EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsIt's that time of year again! NHL teams who did not make the Stanley Cup playoffs will be laser-focused on lottery balls drawn at the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Tuesday. With so many possibilities and intrigue around the draft class, there are bound to be surprises.There is no consensus on any player except Gavin McKenna, and even he has scouts questioning whether he should be the first player off the board. If your team needs a high-end defenseman, this is the year. There are a handful of prospects projected to become foundational pieces on the top pair.My projections model is most heavily favored in this iteration of the rankings, with a few adjustments made. For a refresher, the model weighs scoring statistics from the current season and last season, league strength, tracking statistics (defensive, physical and transition play), age, size and injuries. The injury factor is only weighed as a function of games played given the impact on sample size for projection volatility. The model has five outputs:NHL ceiling: A player's peak if everything goes rightNHL floor: Worst playing outcome for prospectNHL probability: Probability the player plays 200 NHL gamesMost likely tier: What the player is most likely to be in the NHL based on statistical comparablesStatistical comparable: A comparable player in their draft year, based on NHL production equivalency, position, and sizeThe biggest change this year is the addition of a statistical comparable. Note: This is not about what the comparable player has become in the NHL; it is a comparable to the player in their draft year, before being selected. The comparison accounts for the player's position, NHL production equivalency, and size (to a lesser extent). It is not a projection of what the prospect will become in the NHL. Example: Chase Reid's statistical comparable is Evan Bouchard. That does not mean Reid is going to become Bouchard, it means they are statistically comparable players in their respective draft years.There are certainly some surprises on this draft ranking, and notably this is not how teams build their internal rankings. Players who appear that are lower down in the consensus lists -- or players who are not on this ranking who are consensus first-round picks -- should not be surprising. Given the model, this is likely related to production and statistical comparables. If a player has strong statistical comparables and produced well according to NHL equivalency, their projection and probability will be stronger. Players with strong 2024-2025 seasons (Ryan Roobroeck) are higher than consensus, because the model does not ignore that production and it raises their overall prospect value score.Once more scouting and anecdotal information is accounted for in the coming weeks, this list will change. Here is how the top 32 rankings are shaping up right now:1. Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State University (NCAA)NHL ceiling: StarNHL floor: Second lineNHL probability: 88%Most likely tier: Top lineStatistical comparable: Clayton Keller2. Ivar Stenberg, LW/RW, Frolunda HC (SHL)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Second lineNHL probability: 91%Most likely tier: Top lineStatistical comparable: William Nylander3. Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)NHL ceiling: Top pairNHL floor: Top fourNHL probability: 80%Most likely tier: Top pairStatistical comparable: Zach Werenski4. Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)NHL ceiling: Top pairNHL floor: Middle pairNHL probability: 65%Most likely tier: Top pairStatistical comparable: Evan Bouchard5. Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL)NHL ceiling: Top pairNHL floor: No. 5 defensemanNHL probability: 71%Most likely tier: Top fourStatistical comparable: Noah Hanifin6. Nikita Klepov, F, Saginaw (OHL)NHL ceiling: StarNHL floor: Middle sixNHL probability: 84%Most likely tier: Top lineStatistical comparable: Kyle Connor7. Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA)NHL ceiling: Top pairNHL floor: No. 5 defensemanNHL probability: 70%Most likely tier: Top fourStatistical comparable: Aaron Ekblad8. Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Middle sixNHL probability: 82%Most likely tier: Second lineStatistical comparable: Valeri Nichushkin9. Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Third lineNHL probability: 74%Most likely tier: Second lineStatistical comparable: Matty Beniers10. Adam Novotny, LW/RW, Peterborough (OHL)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 77%Most likely tier: Second lineStatistical comparable: Timo Meier11. Mathis Preston, F, Vancouver (WHL)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 73%Most likely tier: Middle sixStatistical comparable: Oliver Bjorkstrand12. Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Liiga)NHL ceiling: Middle sixNHL floor: Fourth lineNHL probability: 89%Most likely tier: Third lineStatistical comparable: Eetu Luostarinen13. Viggo Bjorck, C/RW, Djurgardens IF (SHL)NHL ceiling: Second lineNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 63%Most likely tier: Middle sixStatistical comparable: Connor McMichael14. Wyatt Cullen, F, USNTDPNHL ceiling: Top sixNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 57%Most likely tier: Middle sixStatistical comparable: Travis Konecny15. Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 59%Most likely tier: Middle-six centerStatistical comparable: Nick Schmaltz16. Yegor Shilov, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Middle sixNHL probability: 61%Most likely tier: Second lineStatistical comparable: Jared McCann17. Ryan Roobroeck, C, Niagara (OHL)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Fourth lineNHL probability: 85%Most likely tier: Middle sixStatistical comparable: Sean Couturier18. Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Liiga)NHL ceiling: Top fourNHL floor: Depth defensemanNHL probability: 52%Most likely tier: Middle pairStatistical comparable: Ryan Pulock19. Ilia Morozov, F, Miami University (NCAA)NHL ceiling: Top sixNHL floor: Third lineNHL probability: 44%Most likely tier: Middle sixStatistical comparable: Will Cuylle20. J.P. Hurlbert, F, Kamloops (WHL)NHL ceiling: Top sixNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 41%Most likely tier: Second lineStatistical comparable: Nikolaj Ehlers21. Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver (WHL)NHL ceiling: Top pairNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 40%Most likely tier: Bottom pairStatistical comparable: Bowen Byram22. Ryder Cali, C, North Bay (OHL)NHL ceiling: Second lineNHL floor: Fourth lineNHL probability: 85%Most likely tier: Bottom sixStatistical comparable: Jordan Kyrou23. Adam Valentini, F, University of Michigan (NCAA)NHL ceiling: Top sixNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 66%Most likely tier: Middle sixStatistical comparable: Bryan Rust24. Tommy Bleyl, D, Moncton (QMJHL)NHL ceiling: Top pairNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 42%Most likely tier: Middle pairStatistical comparable: Samuel Girard25. Brooks Rogowski, C, Oshawa Generals (OHL)NHL ceiling: Second lineNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 86%Most likely tier: Third lineStatistical comparable: Pavel Zacha26. Oscar Hemming, F, Boston College (NCAA)NHL ceiling: Top sixNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 36%Most likely tier: Third lineStatistical comparable: Mark Stone27. Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)NHL ceiling: Top pairNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 40%Most likely tier: Middle pairStatistical comparable: Mario Ferraro28. Liam Ruck, F, Medicine Hat (WHL)NHL ceiling: Top sixNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 30%Most likely tier: Second lineStatistical comparable: Brock Boeser29. Elton Hermansson, RW/LW, MoDo (HockeyAllsvenskan)NHL ceiling: Second lineNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 29%Most likely tier: Third lineStatistical comparable: Eduard Sale30. Markus Ruck, F, Medicine HatNHL ceiling: Top sixNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 25%Most likely tier: Second lineStatistical comparable: Brendan Brisson31. Marcus Nordmark, LW, Djurgardens IF (U20 Nationell)NHL ceiling: Top lineNHL floor: Non-NHLNHL probability: 63%Most likely tier: Middle sixStatistical comparable: Jake Neighbours32. Maddox Dagenais, C, Quebec (QMJHL)NHL ceiling: Second lineNHL floor: Bottom sixNHL probability: 43%Most likely tier: Third lineStatistical comparable: Danny Nelson
