EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsCollege football's coaching carousel spins at different speeds, often alternating between chaotic and calm, depending on the year.After a relatively uneventful cycle in 2024-25, the most recent carousel moved fast and furiously, claiming coaches from the expected (Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy, Florida's Billy Napier) to the surprising (Penn State's James Franklin, LSU's Brian Kelly) to the downright shocking (Michigan's Sherrone Moore). The SEC and Big Ten had a combined nine coaching changes, including at four programs -- Michigan, LSU, Auburn and Florida -- that have won national titles in the past 20 seasons. All four power conferences had multiple coaching changes.The scope of the carousel and the programs involved make it easy to forget that the number of coaching changes could have been much higher. Several coaches barely escaped with their jobs after disappointing seasons, for reasons ranging from hefty buyouts to administrative flux. They will enter the fall under undeniable pressure to deliver, and midseason changes are possible, if not likely, again.The upcoming carousel might not be as robust as its predecessor, but there is potential for another wild cycle, especially if certain jobs open in the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12. Although we tend to view the coaching hot seat through the lens of who might be fired, there are other reasons for changes, including the NFL, which will continue to assess Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman, Oregon's Dan Lanning and other college coaches.To help sort out what might happen in the coaching ranks during and after the 2026 season, the tiers are back.Jump to a tier:The hottest | Want it to workIt'll cost us | Need progressRetirement watch | Group of 6The hottest of hotMike Norvell, Florida State SeminolesNorvell is atop this list for the second straight year. After FSU opened the 2025 season with a rousing win against Alabama and started 3-0, the team dropped its first four ACC games and went on to finish 5-7, missing a bowl for the second straight season after a 13-0 start and a conference title in 2023. The lucrative contract Norvell received after Alabama pursued him in early 2024 continued to work in his favor, as did Florida State's precarious financial situation. But Norvell clearly must deliver better results, likely eight or more wins, to secure his position for 2027 and beyond. FSU has a challenging first half of its schedule that includes SMU (home), Alabama (road), Virginia (home), Miami (road) and Louisville (road). A poor start could lead to a midseason change.Luke Fickell, Wisconsin BadgersThe key difference between Fickell and some other coaches who appear here is that his athletic director, Chris McIntosh, remains firmly in his corner. McIntosh boldly hired Fickell from Cincinnati in late 2022, rather than promoting program legend Jim Leonhard to the permanent role. Fickell's performance is tied directly to McIntosh, who retained the coach despite a six-game slide in 2025 that featured consecutive shutouts for the first time since 1977. Wisconsin pledged more financial support for the roster and other areas and showed some late improvement with home wins against Washington and Illinois. The Badgers open 2026 against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field but have a mostly favorable schedule that doesn't include Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State or Michigan. Fickell definitely has a chance, but he can't afford a repeat of the past two seasons.Dave Aranda, Baylor BearsBaylor didn't get through 2025 without a major change, but it came at athletic director, as Mack Rhoades resigned after more than nine years in charge. Aranda, who is 22-28 since leading Baylor to a Big 12 championship in 2021, might not have retained his job had Rhoades remained in charge of the athletic department. He now must win over new AD Doug McNamee and reestablish the Bears as a Big 12 contender. Baylor's defense has slipped the past two seasons, ranking 105th in points allowed (29.5) during the span. The team will try to extract consistency from quarterback transfer DJ Lagway and navigate a schedule that begins with Auburn in Atlanta.Mike Locksley, Maryland TerrapinsLocksley's ability to recruit and build a roster is undeniable. Maryland has produced five or more selections in two of the past three NFL drafts and signed the nation's No. 2 overall recruit in defensive end Zion Elee, out of Baltimore. But Locksley has struggled to translate talent to wins, as Maryland has posted identical records -- 4-8 overall, 1-8 in Big Ten play -- the past two seasons. Athletic director Jim Smith, who took over in May, is giving Locksley another year to get things right, as quarterback Malik Washington and others return. But anything less than a bowl appearance should prompt change, as Maryland has a fairly manageable schedule that doesn't include Indiana or Oregon.We want this to workShane Beamer, South Carolina GamecocksBeamer has undeniably improved South Carolina's profile, recording AP Top 25 finishes in 2022 and 2024, and beating top-12 Clemson teams in both seasons. But memories are short in the SEC, and the Gamecocks backslid last season, finishing 4-8 with just one conference victory. Beamer and the staff did good work in the offseason, retaining quarterback LaNorris Sellers, defensive end Dylan Stewart and other key players, and adding Kendal Briles as offensive coordinator. The 48-year-old Beamer often talks of his affinity for South Carolina and sees the job as more of a destination than other coaches would. But a repeat of 2025, especially with Sellers back, would be difficult to overcome. Athletic director Jeremiah Donati did not hire Beamer.Bill O'Brien, Boston College EaglesAfter losing coach Jeff Hafley to the Green Bay Packers in January 2024, Boston College appeared to score a late-cycle coup in O'Brien, who brought NFL and college head coaching experience and grew up not far from campus. O'Brien delivered seven wins in his first season, but the team stumbled badly last fall, dropping 10 games for the first time since 2012 and winning just once in ACC play. Boston College isn't in a position to cycle through coaches every few years, but another season resembling 2025, when the Eagles were outscored 278-166 in ACC play, could prompt conversations about a change.It's going to cost usLincoln Riley, USC TrojansFour years of Riley's leadership haven't yielded a conference title or a College Football Playoff appearance, as USC remains one of the more notable programs never to have made the playoff field. Riley has asked for patience, and USC has made key internal upgrades and signed the nation's No. 1 recruiting class this year. Riley's contract with the school -- brokered by previous athletic director Mike Bohn, not current AD Jen Cohen -- makes a potential split harder, even though USC is receiving Big Ten revenue. Another complicating factor is the 2026 schedule, as USC faces Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Penn State this season, while getting all but Indiana and Penn State at home. Still, the Trojans could have a better team and still miss the CFP, which could lead to a decision on Riley.Progress neededJeff Lebby, Mississippi State BulldogsLebby's team took a step forward from Year 1 to Year 2, especially in nonleague play, where the Bulldogs went 4-0 and stunned then-No. 12 Arizona State, the defending Big 12 champion. Mississippi State struggled in SEC play at 1-7, and although it lost two games in overtime and another by two points, it was outscored 128-67 in the final three league games. Athletic director Zac Selmon hired Lebby, who engineered some improvement on offense last fall. But at 1-15 in SEC games, Lebby must deliver some meaningful results this fall to ensure a third season in Starkville.Retirement watchBill Belichick, North Carolina Tar HeelsWhen Belichick surprisingly took the UNC job at 72, he wasn't seen as a long-term fixture in Chapel Hill. He's back for Year 2 after a bumpy, four-win debut that brought more headlines about his personal life and the program's internal challenges than any on-field success. If UNC has a rerun of what happened in 2025, Belichick could move on to something else. Even a successful second season won't turn down retirement talk, as Belichick turns 74 in April. He's signed through the 2029 season.Kirk Ferentz, Iowa HawkeyesFerentz turned 70 on Aug. 1 and weeks later became the Big Ten's all-time coaching wins leader. He guided Iowa to an impressive 9-4 season with all four defeats (including to eventual national champion Indiana) coming by five points or fewer. Ferentz is healthy and energetic, and still enjoys coaching despite some of the major changes in the sport. His age and longevity at Iowa, where he will begin his 28th season as head coach this fall, will keep him in this category until he hangs it up. What's left for Ferentz to accomplish in Iowa City? The school's first CFP appearance would be a fitting way to cap off a decorated career.Deion Sanders, Colorado BuffaloesSanders enters his fourth season at Colorado and has already exceeded some initial projections for how long he would be in Boulder. He enjoys living and working there and has significant influence on how Colorado operates its program. But Sanders' repeated health problems, including bladder removal and reconstruction surgery last spring, could ultimately limit how long he coaches the Buffaloes, who went from nine wins in 2024 to nine losses last season. The question around Sanders, who turns 59 in August, seems less about whether he would leave Colorado for another college job, but how long his health will hold up. He'll have another chance this fall to elevate the program again.Group of 6Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersAfter Rick Stockstill's 18-year run as coach ended in 2023, Middle Tennessee made a notable hire in Mason, who had coached in the state at Vanderbilt and brought in significant Power 4 experience. But Mason hasn't been able to elevate a program that made seven bowl appearances under Stockstill between 2013 and 2022, as Middle Tennessee has endured consecutive 3-9 seasons. Since guiding Vanderbilt to a bowl game in 2018, Mason is just 9-35 as an FBS coach. He will need better results to ensure a fourth season in Murfreesboro.Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan EaglesEMU was a job being watched by the coaching industry late last season, as the team endured its second straight losing season. Creighton accomplished what no one else could in Ypsilanti, guiding Eastern Michigan to six bowls in eight seasons from 2016 to 2023, including four straight. The team had just one bowl appearance before his arrival, way back in 1987. But elevated performance also raises expectations, and after 12 seasons as EMU's coach, Creighton likely must reach bowl eligibility again to ensure the trajectory is favorable.Dell McGee, Georgia State PanthersGeorgia State hired McGee very late in the 2023-24 cycle, which could give him a little more time to get things right. But the team regressed from Year 1 to Year 2, finishing 1-11 overall, 0-8 in Sun Belt play and 0-11 against FBS opponents. The Panthers were outscored 454-237 last fall. McGee arrived with deep recruiting roots in the state and a previous stop with the program from 2014 to 2015. Minimal progress might be enough to secure a fourth season, but he has to start winning in the Sun Belt, where he's just 1-15 at the helm.
