EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsIt's Memorial Day, which means something different for baseball fans than it does for most people. You are officially free to look at the MLB standings!Among MLB fans, the saying goes that you should avoid checking the standings until Memorial Day because by that point teams have finally played enough games through two months to add meaning to what we're seeing play out in every division.Your team's position in the standings today doesn't guarantee it will end the season there, of course, but there is something to the concept: According to Elias Sports Bureau data, 59% of teams (102 of 172) that were in sole possession of first place on the morning of June 1 have gone on to win their division in the wild-card era (since 1995, excluding 2020).We asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield to look at this year's standings and weigh in on what stands out most.What stands out most when you look at the standings?Olney: Everybody is talking about the mediocrity of the American League -- mediocrity, actually, might be too polite of a description -- and how that will keep teams in play down the stretch.The Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and others are off to horrific starts, but what Baltimore pitcher Chris Bassitt said recently about his team is exactly right for a number of AL clubs: The O's are still in play, sitting just 2 games out in the race for the third wild card.Passan: The number of low-payroll teams at the top and the number of high-payroll teams at the bottom. A look at the 10 best and worst teams by record reveals a very interesting fact: Their payrolls are almost identical. The 10 best teams in MLB this season are spending a combined $1.89 billion on players. The 10 worst teams in MLB this season are spending a combined $1.90 billion on players. Three of the 10 best teams -- the Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals and Cleveland Guardians -- are carrying sub-$100 million payrolls, while just one of the bottom 10 (the Miami Marlins) are. There are five teams at $200 million-plus among the top 10 but only three in the bottom 10. Lower that threshold by just $5 million, though, and the Red Sox and San Francisco Giants join the New York Mets, Houston Astros and Tigers among the underachievers.Schoenfield: The Rays. Through the first month of the season, the consensus view was that the New York Yankees looked as if they would run away with the AL. The Rays were 12-11 through April 21, not looking much different from the preseason predictions that saw them as the consensus last-place team in a tough AL East. Since then, they've looked nearly unbeatable in going 22-5. They allowed just 679 runs over those 27 games, giving up two or fewer runs 17 times. Suddenly, they have a comfortable lead in the division over the Yankees.Which team is the biggest disappointment?Passan: There are a half-dozen perfectly reasonable answers. The Mets, Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Orioles -- even the Seattle Mariners. The proper answer is the Detroit Tigers. They were strong favorites to win the AL Central after holding onto Tarik Skubal, who is heading into free agency, and signing Framber Valdez to go alongside him this past winter. They put Kevin McGonigle on the Opening Day roster and signed him to a massive extension. Everything was coming up Tigers. Then the losing started.They were 18-17 on May 3. The Tigers announced Skubal was undergoing elbow surgery the following day, and three weeks later, they're 21-33. Skubal will be back sooner than had been expected thanks to a new procedure, and Detroit still is in the Central, which doesn't hurt. But the hole is deep, and if it gets any deeper, the climb out is too steep -- and the question becomes whether Skubal will get moved at the trade deadline.Rogers: Pound-for-pound, the Mariners rank as a major disappointment considering two factors: They were a game away from the World Series last year and they're playing in a really, really mediocre AL West. There's a version of their season that could have gone like this: The Mariners are a fully formed team now, with both experience and the disappointment of last season, which fuels them to a runaway 2026 campaign. That version would have them up high in the division, like the Atlanta Braves are in the National League East. Instead, Cal Raleigh is bad and hurt. There are a bunch of other guys hitting below .200, and Seattle's vaunted pitching staff isn't getting it done enough in high-leverage moments. The funny thing is there's a good chance the Mariners still will run away with the division. It just hasn't come close to happening yet.Doolittle: I'd go with Seattle. First, there is expectation: With a very complete roster and a strong near miss in the 2025 pennant race, the Mariners seemed poised to take another step forward. Second, there is the landscape in the AL West: exceedingly mediocre. At the individual level, you have Raleigh's 63 OPS+ and Luis Castillo's 60 ERA+, but those are just the headliners among several underachieving stars in Seattle. The Mariners are still the AL West favorites in my book, but they blew a golden opportunity to seize control of the division early.Of the six NL teams currently in the playoff field, which are least likely to be there in October?Passan: The Cardinals. They have far exceeded expectations, and among JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Ivn Herrera and Alec Burleson, they've got an enviable lineup quartet. At the end of the day, it's hard to pick a team dead last in strikeout rate by pitchers to make the postseason, though. And considering the Cardinals are very unlikely to upgrade significantly at the trade deadline -- even if they're ahead of schedule in their rebuild, new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom is not the sort to deal high-caliber prospects -- this is a team with regression written all over it.Gonzalez: It's the Cardinals for all the reasons Jeff pointed out. But it's also worth bringing up the San Diego Padres, who have massive concerns that need to be addressed. One will probably have to be fixed externally. With Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta out for an undetermined period of time, their rotation lacks the legitimate front-line arms every contending team must possess. It will be up to general manager A.J. Preller to fix that before the trade deadline. The other is internal. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. are San Diego's three best hitters, and they're off to terrible starts. If that doesn't correct itself, the Padres could be just as vulnerable as the Cardinals.Rogers: It's the Padres. Ask yourself, how does the team that ranks near last in OPS and outside the top 10 in ERA have such a good record? It's because they're hitting and pitching in the clutch at such a high level that there is bound to be regression -- especially at the plate. San Diego's numbers on the mound are also skewed by star closer Mason Miller. His stats count, of course, but what if it gets harder to get him the ball? Then his presence, and impact, will get mitigated. Lucas Giolito could be the difference-maker if he keeps it up -- before him, the starting staff was hanging on by a thread. It's always possible the Padres will keep it up, but a team that is 10 games over .500 with just a plus-6 run differential should give some pause.Of the six AL teams currently in the playoff field, which are least likely to be there in October?Olney: It's hard to imagine the Minnesota Twins holding on to a playoff position given the roster challenges and the likely emergence of other contenders from the bog -- most notably the Mariners. Seattle has installed Colt Emerson, soon it will get Raleigh back, and it's figuring out what to do with Castillo and the rotation glut. And sometime this summer, talented lefty Kade Anderson will be summoned to the big leagues, and he could be a significant weapon coming out of the bullpen.Doolittle: The Chicago White Sox are the obvious answer and the one current contender I'd call out as so many of the others are in a kind of featureless cluster of mediocrity. Chicago's start has been exhilarating and the Sox can look to teams such as the 2023 Marlins, who were able to parlay an ahead-of-schedule early-season breakout into a playoff berth. It definitely can happen, especially in this year's AL. But when you look at the likelihood of what's to come, the White Sox, on paper, still project as something like a 70-win team. Plus, as exciting as they've been, Munetaka Murakami, Davis Martin & Co. still have the run differential of a well-below-.500 team. The White Sox can certainly keep it up, but the math is against them.Schoenfield: The White Sox are fun with Murakami bashing home runs and Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas and Sam Antonacci providing offensive support, but the lineup isn't deep, the rotation is shaky behind the red-hot Martin (7-1, 2.04 ERA), and Murakami and Martin probably won't keep performing at this level. Going from 102 losses -- never mind an MLB-record 121 losses two seasons ago -- to the playoffs would be one of the more remarkable season-to-season turnarounds in MLB history, but let's see if there is enough depth here to get through 162 games.Same thing with the Athletics, although anything is possible in the AL West. Shea Langeliers and Nick Kurtz have been a terrific one-two, and Carlos Cortes has been a big surprise, but the rest of the offense has been mediocre. The pitching staff ranks in the bottom third in the majors in strikeout rate, an indicator that, as with the White Sox, getting through 162 games will be a tough ask.How many teams will win 100 games this season, and who will finish with the most wins?Gonzalez: With all due respect to the Rays and Milwaukee Brewers, the answer is one -- the Braves. You might be surprised to learn that no team reached 100 wins the previous two years. That includes the Los Angeles Dodgers, who tend to slow-play their pitchers back from injury and thus no longer place enough importance on the regular season to get there. The Yankees and Mariners would have been my other choices at the start of the season, but the Yankees' division might prove too difficult and the Mariners are off to too bad a start. That brings us to the Braves. Yes, the NL is tougher than the AL. But they've been dominant all year, they boast what might be the most complete roster in the sport, and they seem to only be getting better.Olney: The Rays, Braves and Brewers will get there. Tampa Bay is legit, with its diverse offense and a deep pitching staff, and it seems inevitable that Atlanta will add to fill needs before the trade deadline. (Twins center fielder Byron Buxton, born and raised in Baxley, Georgia, could be a perfect fit if he waives his no-trade clause to go back home.) Milwaukee is stacked with big arms: Only three teams have generated more strikeouts, and the Brewers have allowed the fewest homers. They'll continue to dominate in the regular season.The funny thing is: The Dodgers won't get to 100 wins, but they'll still be viewed as the favorites going into the playoffs, due to their star power and postseason success.Rogers: The Braves and Rays are on the right pace, with the latter team residing in the right league to get it done. There is just so much mediocrity in the AL that the Rays are gobbling up wins at a pace no one could have predicted. They seem to know who they are and how to win more than others who should be finding their stride by now. Tampa Bay is taking advantage of a downturn happening around it. Atlanta always had the talent. If the Braves stay healthy, they will have one of those years where everything clicks and 100 wins will be in their grasp. The July trade deadline will bolster their hopes as well.
