EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsAnd then there were four.The 2026 NBA playoffs have reached the conference finals, with two epic matchups to decide which two teams will battle for the Larry O'Brien Trophy.The East finals feature two franchises -- the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers -- that were picked as preseason co-favorites to win the conference. Now, stars such as Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell and James Harden will decide that title on the court.The Knicks have had plenty of time to prepare. They finished off their second-round sweep eight days ago, while the Cavs had to win a Game 7 on the road to advance.But that showdown is the undercard to a West finals that has the potential to be an all-time great. Back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous Alexander leads the Oklahoma City Thunder's repeat bid, while Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs -- already far ahead of schedule -- look to skip all the steps and break through for a stunning championship.What will matter most in the conference finals? ESPN's Tim Bontemps talked to multiple NBA scouts, breaking down the keys to each series, and our NBA insiders answered the questions that could determine who moves on to Finals.Jump to a series:Thunder vs. SpursKnicks vs. CavaliersWest finals: (1) Thunder vs. (2) SpursHow Thunder got hereFirst round: Def. PHX 4-0Conf. semis: Def. LAL 4-0How Spurs got hereFirst round: Def. POR 4-1Conf. semis: Def. MIN 4-2Can OKC's elite perimeter defenders make the Spurs pay -- on the other end of the floor?The Spurs dared Oklahoma City's trio of perimeter stoppers -- Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso -- to beat them with their jump shots during the teams' five regular-season meetings. It's a sensible strategy, prioritizing packing the paint to clog the driving lanes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, often by having Victor Wembanyama assigned to one of the role players and sagging far off of them. It was also successful.Caruso was 5-for-21 from 3-point range against San Antonio, including a 2-for-12 performance during the Spurs' Christmas Day win at Paycom Center. Wallace was also 5-for-21 from long range and had a team-worst minus-32 in 131 minutes. Dort was a respectable 8-for-21, but the Thunder's offense sputtered with him on the floor against the Spurs, scoring 107.5 points per 100 possessions, more than 10 points worse than Oklahoma City's norm.The Thunder can turn to sharpshooters Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain, but perimeter defense is at a premium against the dynamic San Antonio backcourt trio of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.There's also risk in giving up good looks to proven championship role players, especially if the first couple of rounds carry over. Caruso, Dort and Wallace combined to go 40-for-100 on 3s as the Thunder swept the Suns and Lakers. -- Tim MacMahonWill the Spurs' lack of playoff experience hurt them?Negligibly, if at all.This answer would be different if this was the first round, but San Antonio has fought through two series to get here, experiencing different forms of adversity along the way. First, Wembanyama face-planted in Game 2 of the opening round, forcing him to miss one outing due to a concussion. Then, in Round 2, an ill-timed elbow by Wembanyama to the jaw and neck of Naz Reid led to an ejection. In both rounds, the Spurs showed they can thrive playing through increased postseason physicality. During the regular season, San Antonio's 4-1 record against the Thunder this season also showed it wasn't at all in awe. One of those wins came in the NBA Cup semifinals, an early-season taste of playoff atmosphere against the defending champs. -- Michael C. WrightStat that could define the seriesWembanyama averaged just 25 minutes per game in five meetings with Oklahoma City this season, because he was on a minutes limit as he worked his way back from injury. And the Spurs still went 4-1 in those games because they were plus-50 in Wembanyama's 125 minutes (and minus-24 without him). Surely, Wembanyama will get more playing time in this series, which means the Thunder need to play much better when he's on the floor to return to the Finals. -- Zach KramScout's take, on the defensive battle:"No matter what your roster is, you have to take care of the ball [against OKC], because if you don't it's automatic points. If the Spurs can set their defense with the personnel and coaching they have, they can guard OKC. But they can't guard them if they are turning the ball over. That's a huge piece of the puzzle and that's the first thing I'm looking for.""I think having Victor is the great equalizer to everything the Thunder do. I think they have the athleticism, the switching and the footspeed to be able to compete defensively to be able to guard OKC, and enough different looks to throw at Shai. And on the other end, the reality is the Thunder are as dominant as they are because of their defense. They're one of the best defenses I've ever seen."Head-to-head in 2025-26: Spurs 4, Thunder 1(3) Knicks vs. (4) CavaliersHow Knicks got hereFirst round: Def. ATL 4-2Conf. semis: Def. PHI 4-0How Cavaliers got hereFirst round: Def. TOR 4-3Conf. semis: Def. DET 4-3Can the Knicks offense keep rolling?It's difficult to see why not. Cleveland will probably experience some Game 1 shock considering neither the Raptors nor Pistons are particularly impressive offensive teams, while the Knicks have had nothing but time to fine tune after blitzing through the Atlanta Hawks in six games and the 76ers in a sweep.The Cavaliers discovered some toughness in Sunday's Game 7 road win, but will that carry over? Will Mobley and Allen be comfortable defending Towns on the perimeter with cutters and screens all around?Perhaps the Cavs will simply fight fire with fire and turn Donovan Mitchell loose, but everything in the East bracket has been laid out perfectly for the Knicks, and they've taken full advantage thus far. Don't expect that to change. -- Vincent GoodwillHow do Cleveland's bigs match up against KAT 2.0?Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley have been maligned throughout their careers as not physical enough, so much so that speculation swirled about whether the team would eventually be better off splitting them up. But during these playoffs, Allen and Mobley have responded with narrative-changing performances. They faced physical and tough defenses in Toronto and Detroit and by the end of each series, it was the Cavs bigs who won the interior battle.Allen rose to the occasion to score 20 points in both of Cleveland's Game 7s this postseason. Mobley flashed the all around skill the Cavs have envisioned for years, a matchup problem on offense and one of the best interior defenders in the league. Knicks big man Karl Anthony-Towns will present their most skilled matchup issue yet, especially considering Towns is playing the best basketball of his career. -- Jamal CollierStat that could define the seriesOn average, New York's starters have played 309 minutes this postseason, while Cleveland's starters have played 460. That whopping 49% gap makes sense, given the Knicks' second-round sweep and numerous blowout wins, compared to the Cavaliers' multiple seven-game series.But with the conference finals on an every-other-day schedule, the extra wear and tear on the Cavaliers could prove crucial. Does Cleveland have the stamina for another long series? Teams that needed seven games in both the first and second rounds are just 1-4 in the conference finals, according to ESPN Research; the 2008 Celtics won, while the 2020 Nuggets, 2016 Raptors, 2006 Suns and 2003 Mavericks all lost. -- KramScout's take, on two Knicks keys:"How Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be used, that's the huge difference-maker. When [New York] wins games, he's heavily involved. They're learning how to play off of one another. Jalen [Brunson] knows when to get touches for people and how to get everyone involved. But it all depends on if OG [Anunoby] is healthy. ... [If] they go smaller, that's what the Cavaliers will want."Head-to-head in 2025-26: Knicks 2, Cavaliers 1
