EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsThe PGA Tour is back at Trump National Doral's Blue Monster Course in Miami, a 7,739-yard par-72 that hasn't hosted a Tour event since Adam Scott won here in 2016.There's water on 16 of 18 holes, five par-4s over 450 yards, four par-5s average just over 600 yards, and three par-3s over 200.This course doesn't really have a soft spot, so the player that wins here drives it long and straight, hits long irons with laser-point accuracy, and doesn't flinch on Sunday.Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.Best betsHow to play Scottie Scheffler Full odds (with ties):Top 5 -148 To win +310Scheffler is the best player in the field on pure talent and consistency. He's top-five, if not top-three, in nearly every course-relevant category, putting him in a different stratosphere from everyone else.The one relative weakness is his approach play, which has been shaky most of the season and ranks 18th in the field. It's the softest part of an otherwise dominant profile. Scheffler's 200-plus yard band barely cracks the top 60, which directly maps to a course that hits that range repeatedly on par-3s and long par-4s. It's not enough to fade because his profile is too dominant.Since Feb. 2025, Scheffler has 18 top-five finishes in 28 events and seven wins, including one win in 2026. He has back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Masters and RBC. The (-148) is correctly pricing a player who converts at that rate.The question is your bankroll risk. The most relevant red flag is a T24 at Bay Hill last month, where Scheffler lost nearly three strokes with his irons, but he gained nearly seven at Augusta. That volatility with his irons is a risk, but if you're building a card, the (-148) should not be thought of as a value play but as a legitimate play. The hit rate justifies the price.The practical argument for the (+310) win over the Top 5 is that Scheffler's floor at this course is probably a Top 10. He doesn't blow up. The Top 5 pays you for something he consistently does, but the outright pays you for the outcome that historical data supports, at a price the market has correctly set.Basically, if you're picking one, outright is the better wager, but the Top 5 gives you a cushion. Scheffler is the most likely player to be in contention Sunday regardless of which number you take.Collin Morikawa Top 10 +152 (with ties) Full odds:Top 5 +330 To win +1950Morikawa has the best approach in the field, is elite from tee to green, and has a real win ceiling. The Bermuda putting is the only caveat to confidently backing him as an outright, but a Top 10 doesn't require the putter to be on -- staying neutral can get the job done. If the putting shows up, he can win. A back injury left me with doubts in recent weeks but back-to-back top-seven finishes has shut that down. His Top 5 and outright odds say value. He's arguably the best fit on the course outside of Scheffler.Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 -110 (with ties) Full odds:Top 10 +2200 Top 5 +495To win +3200His odds aren't exciting, but when you're getting a reasonable price on a player who can finish at least in the top 10, that's worth a look. Matsuyama's long iron precision in key distance bands is among some of the best on my narrowed list of players, and he's top-10 from 200-plus yards. His Bermuda putting is positive and he's consistent on more difficult courses. The off-the-tee deficit is real (60th), but his approach combined with his putting quality can take some of the hits.Daily fantasy plays and fadesPlay daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.PlaysAkshay Bhatia, $8,100: He's the most intriguing to me this week. He's the second-best iron player in the field, his long par-4 performance is a direct match and his Bermuda putting is neutral to positive. The only downside, he's 48th off the tee. If he's not finding fairways on the water holes, it doesn't matter how good his irons are if he's already a step behind.I say intriguing because he won at Bay Hill and his Top 20 odds are +135. But he won by gaining nearly 11 strokes with his putting. That's not a repeatable trait. Top 20 is conservative, Top 10 is reasonable for his profile abilities, and his outright price (+5200) entices because the market has him buried with these odds. They say long shot but the data says Top 5-capable. His ceiling makes him a great DFS option.FadesCameron Young $10,200: He needs to win to justify this price. He looks like a fit with really strong approach numbers, but this course asks for precision from 175 yards out over and over again. That's where he falls short. He's outside the top tier from that distance. He's really good at getting the ball close to the hole overall, but not from every distance. Farther away, he loses his edge.He can still hit plenty of good shots and hang around because the rest of his game is solid, especially on par-5s, but this setup is built for players who separate with long irons. If betting him or playing him in DFS, you're asking him to win in the exact area he's not elite.Alex Smalley $7,100: Coming off a T2 in the pairing event at the Zurich Classic after a T14 at Valero, Smalley is a long par-4 hitter, top-10 in the field. But everything else doesn't fit the course; he's outside the top 35 in approach, 68th in long par-5s, a negative Bermuda putter, negative on par 3 ... all of which point away from what's needed to contend. The par-4 fit alone doesn't carry a full workload here. It's hard to trust him despite solid results this year.Gary Woodland $7,400: Woodland will get attention because he had a PGA win just a few weeks ago in Houston. He's ranked eighth off the tee, but everything else is a problem for this course specifically. His irons could be a hit or miss. After losing strokes on approach in four straight, he has now gained in three of his past four starts. The course demands elite long iron play and Woodland just doesn't have it. He's outside the top 50 in strokes gained par 3 of 200-plus yards. There are three par-3s over 205 yards, which means almost guaranteed stroke loss over the course of four rounds. Negative putting on this surface without the approach play to compensate makes him fade.
