EmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsEach week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy basketball managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised.Don't be surprised if ... Minnesota Timberwolves PF Julius Randle finishes top 10 in fantasy pointsIt would be unfair to say nobody wanted Randle on fantasy draft day, but then again, few seemed to covet this otherwise productive player who always seems to slide in drafts past what his production dictates. Randle enters Thursday with the 10th-most ESPN fantasy points, 49 points ahead of his far more ballyhooed teammate Anthony Edwards. Few would argue Randle is the better player, but because of durability and all-around game, the underrated Randle piles on the fantasy points, too.Randle remains underrated, and with the Timberwolves in a race for playoff positioning, every game matters, and he is at little risk of sitting out. This is not the version of Randle who averaged 25.1 PPG and 10 RPG for the New York Knicks in 2022-23, before the stunning trade for Karl-Anthony Towns (who is 23rd in fantasy points), but Randle currently averages 21.9 PPG (up from 18.7 PPG last season) and 6.9 RPG, with 5.3 APG, a career-high 1.1 SPG and 1.5 3PG. His 48.9% FG% is his best since 2018-19, his lone New Orleans Pelicans season. His 82.1 FT% is a career mark, and his 2.6 TPG his lowest since his Los Angeles Lakers days. This is an efficient player, finally.Edwards, of course, is one of the signature scorers in the league, averaging 29.6 PPG, third behind Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, perhaps an MVP candidate. Nobody would trade Edwards for Randle in fantasy, but Edwards, while scoring more traditional points than ever, has seen his marks in rebounding, assists and 3-pointers fall, and his free throw shooting is down. Edwards also missed 10 games this season. Randle has missed nary a game. This is how Randle has more points. It is deceiving, in a way, but Randle deserves credit. For some reason, he is the lone top 20 fantasy scorer rostered in fewer than 99% of leagues. Still!What would it cost to trade for Edwards in fantasy these days? The No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA draft is a clear first-round fantasy talent every season, so it will be expensive. Randle, however, averaging 39.7 fPPG (up from 33.3 fPPG last season) is one of the top bargain options in fantasy, perennially, and he remains underrated. Trade less for his services and enjoy it more!Another Timberwolves thought: C Rudy Gobert returned Tuesday from a one-game suspension for flagrant fouls and yanked down 19 rebounds against Portland, upping his season mark to 11.4 RPG, fourth in the NBA. Gobert boasts more rebounds than points! He has never finished a season like this before. Let's admit Gobert is rather underappreciated as well. The free throw shooting (50.6%) is a big bummer, but it is hard to find a more consistent big man for the past decade. While the Edwards-Randle race for Timberwolves fantasy supremacy is intriguing, so is Gobert versus teammate and reserve Naz Reid (Gobert leads by 39 points).Don't be surprised if ... Indiana Pacers PG Andrew Nembhard finishes as a top 50 fantasy optionNembhard, a ninth-round pick in ESPN ADP only because Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in last season's playoffs (and will miss the season), was supposed to handle a larger role and produce numbers. Did anyone expect him to average 17.4 PPG and 7.4 APG? Probably not. Nembhard was a complementary player during his first three NBA seasons, averaging 10 PPG and 5 APG last season as somewhat of a deep-league, fantasy asset. This season, Nembhard averages 33.7 fPPG. His 7.4 APG rank seventh in the league. He may not get any notice for the league's Most Improved Player award (Portland's Deni Avdija and Detroit's Jalen Duren are stars), but fantasy managers sure noticed.In fact, one can argue Nembhard is one of the season's better surprises for roto/categories formats (where the assists are so critical), comparing production versus ADP. Avdija and Duren were sixth-round APD picks. Utah Jazz PG Keyonte George (ankle) wasn't, and he scores 23.8 PPG, but he hasn't helped us lately. What Atlanta Hawks SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker (19.8 PPG) has done is quite stunning, too, but his impact is more for points formats. Nembhard is a legit point guard, and next season he may have to go back to being undrafted in fantasy again because Haliburton returns. What an odd situation.Other thoughtsThe next game for Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball will be his 50th, already more than in any season since 2021-22. Give Ball credit for missing only 10 of the first 59 games, because his lack of durability was the main/only reason to fade him in fantasy drafts. Can we draw an imaginary line to Ball staying (mostly) healthy while also adjusting his game to shooting far less? Ball averaged 25.2 PPG last season. Despite draining 10 3-pointers in a recent game, he seems unlikely to average 20 PPG this season. He averages 38.2 fPPG, down from 42.4 last season, but I think we would all take that decrease in production if he continues his pace to suit up for 65-plus games.More Hornets: A month ago I wrote that Hornets rookie SG Kon Knueppel could lead the NBA in 3-pointers. Knueppel became the first to reach 200 3-pointers in Tuesday's win over the Bulls (Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell is 10 3-pointers behind). Others record more 3-pointers per game, but Knueppel has been more durable. Since he also hits these shots at a solid 43.6% clip (10th in the league), it bears repeating that Knueppel may average more like 25 PPG next season. Dallas Mavericks SF/PG/PF Cooper Flagg figures to win the Rookie of the Year award, and he is awesome, too, but Knueppel is going to score more fantasy points. Each may be a top 20 fantasy option next season.It may or may not be too early to see what Brooklyn Nets PG Egor Demin is for keeper leagues. The 6-foot-8 Demin, who turns 20 on March 3, certainly can play point guard, but the Nets don't really ask him to do so in any traditional sense. Most of Demin's shots are 3-pointers, and there is upside there for scoring. Brooklyn's leader in assists is C Nic Claxton at 4.1 APG, which is fine, but he isn't exactly Alperen Sengun, either. Depending on whom the Nets add in the draft, Demin could run this offense, and his second year may be exciting for fantasy, something like 17 PPG, 6 APG, 3.2 3PG. Hmm, could this be Payton Pritchard?In a league with so many teams (like a third of the league) tanking, it is nice to see New Orleans Pelicans SG/PG Dejounte Murray make his season debut in late-February. Trae Young and Ivica Zubac are probably healthier than Murray right now, but Murray is the one pushing to play, while those fellows may be done (and not play for their new teams). It is odd that Murray remains available in more than 60% of ESPN leagues. Perhaps he will not average last year's numbers (17.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 7.4 APG, 2 SPG), but if the Pelicans let him play - they have little reason not to, as tanking is not an issue - he may be a top 50 investment the rest of the season.Down goes another member of the Utah Jazz! It stinks losing C Jusuf Nurkic, since he was averaging a double-double (10.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG, with 4.8 APG!) and he probably could have played through this nose injury if he and the team wanted/needed, but at least we have clarity. He is done. With Joel Embiid, for example, we never have clarity. Anyway, second-year PF Kyle Filipowski really has no excuse now. He is out there in 75% of ESPN leagues and he averages 12.7 PPG and 8.2 RPG as a starter. This is a decent investment. Filipowski and PG Isaiah Collier could be the Billy Volek/Drew Bennett of this year's fantasy playoff season (look 'em up).
