowers battled knee issues that cost him five games and made him markedly inconsistent (37% of his production came in two games). While a Fernando Mendoza/Kirk Cousins quarterback partnership won't fuel bounce-back excitement, better health alone would restore Bowers' front-line status. His catch rate (73.6%), yards per route (1.84) and average depth of target (6.8 yards) were all in line with his rookie-year numbers (73.6%, 2.15 and 6.1). Make sure you're paying attention to his progress during the preseason, but ... Verdict: Bad season.Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers: Between the fractured ankle that cost him seven games and the Chargers' offensive line issues, Hampton couldn't capture any momentum during his rookie season. He did, however, finish with three 20-point fantasy performances in nine games and 15.1 fantasy points per game. The Chargers added center Tyler Biadasz and should get healthier seasons from offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Plus, Mike McDaniel's installation as offensive coordinator could do wonders for their offense (and Hampton's receiving usage). There's legitimate fantasy RB1 breakthrough potential here. Verdict: Bad season.Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals: A barrage of injuries (concussion, appendicitis, heel) hampered Harrison for most of the season, but even in its opening weeks, he again fell short of scouts' lofty expectations since his days at Ohio State. Considering Jacoby Brissett is the Cardinals' likely Week 1 quarterback, it's worth mentioning that Harrison's target share (9.0%) was glaringly down with Brissett compared to his career mark working with Kyler Murray (21.6%). Michael Wilson's second-half breakthrough steals some of Harrison's rebound thunder. Verdict: Bad sign, for 2026 at least.Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers: Foot and shoulder issues cost him seven games, and his efficiency metrics tanked from his strong rookie season in 2024. Irving experienced sizable drops in yards per carry (5.4 to 3.4), explosive-play rate (13.0% to 6.4%) and yards after contact (2.47 to 1.57). Kenneth Gainwell's arrival also clouds Irving's share of the backfield, but there's also something to be said for Gainwell's versatility and receiving chops complementing Irving's explosiveness, boosting the fantasy profile for both. For the price -- a back-end fantasy RB2 -- Irving is worth it, as long as he doesn't hit any roadblocks during his rehab. Verdict: Bad season.Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens: After extraordinary back-to-back seasons, Jackson's metrics all tumbled last season. His sack rate (9.8%) was the highest of his career, and his completion (63.6%), interception (2.3%) and off-target rates (17.3%) were all his worst since at least 2022. Hamstring and back issues contributed, though he did exceed 20 fantasy points in three of his final nine games. The Ravens have a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle but otherwise return a similar core. A healthy Jackson could challenge for the fantasy scoring lead. Verdict: Bad season.Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings: After averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game in his first five NFL seasons, Jefferson reached the 20-point plateau only once in 17 games in 2025. J.J. McCarthy's horrific quarterback play caused Jefferson to post career worsts in catch rate (59.6%), yards per route (2.01) and explosive-play rate (14.3%), though he did see a target share above 30%. Kyler Murray's acquisition represents a massive quarterback upgrade, and Jefferson's elite skill set means his best-at-the-position ceiling might be restored. Verdict: Bad season.Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders: Between his own quadriceps injury, which cost him seven games, and quarterback Jayden Daniels' ailments, McLaurin's 2025 never got off the ground. His target share shrunk to a career-worst 13.9%, and he was held beneath 15 fantasy points in all but two of his 10 games. McLaurin's yards per route (2.56) and explosive-play rate (18.4%) were competitive with his career numbers (2.05 and 19.5%), however, and new Commanders offensive coordinator David Blough has openly expressed his aim to expand his No. 1 wideout's role. A lot hinges on Daniels' return to health, but there's a lot to like here. Verdict: Bad season.Kyler Murray, QB, Vikings: His circumstances might scream "rebound," as he'll work with a deep set of pass catchers (Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson), but Murray's injury issues have become a growing concern. He has missed 30 games over the past five seasons because of ankle, wrist, hamstring, knee and foot issues, and he was a more conservative passer (career lows with 6.0 yards per attempt and 5.8-yard aDOT) when he did play last season. Murray might be in an ideal spot for a rebound, but to those who dream of a return to clear top-10 positional value, his recent returns scream ... Verdict: Bad sign.Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars: Last season's biggest bust, Thomas' career numbers working with Trevor Lawrence (21.4% target share, 1.93 yards per route, 56.6% catch rate) are noticeably beneath his 2024 rates working with now-49er Mac Jones (31.5%, 2.76 and 67.5%), and they only got worse following the Jaguars' midseason acquisition of Jakobi Meyers. Thomas' raw ability paints him as a future fantasy WR1, but with so many mouths to feed in Jacksonville, those trends cement his status as one of 2026's largest boom/bust players. Verdict: Bad sign.
